North Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November 2013

A summary/analysis post will follow this one. Please read the earlier posts  here:

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November

2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November

2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November

References:

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2013_Atlantic_hurricane_season
2. Sidorenkov, N.S., 2009: The Interaction Between Earth’s Rotation and Geophysical Processes, Weinheim: Wiley.
3. NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Reports -  2013 Hurricane Season
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2013&basin=atl


CLAIM

Tropical depressions or storms that appear in the Atlantic Ocean between the Equator and 25.0 degrees North during the North Atlantic Hurricane season, will do so on dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity of the Earth's rotation. [N.B. the dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity occur close to the times when the Moon crosses the Earth's equator or reaches lunar standstill (i.e. the Moon is furthest north or south of the Equator).]   

Of the 15 events in the 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane Season, 

a) 13 Tropical Depressions/Tropical Storms/Hurricanes support the claim above. 

i) 0 to 25 degrees_________Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, TD7 ?, TD8, Humberto, Igred, Jerry, Karen

ii) Extratropical (> 25 degrees)____Andrea, Lorenzo, Melissa

b) 2 Tropical Depressions/Tropical Storms/Hurricanes definitely DO NOT support the above claim. 

i) 0 to 25 degrees_________Ferdinand

ii) Extratropical (> 25 degrees)____Garielle


KEY FOR FIGURES

KW = Kelvin Wave

L = Low Pressure
TD = Tropical Depression
STS = Sub-Tropical Storm

TS = Tropical Storm
CATN = Category N Hurricane  where N = 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5.
PK = Peak Activity 

JUNE

JULY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

OCTOBER

NOVEMBER

North Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November 2014

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November

2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November

2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November

References:

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2014_Atlantic_hurricane_season
2. Sidorenkov, N.S., 2009: The Interaction Between Earth’s Rotation and Geophysical Processes, Weinheim: Wiley.
3. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2014&basin=atl
4. Brown, D.B., 2015, NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report - Hurricane Gonzalo - AL082014, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL082014_Gonzalo.pdf
5. Bevan II, J.L., 2015, NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report - Tropical Storm Dolly - AL052014, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052014_Dolly.pdf


Here are Some Details About the Buildup of North Atlantic Storms and Hurricanes.

1. Hurricane Gonzalo - 12th to 19th October 2014

The NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report on Hurricane Gonzalo 
(AL082014) states the following about the buildup of this meteorological event.

"The development of Gonzalo can be traced to a tropical wave that departed the west coast of Africa on 4 October. The wave was accompanied by a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms while it moved westward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. During this time, an upper-level trough over the subtropical eastern and central Atlantic produced strong upper-level westerly winds over the system, which prevented development. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the wave became more concentrated after the passage of an eastward-moving atmospheric Kelvin wave around 10 October. Shortly thereafter, the tropical wave passed west of the upper-level trough- axis and into an area of less hostile wind conditions, and a small surface low-pressure area formed late on 11 October. Thunderstorm activity associated with system increased in organization, and it is estimated that a tropical depression formed around 0000 UTC 12 October about 340 n mi east of the Leeward Islands."

2. Tropical Storm Dolly - 1st to 3rd September 2014

The NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report on Tropical Strom Dolly
(AL052014) states the following about the buildup of this meteorological event.

"Dolly originated from a tropical wave that moved westward from the coast of Africa on 19
August. The wave showed little distinction until it reached the eastern Caribbean Sea on 27
August, at which time the associated convection increased. Addition development was slow until
30 August, when the convection became better organized during possible interaction with an
eastward-moving atmospheric Kelvin wave. A low-pressure area formed on 31 August over the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the associated circulation and convection became better
organized on 1 September when the low reached the Bay of Campeche. It is estimated that a
tropical depression developed near 1800 UTC that day about 295 n mi east-southeast of Tampico,
Mexico." 

My Response

These two quotes show that some potential North Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms begin their lives as a wave-like disturbance in the near-equatorial North Atlantic Ocean that move west towards the Carribean and North America. At some point in their journey, the showers and thunderstorms associated with these wave-like disturbances become more concentrated and more organized, leading to the formation of either tropical lows (L) or depressions (TD).

In addition, the two quotes point out that the increasing concentration and organization of the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with these disturbances comes about through their interaction with east-ward moving atmospheric (equatorial) Kelvin waves (EKWs).

I have proposed that the easterly propagating (equatorial) Kelvin waves are generated when:

the peak in the lunar-induced tides passes through the local meridian at either 4:00 a.m. or 4:00 p.m. local time when the diurnal surface pressure is a minimum (Note: this takes place roughly once every quarter of a synodic month = 7.38 days).

http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/02/the-lunar-tidal-model-part-4.html

In addition, I have proposed that, whenever the peak of the Moon's tidal bulge crosses the Earth's equator* or whenever it reaches its maximum distance from the Earth's equator i.e. lunar standstill* (Note: this takes place roughly once every quarter of a lunar Tropical month = 6.83 days), tropical low-pressure cells are formed in the (near-equatorial) tropical oceans. In the Atlantic Ocean, these lows are generated as westerly-moving Equatorial Rossby waves that are spawned from the trailing edge of the easterly-propagating (equatorial) Kelvin waves.


[*NOTE: At these times there is an ebb (i.e. either a tidal minimum or maximum) in the lunar-induced atmospheric/oceanic tides at the Earth's equator. It is also at these times that the lunar-induced changes to the Earth's relative angular velocity (Delta Omega/Omega) reach a maximum or a minimum.]

Bottom Line: If the NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report mentions that the formation of a tropical low, depression or storm was influenced by an interaction with an easterly-propagating Kelvin Waves, it will be noted in all future figures.

Note: If the NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report indicates that the origin of the tropical low, depression or storm was Non-tropical, this will be noted, as well.

CLAIM

Tropical depressions or storms that appear in the Atlantic Ocean between the Equator and 25.0 degrees North during the North Atlantic Hurricane season, will do so on dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity of the Earth's rotation. [N.B. the dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity occur close to the times when the Moon crosses the Earth's equator or reaches lunar standstill (i.e. the Moon is furthest north or south of the Equator).]   

Of the Ten events in the 2014 North Atlantic Hurricane Season, 

a) Eight Tropical Depressions/Tropical Storms/Hurricanes support the above claim. 

i) 0 to 25 degrees_________Bertha, Christobal?, Dolly, Edouard, Gonzalo, Hanna, Hanna (Regenerated)

ii) Extratropical (> 25 degrees)____Arthur

b) Two Tropical Depressions/Tropical Storms/Hurricanes definitely DO NOT support the above claim. 

i) 0 to 25 degrees_________TD 2 (weak)

ii) Extratropical (> 25 degrees)____Fay

[Note: There is some question about Christobal]

KEY FOR FIGURES

KW = Kelvin Wave

L = Low Pressure
TD = Tropical Depression
TS = Tropical Storm
CATN = Category N Hurricane  where N = 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5.
PK = Peak Activity 

 
JUNE

JULY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

OCTOBER

NOVEMBER

There were no North Atlantic tropical depressions, storms or hurricanes in November. 

North Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November 2015

2016 Hurricane Season - June to November

2017 Hurricane Season - June to November

PRELIMINARIES

References:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2016_Atlantic_hurricane_seasonSidorenkov, N.S., 2009: The Interaction Between Earth’s Rotation and Geophysical Processes, Weinheim: Wiley.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=atl

STORM TYPES

Saffire Simpson Scale (for one minute maximum sustained winds)

Low Pressure
Tropical Depression___________<= 62 km/hr
Tropical Storm_______________ 63 to 118 km/hr
Cat. One ___________________119 to 153 km/hr
Cat. Two ___________________154 to 177 km/hr
Cat. Three__________________178 to 208 km/hr
Cat. Four ___________________209 to 251 km/hr
Cat Five ____________________ >= 252 km/hr

KEY FOR FIGURES

L = Low Pressure
TD = Tropical Depression
TS = Tropical Storm
CATN = Category N Hurricane  where N = 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5.
PK = Peak Activity

CLAIM

Tropical depressions or storms that appear in the Atlantic Ocean between the Equator and 25.0 degrees North during the North Atlantic Hurricane season, will do so on dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity of the Earth's rotation. [N.B. the dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity occur close to the times when the Moon crosses the Earth's equator or reaches lunar standstill (i.e. the Moon is furthest north or south of the Equator).]   

In the 2015 North Atlantic Hurricane Season, all of the Tropical Depressions/Tropical Storms/Hurricanes support the above claim. Even the ones that first generate at latitude greater than 25 degrees. 

a) 0 to 25 degrees_________Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Tropical Depression 9, Ida, Kate

b) Great than 25 degrees____Bill, Claudette, Henri, Joaquin  

JUNE

JULY

AUGUST

SEPTEMBER

OCTOBER

NOVEMBER

North Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November 2017

For an explanation of the following plots please read:

http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/02/the-north-atlantic-hurricane-season.html

PRELIMINARIES

References:

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2016_Atlantic_hurricane_season
Sidorenkov, N.S., 2009: The Interaction Between Earth’s Rotation and Geophysical Processes, Weinheim: Wiley.

STORM TYPES

Saffire Simpson Scale (for one minute maximum sustained winds)

Potential Tropical Cyclone
Tropical Depression___________<= 62 km/hr
Tropical Storm_______________ 63 to 118 km/hr
Cat. One ___________________119 to 153 km/hr
Cat. Two ___________________154 to 177 km/hr
Cat. Three__________________178 to 208 km/hr
Cat. Four ___________________209 to 251 km/hr
Cat Five ____________________ >= 252 km/hr

KEY FOR FIGURES

Pot# = Potential Tropical Cycle number #
TD = Tropical Depression
TS = Tropical Storm
CATN = Category N Hurricane  where N = 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5.
PK = Peak Activity
Regen. = Regenerated

Note: All but two (the exceptions being Jose and Katia) of the 15 Topical Depressions/Storms/Hurricanes that occurred during the North Atlantic Hurricane season supports the following claim that:

Tropical depressions or storms that appear in the Atlantic Ocean between the Equator and 25.0 degrees North during the North Atlantic Hurricane season, will do so on dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity of the Earth's rotation. [N.B. the dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity occur close to the times when the Moon crosses the Earth's equator or reaches lunar standstill (i.e. the Moon is furthest north or south of the Equator).]   

This claim is also supported true by 10 of the 12 Topical Depressions/Storms/Hurricanes that occurred during the Hurricane season 2016.


JUNE 2017

JULY 2017

AUGUST 2017

SEPTEMBER 2017

OCTOBER 2017

NOVEMBER 2017

The North Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November 2016

References:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2016_Atlantic_hurricane_season
Sidorenkov, N.S., 2009: The Interaction Between Earth’s Rotation and Geophysical Processes, Weinheim: Wiley.

STORM TYPES

Saffire Simpson Scale (for one minute maximum sustained winds)

Tropical Depression___________<= 62 km/hr
Tropical Storm_______________ 63 to 118 km/hr
Cat. One ___________________119 to 153 km/hr
Cat. Two ___________________154 to 177 km/hr
Cat. Three__________________178 to 208 km/hr
Cat. Four ___________________209 to 251 km/hr
Cat Five ____________________ > = 252 km/hr

This post only includes tropical depressions/storms that start in the Atlantic Ocean between the Equator and 25.0 degrees North. The reason for excluding tropical depressions and tropical storms that start further than 25.0 degrees away from the equator is that their generation may have more to do with factors related to the mid-latitudes (e.g. hanging troughs, intruding cold fronts etc.) rather than the equatorial regions.

HYPOTHESIS TO BE TESTED

Tropical depressions or storms that appear in the Atlantic Ocean between the Equator and 25.0 degrees North during the 2016 North Atlantic Hurricane season, will do so on dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity of the Earth's rotation. [N.B. the dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity occur close to the times when the Moon crosses the Earth's equator or reaches lunar standstill (i.e. the Moon is furthest north or south of the Equator).]  

Summary of Results  (See the graphs below for confirmation)

Month__Tropical Depression/Storm_____Days from Peak Relative
____________________________________Angular Velocity

June_________Colin________________________ - 1.5 days
_____________Danielle_____________________ -0.5 days
August_______Earl________________________ + 2.0 days
_____________Fiona________________________-4.0 days
_____________Gaston______________________+ 1.5 days
_____________Hermine_____________________+2.0 days
September____Ian__________________________+1.5 days
_____________Karl_________________________-3.0 days
_____________Lisa_________________________+2.5 days
_____________Matthew______________________-0.5 days
October______Nicole________________________ -3.0 days
November____Otto__________________________-1.0 day
________________________________(rms)_____ 1.84 days

Note: The average spacing between maxima and minima is 6.83 days. However, it can be as high as 8-9 days and as low as 4-5 days. This means that if the starting dates of the tropical depressions and storms were randomly distributed, there should be as many storms at -3.0 (+/- 0.5) days as there are +1.0 (+/- 0.5) days. Clearly, much large sample sizes are needed before any definitive conclusions can be drawn.

The table above shows that all of the tropical depressions/storms (with the possible exceptions of tropical depression Karl and tropical storm Fiona) appear to confirm our hypothesis that they first appear close to the dates on which the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity of the Earth's rotation are either a maximum or minimum.

KEY FOR FIGURES

TD = Tropical Depression
TS = Tropical Storm
CATN = Category N Hurricane  where N = 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5.
PK = Peak Activity

**************
June 2016

Topical Depression 3 - Tropical Storm Colin

June 5th

12:00 UTC (21.6°N 88.0°W) – Tropical Depression Three develops from an area of low pressure approximately 130 km WNW of Cancún, Yucatán Peninsula.

18:00 UTC (22.4°N 87.9°W) – Tropical Depression Three intensifies into Tropical Storm Colin about 175 km NW of Cancún, Yucatán Peninsula.

June 7th 

00:00 UTC (29.4°N 84.3°W) – Tropical Storm Colin attains its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h and a minimum barometric pressure of 1001 hPa roughly 110 km S of Tallahassee, Florida.

Topical Depression 4 - Tropical Storm Danielle

June 19th 

12:00 UTC (19.9°N 94.1°W) – Tropical Depression Four develops from an area of low pressure about (235 km) ENE of Heroica Veracruz, Mexico.

June 20th 

06:00 UTC 20.0°N 95.5°W) – Tropical Depression Four intensifies into Tropical Storm Danielle roughly 110 km NNE of Heroica Veracruz, Mexico.

12:00 UTC (20.7°N 96.1°W) Tropical Storm Danielle attains its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h and a minimum barometric pressure of 1007 hPa approximately 155 km ESE of Tamiahua, Mexico.

****************

July 2016

There were no storms in July

****************

August 2016

Tropical Storm Fiona - Hurricane Earl

August 2nd

06:00 UTC (16.3°N 77.5°W) – Tropical Storm Earl develops from an area of low pressure about 185 km S of Jamaica.

August 3rd

18:00 UTC (16.9°N 85.4°W) – Tropical Storm Earl intensifies into a Category 1 hurricane roughly 265 km ESE of Turneffe Atoll, Belize.

August 4th

04:00 UTC (17.4°N 87.8°W) – Hurricane Earl attains its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h and a minimum barometric pressure of 979 hPa as it crosses the coast of Belize.

Tropical Depression 6 - Tropical Storm Fiona

August 16th 

18:00 UTC (12.0°N 32.2°W) – Tropical Depression Six develops from an area of low pressure approximately (1,150 km) west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

August 17th 

12:00 UTC (13.7°N 36.0°W) – Tropical Depression Six intensifies into Tropical Storm Fiona about 1,480 km W of the Cabo Verde Islands.

August 19th

00:00 UTC (16.9°N 41.5°W) – Tropical Storm Fiona attains its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h and a minimum barometric pressure of 1004 hPa roughly 1,330 km ENE 

of the Leeward Islands.

Tropical Depression 7 - Tropical Storm Gaston - Hurricane Gaston

August 22

12:00 UTC  (11.5°N 26.5°W) – Tropical Depression Seven develops from an area of low pressure roughly 490 km SW of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands.

18:00 UTC (12.0°N 28.2°W) – Tropical Depression Seven intensifies into Tropical Storm Gaston approximately 500 km SW of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands.

August 24

12:00 UTC (15.8°N 39.1°W) – Tropical Storm Gaston intensifies into a Category 1 hurricane about 1,555 km W of the Cabo Verde Islands.

August 27

18:00 UTC (28.7°N 53.6°W) – Tropical Storm Gaston re-intensifies into a Category 1 hurricane approximately 1,145 km SE of Bermuda.

August 28th 

12:00 UTC (30.3°N 54.7°W) – Hurricane Gaston intensifies into a Category 2 hurricane about 980 km ESE of Bermuda.

18:00 UTC (30.5°N 55.0°W) – Hurricane Gaston intensifies into a Category 3 hurricane roughly 950 km ESE of Bermuda.

Tropical Depression 9 - Tropical Storm Hermine - Hurricane Hermine

August 28th 

18:00 UTC (23.8°N 81.4°W) – Tropical Depression Nine develops from an area of low pressure about 95 km SSE of Key West, Florida.

August 29th

06:00 UTC (24.4°N 88.0°W) – Tropical Depression Nine intensifies into Tropical Storm Hermine about 385 km NNW of Cancún, Mexico.

September 1st

18:00 UTC 27.9°N 85.5°W – Tropical Storm Hermine intensifies into a Category 1 hurricane about 210 km SSW of Apalachicola, Florida.

***********************

September 2016

Tropical Storm Ian - Rapidly heads north and becomes a subtropical storm

September 12th

06:00 UTC  (20.5°N 49.3°W) – Tropical Storm Ian develops from an area of low pressure about 1,665 km SE of Bermuda.

September 14th 

18:00 UTC (32.1°N 53.8°W) – Tropical Storm Ian transitions into a subtropical storm about 970 km E of Bermuda.

Tropical Depression 12 - Tropical Storm Karl

September 14th

06:00 UTC (16.2°N 23.2°W) – Tropical Depression Twelve develops from an area of low pressure while centered near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands.

September 15th
06:00 UTC (17.5°N 28.7°W) – Tropical Depression Twelve intensifies into Tropical Storm Karl about 360 km W of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Tropical Depression 13 - Tropical Storm Lisa

September 19th

12:00 UTC (13.4°N 27.3°W) – Tropical Depression Thirteen develops from an area of low pressure about 360 km WSW of the southern Cabo Verde Islands.

September 20th

12:00 UTC (15.1°N 30.0°W) – Tropical Depression Thirteen intensifies into Tropical Storm Lisa about 570 km W of the southern Cabo Verde Islands.

September 22nd

12:00 UTC (19.7°N 33.8°W) – Tropical Storm Lisa attains its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h and a minimum barometric pressure of 999 hPa about 940 km WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Tropical Storm Matthew - Hurricane Matthew

September 28th

12:00 UTC (13.4°N 59.8°W) – Tropical Storm Matthew develops from an area of low pressure about 25 km WNW of Barbados.

September 29th

18:00 UTC (14.2°N 66.9°W) – Tropical Storm Matthew intensifies into a Category 1 hurricane approximately 300 km NE of Curaçao.

September 30th

06:00 UTC (14.0°N 69.3°W) – Hurricane Matthew rapidly intensifies into a Category 2 hurricane about 185 km N of Curaçao.

12:00 UTC (13.8°N 70.4°W) – Hurricane Matthew rapidly intensifies into a Category 3 hurricane about 145 km NNW of Aruba.

18:00 UTC (13.5°N 71.2°W) – Hurricane Matthew rapidly intensifies into a Category 4 hurricane about 160 km NW of Aruba.

October 1st

00:00 UTC (13.4°N 71.9°W) – Hurricane Matthew rapidly intensifies into a Category 5 hurricane and simultaneously attains peak winds of 270 km/h about 215 km WNW of Aruba.

***********************

October 2016

Tropical Storm Nicole - Hurricane Nicole

October 4th

06:00 UTC (23.2°N 59.8°W) – Tropical Storm Nicole develops from an area of low pressure about 855 km NE of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

October 6th

18:00 UTC 27.3°N 65.1°W – Tropical Storm Nicole intensifies into a Category 1 hurricane about 555 km S of Bermuda.

October 7th

00:00 UTC (27.5°N 65.2°W) – Hurricane Nicole intensifies into a Category 2 hurricane about 530 km S of Bermuda. [Note that this is the peak intensity of Hurricane Nicole until it re-intensifies over October 11th, 12th, and 13th, peaking at category 4].

***********************

November 2016

Tropical Depression 16 - Tropical Storm Otto - Hurricane Otto

November 20th

18:00 UTC (11.1°N 79.7°W) – Tropical Depression Sixteen develops from an area of low pressure about 195 km N of Colón, Panama.

November 21st

06:00 UTC (11.3°N 79.3°W) – Tropical Depression Sixteen intensifies into Tropical Storm Otto roughly 235 km NNE of Colón, Panama.

November 23rd

18:00 UTC (11.2°N 81.1°W) – Tropical Storm Otto intensifies into a Category 1 hurricane approximately 250 km NW of Colón, Panama.

November 24th

06:00 UTC (11.1°N 82.4°W) – Hurricane Otto intensifies into a Category 2 hurricane about 150 km E of the Costa Rica–Nicaragua border.

12:00 UTC (11.0°N 83.0°W) – Hurricane Otto intensifies into a Category 3 hurricane and simultaneously attains its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h and a minimum barometric pressure of 975 hPa roughly 75 km E of the Costa Rica–Nicaragua border.