Friday, February 22, 2019

North Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November 2015


2016 Hurricane Season - June to November

2017 Hurricane Season - June to November

PRELIMINARIES

References:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2016_Atlantic_hurricane_seasonSidorenkov, N.S., 2009: The Interaction Between Earth’s Rotation and Geophysical Processes, Weinheim: Wiley.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2015&basin=atl

STORM TYPES

Saffire Simpson Scale (for one minute maximum sustained winds)

Low Pressure
Tropical Depression___________<= 62 km/hr
Tropical Storm_______________ 63 to 118 km/hr
Cat. One ___________________119 to 153 km/hr
Cat. Two ___________________154 to 177 km/hr
Cat. Three__________________178 to 208 km/hr
Cat. Four ___________________209 to 251 km/hr
Cat Five ____________________ >= 252 km/hr

KEY FOR FIGURES

L = Low Pressure
TD = Tropical Depression
TS = Tropical Storm
CATN = Category N Hurricane  where N = 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5.
PK = Peak Activity

CLAIM

Tropical depressions or storms that appear in the Atlantic Ocean between the Equator and 25.0 degrees North during the North Atlantic Hurricane season, will do so on dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity of the Earth's rotation. [N.B. the dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity occur close to the times when the Moon crosses the Earth's equator or reaches lunar standstill (i.e. the Moon is furthest north or south of the Equator).]   

In the 2015 North Atlantic Hurricane Season, all of the Tropical Depressions/Tropical Storms/Hurricanes support the above claim. Even the ones that first generate at latitude greater than 25 degrees. 

a) 0 to 25 degrees_________Danny, Erika, Fred, Grace, Tropical Depression 9, Ida, Kate

b) Great than 25 degrees____Bill, Claudette, Henri, Joaquin  

JUNE



JULY



AUGUST


SEPTEMBER


OCTOBER


NOVEMBER


North Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November 2017


For an explanation of the following plots please read:

http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/02/the-north-atlantic-hurricane-season.html

PRELIMINARIES

References:

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2016_Atlantic_hurricane_season
Sidorenkov, N.S., 2009: The Interaction Between Earth’s Rotation and Geophysical Processes, Weinheim: Wiley.

STORM TYPES

Saffire Simpson Scale (for one minute maximum sustained winds)

Potential Tropical Cyclone
Tropical Depression___________<= 62 km/hr
Tropical Storm_______________ 63 to 118 km/hr
Cat. One ___________________119 to 153 km/hr
Cat. Two ___________________154 to 177 km/hr
Cat. Three__________________178 to 208 km/hr
Cat. Four ___________________209 to 251 km/hr
Cat Five ____________________ >= 252 km/hr

KEY FOR FIGURES

Pot# = Potential Tropical Cycle number #
TD = Tropical Depression
TS = Tropical Storm
CATN = Category N Hurricane  where N = 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5.
PK = Peak Activity
Regen. = Regenerated

Note: All but two (the exceptions being Jose and Katia) of the 15 Topical Depressions/Storms/Hurricanes that occurred during the North Atlantic Hurricane season supports the following claim that:

Tropical depressions or storms that appear in the Atlantic Ocean between the Equator and 25.0 degrees North during the North Atlantic Hurricane season, will do so on dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity of the Earth's rotation. [N.B. the dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity occur close to the times when the Moon crosses the Earth's equator or reaches lunar standstill (i.e. the Moon is furthest north or south of the Equator).]   

This claim is also supported true by 10 of the 12 Topical Depressions/Storms/Hurricanes that occurred during the Hurricane season 2016.


JUNE 2017



JULY 2017


AUGUST 2017


SEPTEMBER 2017



OCTOBER 2017



NOVEMBER 2017



Thursday, February 21, 2019

The North Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November 2016

References:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2016_Atlantic_hurricane_season
Sidorenkov, N.S., 2009: The Interaction Between Earth’s Rotation and Geophysical Processes, Weinheim: Wiley.

STORM TYPES

Saffire Simpson Scale (for one minute maximum sustained winds)

Tropical Depression___________<= 62 km/hr
Tropical Storm_______________ 63 to 118 km/hr
Cat. One ___________________119 to 153 km/hr
Cat. Two ___________________154 to 177 km/hr
Cat. Three__________________178 to 208 km/hr
Cat. Four ___________________209 to 251 km/hr
Cat Five ____________________ > = 252 km/hr

This post only includes tropical depressions/storms that start in the Atlantic Ocean between the Equator and 25.0 degrees North. The reason for excluding tropical depressions and tropical storms that start further than 25.0 degrees away from the equator is that their generation may have more to do with factors related to the mid-latitudes (e.g. hanging troughs, intruding cold fronts etc.) rather than the equatorial regions.

HYPOTHESIS TO BE TESTED

Tropical depressions or storms that appear in the Atlantic Ocean between the Equator and 25.0 degrees North during the 2016 North Atlantic Hurricane season, will do so on dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity of the Earth's rotation. [N.B. the dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity occur close to the times when the Moon crosses the Earth's equator or reaches lunar standstill (i.e. the Moon is furthest north or south of the Equator).]  

Summary of Results  (See the graphs below for confirmation)

Month__Tropical Depression/Storm_____Days from Peak Relative
____________________________________Angular Velocity

June_________Colin________________________ - 1.5 days
_____________Danielle_____________________ -0.5 days
August_______Earl________________________ + 2.0 days
_____________Fiona________________________-4.0 days
_____________Gaston______________________+ 1.5 days
_____________Hermine_____________________+2.0 days
September____Ian__________________________+1.5 days
_____________Karl_________________________-3.0 days
_____________Lisa_________________________+2.5 days
_____________Matthew______________________-0.5 days
October______Nicole________________________ -3.0 days
November____Otto__________________________-1.0 day
________________________________(rms)_____ 1.84 days

Note: The average spacing between maxima and minima is 6.83 days. However, it can be as high as 8-9 days and as low as 4-5 days. This means that if the starting dates of the tropical depressions and storms were randomly distributed, there should be as many storms at -3.0 (+/- 0.5) days as there are +1.0 (+/- 0.5) days. Clearly, much large sample sizes are needed before any definitive conclusions can be drawn.

The table above shows that all of the tropical depressions/storms (with the possible exceptions of tropical depression Karl and tropical storm Fiona) appear to confirm our hypothesis that they first appear close to the dates on which the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity of the Earth's rotation are either a maximum or minimum.

KEY FOR FIGURES

TD = Tropical Depression
TS = Tropical Storm
CATN = Category N Hurricane  where N = 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5.
PK = Peak Activity

**************
June 2016



Topical Depression 3 - Tropical Storm Colin


June 5th

12:00 UTC (21.6°N 88.0°W) – Tropical Depression Three develops from an area of low pressure approximately 130 km WNW of Cancún, Yucatán Peninsula.

18:00 UTC (22.4°N 87.9°W) – Tropical Depression Three intensifies into Tropical Storm Colin about 175 km NW of Cancún, Yucatán Peninsula.

June 7th 

00:00 UTC (29.4°N 84.3°W) – Tropical Storm Colin attains its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h and a minimum barometric pressure of 1001 hPa roughly 110 km S of Tallahassee, Florida.

Topical Depression 4 - Tropical Storm Danielle

June 19th 

12:00 UTC (19.9°N 94.1°W) – Tropical Depression Four develops from an area of low pressure about (235 km) ENE of Heroica Veracruz, Mexico.

June 20th 
06:00 UTC 20.0°N 95.5°W) – Tropical Depression Four intensifies into Tropical Storm Danielle roughly 110 km NNE of Heroica Veracruz, Mexico.

12:00 UTC (20.7°N 96.1°W) Tropical Storm Danielle attains its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h and a minimum barometric pressure of 1007 hPa approximately 155 km ESE of Tamiahua, Mexico.


****************

July 2016

There were no storms in July

****************

August 2016



Tropical Storm Fiona - Hurricane Earl
August 2nd
06:00 UTC (16.3°N 77.5°W) – Tropical Storm Earl develops from an area of low pressure about 185 km S of Jamaica.
August 3rd
18:00 UTC (16.9°N 85.4°W) – Tropical Storm Earl intensifies into a Category 1 hurricane roughly 265 km ESE of Turneffe Atoll, Belize.
    August 4th
    04:00 UTC (17.4°N 87.8°W) – Hurricane Earl attains its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 140 km/h and a minimum barometric pressure of 979 hPa as it crosses the coast of Belize.

    Tropical Depression 6 - Tropical Storm Fiona

    August 16th 

    18:00 UTC (12.0°N 32.2°W) – Tropical Depression Six develops from an area of low pressure approximately (1,150 km) west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

    August 17th 

    12:00 UTC (13.7°N 36.0°W) – Tropical Depression Six intensifies into Tropical Storm Fiona about 1,480 km W of the Cabo Verde Islands.

    August 19th

    00:00 UTC (16.9°N 41.5°W) – Tropical Storm Fiona attains its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h and a minimum barometric pressure of 1004 hPa roughly 1,330 km ENE 
    of the Leeward Islands.

    Tropical Depression 7 - Tropical Storm Gaston - Hurricane Gaston

    August 22

    12:00 UTC  (11.5°N 26.5°W) – Tropical Depression Seven develops from an area of low pressure roughly 490 km SW of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands.

    18:00 UTC (12.0°N 28.2°W) – Tropical Depression Seven intensifies into Tropical Storm Gaston approximately 500 km SW of the southernmost Cabo Verde Islands.

    August 24

    12:00 UTC (15.8°N 39.1°W) – Tropical Storm Gaston intensifies into a Category 1 hurricane about 1,555 km W of the Cabo Verde Islands.

    August 27

    18:00 UTC (28.7°N 53.6°W) – Tropical Storm Gaston re-intensifies into a Category 1 hurricane approximately 1,145 km SE of Bermuda.

    August 28th 

    12:00 UTC (30.3°N 54.7°W) – Hurricane Gaston intensifies into a Category 2 hurricane about 980 km ESE of Bermuda.

    18:00 UTC (30.5°N 55.0°W) – Hurricane Gaston intensifies into a Category 3 hurricane roughly 950 km ESE of Bermuda.

    Tropical Depression 9 - Tropical Storm Hermine - Hurricane Hermine

    August 28th 

    18:00 UTC (23.8°N 81.4°W) – Tropical Depression Nine develops from an area of low pressure about 95 km SSE of Key West, Florida.

    August 29th

    06:00 UTC (24.4°N 88.0°W) – Tropical Depression Nine intensifies into Tropical Storm Hermine about 385 km NNW of Cancún, Mexico.

    September 1st

    18:00 UTC 27.9°N 85.5°W – Tropical Storm Hermine intensifies into a Category 1 hurricane about 210 km SSW of Apalachicola, Florida.

    ***********************
    September 2016



    Tropical Storm Ian - Rapidly heads north and becomes a subtropical storm

    September 12th

    06:00 UTC  (20.5°N 49.3°W) – Tropical Storm Ian develops from an area of low pressure about 1,665 km SE of Bermuda.

    September 14th 

    18:00 UTC (32.1°N 53.8°W) – Tropical Storm Ian transitions into a subtropical storm about 970 km E of Bermuda.

    Tropical Depression 12 - Tropical Storm Karl

    September 14th

    06:00 UTC (16.2°N 23.2°W) – Tropical Depression Twelve develops from an area of low pressure while centered near the eastern Cabo Verde Islands.

    September 15th
    06:00 UTC (17.5°N 28.7°W) – Tropical Depression Twelve intensifies into Tropical Storm Karl about 360 km W of the Cabo Verde Islands.

    Tropical Depression 13 - Tropical Storm Lisa

    September 19th

    12:00 UTC (13.4°N 27.3°W) – Tropical Depression Thirteen develops from an area of low pressure about 360 km WSW of the southern Cabo Verde Islands.

    September 20th

    12:00 UTC (15.1°N 30.0°W) – Tropical Depression Thirteen intensifies into Tropical Storm Lisa about 570 km W of the southern Cabo Verde Islands.

    September 22nd

    12:00 UTC (19.7°N 33.8°W) – Tropical Storm Lisa attains its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 85 km/h and a minimum barometric pressure of 999 hPa about 940 km WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands.

    Tropical Storm Matthew - Hurricane Matthew

    September 28th

    12:00 UTC (13.4°N 59.8°W) – Tropical Storm Matthew develops from an area of low pressure about 25 km WNW of Barbados.

    September 29th

    18:00 UTC (14.2°N 66.9°W) – Tropical Storm Matthew intensifies into a Category 1 hurricane approximately 300 km NE of Curaçao.

    September 30th

    06:00 UTC (14.0°N 69.3°W) – Hurricane Matthew rapidly intensifies into a Category 2 hurricane about 185 km N of Curaçao.
    12:00 UTC (13.8°N 70.4°W) – Hurricane Matthew rapidly intensifies into a Category 3 hurricane about 145 km NNW of Aruba.
    18:00 UTC (13.5°N 71.2°W) – Hurricane Matthew rapidly intensifies into a Category 4 hurricane about 160 km NW of Aruba.

    October 1st

    00:00 UTC (13.4°N 71.9°W) – Hurricane Matthew rapidly intensifies into a Category 5 hurricane and simultaneously attains peak winds of 270 km/h about 215 km WNW of Aruba.

    ***********************
    October 2016



    Tropical Storm Nicole - Hurricane Nicole

    October 4th
    06:00 UTC (23.2°N 59.8°W) – Tropical Storm Nicole develops from an area of low pressure about 855 km NE of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

    October 6th

    18:00 UTC 27.3°N 65.1°W – Tropical Storm Nicole intensifies into a Category 1 hurricane about 555 km S of Bermuda.

    October 7th

    00:00 UTC (27.5°N 65.2°W) – Hurricane Nicole intensifies into a Category 2 hurricane about 530 km S of Bermuda. [Note that this is the peak intensity of Hurricane Nicole until it re-intensifies over October 11th, 12th, and 13th, peaking at category 4].

    ***********************
    November 2016


    Tropical Depression 16 - Tropical Storm Otto - Hurricane Otto

    November 20th

    18:00 UTC (11.1°N 79.7°W) – Tropical Depression Sixteen develops from an area of low pressure about 195 km N of Colón, Panama.

    November 21st

    06:00 UTC (11.3°N 79.3°W) – Tropical Depression Sixteen intensifies into Tropical Storm Otto roughly 235 km NNE of Colón, Panama.

    November 23rd

    18:00 UTC (11.2°N 81.1°W) – Tropical Storm Otto intensifies into a Category 1 hurricane approximately 250 km NW of Colón, Panama.

    November 24th

    06:00 UTC (11.1°N 82.4°W) – Hurricane Otto intensifies into a Category 2 hurricane about 150 km E of the Costa Rica–Nicaragua border.

    12:00 UTC (11.0°N 83.0°W) – Hurricane Otto intensifies into a Category 3 hurricane and simultaneously attains its peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 185 km/h and a minimum barometric pressure of 975 hPa roughly 75 km E of the Costa Rica–Nicaragua border.

    Monday, February 18, 2019

    Friday, February 15, 2019

    The Lunar Smoking Gun


    Wilson and Sidorenkov, A Luni-Solar Connection to Weather and Climate I: Centennial Times Scales, J Earth Sci Clim Change 2018, 9:2 DOI: 10.4172/2157-7617.1000446

    https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/a-lunisolar-connection-to-weather-and-climate-i-centennial-times-scales-2157-7617-1000446.pdf


    When a plot is made of the precision of these [lunar] alignments, in a frame-of-reference that is fixed with respect to the Perihelion of the Earth’s orbit, the most precise alignments take place in an orderly pattern that repeats itself once every 208.0 years: 

    0 × (28.75 + 31.00) + 28.75 years = 28.75 years ≈ 25.5 FMC’s 
    1 × (28.75 + 31.00) + 28.75 years = 88.5 years ≈ 78.5 FMC’s 
    2 × (28.75 + 31.00) + 28.75 years = 148.25 years ≈ 131.5 FMC’s 
    3 × (28.75 + 31.00) + 28.75 years = 208.0 years ≈ 184.5 FMC’s 

    A simple extension of this pattern gives additional precise alignments at periods of 236.75, 296.50, 356.25, 416.0, 444.75 and 504.5 years. The full significance of the 208-year repetition pattern in the periodicities of the lunar alignment index (ϕ) only becomes apparent when these periodicities are compared to those observed in the spectra for two proxy time series. 

    Abstract 

    Lunar ephemeris data is used to find the times when the Perigee of the lunar orbit points directly toward or away from the Sun, at times when the Earth is located at one of its solstices or equinoxes, for the period from 1993 to 2528 A.D. The precision of these lunar alignments is expressed in the form of a lunar alignment index (ϕ). When a plot is made of ϕ, in a frame-of-reference that is fixed with respect to the Perihelion of the Earth’s orbit, distinct periodicities are seen at 28.75, 31.0, 88.5 (Gleissberg Cycle), 148.25, and 208.0 years (de Vries Cycle). The full significance of the 208.0-year repetition pattern in ϕ only becomes apparent when these periodicities are compared to those observed in the spectra for two proxy time series. The first is the amplitude spectrum of the maximum daytime temperatures (Tm) on the Southern Colorado Plateau for the period from 266 BC to 1997 AD. The second is the Fourier spectrum of the solar modulation potential (ϕm) over the last 9400 years. A comparison between these three spectra shows that of the nine most prominent periods seen in ϕ, eight have matching peaks in the spectrum of ϕm, and seven have matching peaks in the spectrum of Tm. This strongly supports the contention that all three of these phenomena are related to one another. A heuristic Luni-Solar climate model is developed in order to explain the connections between ϕ, Tm and ϕm.