Monday, August 20, 2018

The ABC and Fake News...but I repeat myself!

The Australian Broadcasting Commission (ABC) is telling its viewers that human-induced climate change is causing an unprecedented level of forest fires in the US.

Here is the truth:




Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Coral bleaching is a problem that goes back four centuries


The Australian newspaper is reporting in a pay-walled article that coral bleaching is a problem that goes back four centuries. 

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/coral-bleaching-a-centuriesold-problem/news-story/33b3cbd7cd3b784322c0a7bc10e98eb6


"A study of coral core ­samples has extended the known history of bleaching by more than 350 years but warns it is becoming more frequent and may be ­approaching a “tipping point” ­beyond which reef survival is ­uncertain.

Published in Frontiers in Marine Science, the research by ­scientists from Glasgow and Edinburgh universities reconstructs temperature-induced bleaching patterns over 381 years spanning 1620-2001. The findings are at odds with claims that mass coral bleaching is a recent phenomenon due to climate change." 

The article claims that coral bleaching has been increasing since 1850 due to warming temperatures caused by human-induced global warming and that we are fast approaching a tipping point from which the GBR will not recover.

Here is my comment at the 16/08/2018 Australian:

Choosing 1850 as your starting point and then claiming that coral bleaching is increasing, is a classic case of false logic called cherry-picking. Looking at the data, I could just as easily claim that coral bleaching is controlled by the level of solar activity. There have been two periods in the last 400 years where the level of sunspot activity on the Sun has dramatically decreased. They are the Maunder minimum and the Dalton minimum. Both were associated with distinct periods of cooling in the world's mean ocean temperatures, with the Maunder minimum reaching its coolest temperatures in about 1660 and the Dalton minimum in 1820. This matches the observed minimums in coral bleaching observed around these same dates.  If the world's mean ocean temperatures are in fact affected by the level of sunspot activity, then we should expect the level of coral bleaching to decrease between about 2020 and 2050, matching the expected decrease in solar activity.


The original scientific paper can be accessed here:

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00283/full

You need to be careful they use a Mann et al. (2008) temperature reconstruction, which should be taken with a truck load of salt. 



Sunday, May 13, 2018

A Re-Post of - The El Niños during New Moon Epoch 5 - 1963 to 1994

A detailed investigation of the precise alignments between the lunar synodic [lunar phase] cycle and the 31/62 year Perigee-Syzygy cycle between 1865 and 2014 shows that it naturally breaks up six 31 year epochs each of which has a distinctly different tidal property. The second 31-year interval starts with the precise alignment on the 15th of April 1870 with the subsequent epoch boundaries occurring every 31 years after that:

Epoch 1 - Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 3 - 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 5 - 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994
Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025



The hypothesis that the 31/62 year seasonal tidal cycle plays a significant role in sequencing the triggering of El Niñevents leads one to reasonably expect that tidal effects for the following three epochs:

New Moon Epoch:
Epoch 1 - Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 3 - 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 5 - 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994

[N.B. During these epochs, the peak seasonal tides are dominated by new moons that are    predominately in the northern hemisphere.]

should be noticeably different to its effects for these three epochs:

Full Moon Epochs:
Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025

[N.B. During these epochs. the peak seasonal tides are dominated by full moons that are predominately in the southern hemisphere.]
If we specifically look at the 31-year New Moon Epoch 5, we find that: 

Figures 1, 2, and 3 (below) show the Moon's distance from the Earth (in kilometers) at the times where it crosses the Earth's equator, for the years 1964 through to 1995.

Figure 1


  Figure 2


Figure 3



Superimposed on each of these figures are the seven strong(#) El Niño events that occurred during this time period. Table 1 summaries the dates (i.e year and month) for start of each of these seven strong El Niño events.

Table 1



# For the definition of a strong El Niño event go to part c) of:

http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/evidence-that-strong-el-Nino-events-are_12.html

[* N.B. The 1969 El Niño event just falls short of the selection criterion for a strong El Niño event because it only last for three months. It has been included in Table 1 for completeness.]

Figures 1,2 and 3 clearly show that all of the eight El Niño events in this tidal epoch occur at times where the distance of the Moon as sequential crossings of the Earth's equator have almost the same value of ~ 382,000 km. In the years when this happens, the lunar line-of-apse is closely aligned with either the December or June Solstice. 

It is possible that this correlation could be dismissed as a coincidence. However, it is extremely unlikely that:

a)  during the other New Moon tidal epoch i.e. Epoch 3 - from the 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932, El Niño events should also occur when the lunar line-of-apse is closely aligned with either the December or June Solstice.

b) during the Full Moon tidal epochs i.e. Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901; Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963; Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025, El Nino events should occur when  the lunar line-of-apse is closely aligned with either the March or September Equinox.

The switch between the timing of El Niño events, once every 31 years, at the same time that there is a switch from a New Moon tidal epoch to Full Moon tidal epoch, tell us that it is very likely that El Niño events, are in fact, triggered by the lunar tides.