Search This Blog

Loading...

Monday, June 2, 2014

What is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Trying to Hide?


















The Moon's orbit is tilted by approximately five degrees
compared to the Earth-Sun plane. The net affect of this is
that the strength of Lunar-tides at a given latitude on the
Earth's surface vary in strength over a cycle of 18.6 years.
This 18.6 year Draconic cycle is also clearly evident in the
small changes that take place in the rate of rotation of the
Earth.

The above graph clearly shows that Victoria experienced
increased annual precipitation around 1917, (1936), 1955,
1973-74, 1992, and 2010-11. These years are separated
by ~ 18.6 years and occur at times which correspond to
peaks in the strength of the Draconic tides.

Why is the Australian BOM ignoring this obvious piece
of evidence that connects the annual rainfall in Victoria to
long-term changes in the Lunar Tides?

Will they be ready for the next period of increased
precipitation around 2029?

Please refer to the following papers for a possible
explanation of this phenomenon:

Wilson, I.R.G.Lunar Tides and the Long-Term Variation 
of the Peak Latitude Anomaly of the Summer Sub-Tropical 
High Pressure Ridge over Eastern Australia
The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2012, 6, 49-60


Wilson, I.R.G., Long-Term Lunar Atmospheric Tides in the 
Southern Hemisphere, The Open Atmospheric Science Journal,
2013, 7, 51-76

http://www.benthamscience.com/open/toascj/articles/V007/TOASCJ130415001.pdf

Thursday, May 8, 2014

El Nino Events are Caused by Extreme Perigean Spring Tides

The Y-axis of the two graphs below show the number of minutes
that a New or Full Moon occured from Lunar perigee while the
X-axis shows the number of days that the lunar event occurred
after April 1st [There is no April Fool joke here].

The graphs show all of the most extreme Perigean Spring-Tide
events that occurred between 1800 and 1987. The lower a
tidal event appears in these two graphs and the closer a tidal
event is to Perihelion on January 3 rd [i..e. day 278 on the
X-axis] the greater its tidal strength. This means that the
relative strength of the extreme Perigean Spring Tides
becomes strong as you move from the upper-left of these
two graphs to the lower right.

The top figure shows all of the extreme Perigean
Spring-Tidal events that occur either one year prior to,
or in the starting year of, a recognized El Nino event.

The bottom figure shows all of the extreme Perigean
Spring-Tidal events that DO NOT occur either one
year prior to, or in the starting year of, a recognized
El Nino event.





A close comparison of these two figures clearly shows
that the strongest extreme Perigean Spring-Tidal events
are preferentially found either one year prior to, or in the
starting year of, a recognized El-Nino event.

Hence, this data supports the contention that strong
tides produced by extreme Perigean Spring-Tides play
an important role in instigating these influential climate
events.

You might want to read the following related post as
well:

http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2013/02/do-you-think-that-moon-might-have.html

Tuesday, January 14, 2014

DO Events Cause Rapid Warming Events in the Last Glacial Period

Here is my evidence that DO [Dansgaard-Oeschger] events are
associated with rapid warming periods in the glacial record.

The the top figure in the graph below uses the GRIP chronology
from 0 to 45,000 BP.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/blunier2001/blunier2001.html























There is some controversy about the GISP2, GRIP and NGRIP
scaling chronologies for the Greenland ice core. Shown below
are the timing of DO events 0, 2, 8, 11, 12, and 13 using the latest
NGRIP-based Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005 (GICC05)
time scale to the period between 14.9 – 32.45 ka b2k (before
A.D. 2000) [Thanks to Rodger Andrews for pointing this out].






















Reference:  http://www.isogklima.ku.dk/english/publications/papers/pdfs/244.pdf

Note that DO events 0, 2, 8, 11, 12, and 13 have been placed
on this new scale.

Wednesday, January 8, 2014

The Long-Term Periodicities of the VEJ Spin-Orbit Coupling Model

The reader should be familiar with the contents of the
following paper before continuing with this post:

Wilson I.R.G., The Venus–Earth–Jupiter spin–orbit 
coupling model, Pattern Recogn. Phys., 1, 147–158,
2013

which can be freely downloaded at:
http://www.pattern-recogn-phys.net/1/147/2013/prp-1-147-2013.html

In this paper, Wilson (2013) constructs a Venus–Earth
–Jupiter spin–orbit coupling model from a combination
of the Venus–Earth–Jupiter tidal-torquing model and
the gear effect. The new model produces net tangential
torques that act upon the outer convective layers of the
Sun with periodicities that match many of the long-term
cycles that are found in the 10Be and 14C proxy records
of solar activity.

Wilson (2013) showed that there are at least two 
ways that the Jovian and Terrestrial planets can 
influence bulk motions in the convective layers 
of the Sun. 

The first is via the VEJ tidal-torquing process:

– Tidal bulges are formed at the base of the convective
layers of the Sun by the periodical alignments of Venus
and the Earth.

– Jupiter applies a tangential gravitational torque to these
tidal bulges that either speed-up or slow-down parts of
the convective layer of the Sun.

– Jupiter’s net tangential torque increases the rotation rate
of the convective layers of the Sun for 11.07 yr (seven
Venus–Earth alignments lasting 11.19 yr) and then
decreases the rotation rate over the next 11.07 yr.

– The model produces periodic changes in rotation rate
of the convective layers of the Sun that result a 22.14 yr
(Hale-like) modulation of the solar activity cycle ( 14
Venus–Earth alignments lasting 22.38 yr).

– There is a long-term modulation of the net torque that
is equal to the mean time required for the 11.8622 yr
periodic change in Jupiter’s distance from the Sun to
realign with the 11.0683 yr tidal-torquing cycle of the
VEJ model.

The second way is via modulation of the VEJ 
tidal-torquing process via the gear effect:

The gear effect modulates the changes in rotation rate of
the outer convective layers of the Sun that are being
driven by the VEJ tidal-torquing effect.

– This modulation is greatest whenever Saturn is in
quadrature with Jupiter. These periodic changes in the
modulation of the rotation rate vary over a 19.859 yr
period.

– The gear effect is most effective at the times when Venus
and the Earth are aligned on the same side of the Sun.

– There is a long-term modulation of the net torque that
has a period of 192.98 yr.

Note: The sidereal orbital periods used in this post are
those provided by:
http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/planetfact.html

 = sidereal orbital period of Venus = 0.615187(1) yrs


= sidereal orbital period of the Earth = 1.000000 yrs


= sidereal orbital period of Jupiter = 11.8617755(6) yrs


= sidereal orbital period of Saturn = 29.45663 yrs


= synodic period of Venus/Earth = 1.59866(5) yrs


= synodic period Jupiter/Saturn = 19.8585(3) yrs


The Physical Meaning for each of the Periodicities

The 22.136 Year Period of the VEJ Tidal-Torquing Model 

This is the time over which the angle between the nearest
VE tidal bulge (formed in the convective layers of the Sun)
and Jupiter moves from 0 to 180 degrees

Jupiter's net tangential torque increases the rotation rate of
the Sun's convective layers for the first 11.068 years and
then decreases the rotation rate for the remaining 11.068
years.

Hence, the basic unit of change in the Sun’s rotation rate
(i.e. an increase followed by a decrease in rotation rate)
is 2 × 11.068 yr = 22.137 yr. This is essentially equal
to the mean length of the Hale magnetic sunspot cycle of
the Sun, which is 22.1 ± 2.0 yr (Wilson, 2011).

The 22.136 year period is simply half the realignment
time between Venus, the Earth and Jupiter (= 44.272
years) and it can be represented by the equation:






(Paul Vaughan - private communications).

The 165.42 year Modulation Period of the
Net Tangential Torque of Jupiter 

The 11.068 year period in the net tangential torque of
Jupiter acting upon the base of the Sun's convective
layer is modulated by the 11.862 year variation in the
mean distance of Jupiter from the Sun. This produces
a 165.42 year modulation in Jupiter's peak net tangential
torque given by:








The 193.02 year Modulation Period of the Gear Effect

The is the time required for the 22.137 yr periodicity of the
net tangential torque of Jupiter associated with the VEJ
Tidal-Torquing model to re-align with the 19.859 yr period
associated with the gear effect:






which can also be written as;






linking this modulation cycle to a multiple of the
period of time required for the planets Venus, the Earth,
Jupiter and Saturn to re-synchronize their orbits.

The 88 Year Gleissberg Cycle

The 88 year Gleissberg Cycle is a well identified
long-term periodicity that is seen in the level of solar
activity. The following equation shows that is merely
the synodic beat period between half the synodic
period of Jupiter/Saturn (= 9.9293 yrs) and seven
time the synodic period of Venus/Earth = 11.191 yrs.

Half the synodic period of Jupiter/Saturn is the time
between successive quadratures of Jupiter and Saturn
which is the main periodicity of the gear effect, while
seven times the synodic period of Venus/Earth
is the periodicity of the link between the VEJ
tidal-torquing model and the gear effect.








Of course, multiples of the Gleissberg period
correspond to long-term periodicities that were found
by McCracken et al. [2012]:

1 x 88.09 = 88.09 yrs --> 87.3 ± 0.4 yrs
4 x 88.09 = 352.36 yrs --> 350 ± 0.7 yrs
6 x 88.09 = 528.54 yrs --> 510 ± 15 yrs
8 x 88.09 = 704.72 yrs --> 708 ± 28 yrs

7 x 165.42 yrs = 6 x 193.02 yrs ≈ 1158 yrs

The following formula are direct consequence of
the above commensurablity:










The last equation links the orbital periods Venus and
the Earth to those of Jupiter and Saturn.