tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-29657667912601528782024-03-04T22:33:24.274-08:00Astro-Climate-ConnectionNinderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.comBlogger151125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-77090546004723075922020-02-12T05:19:00.002-08:002020-02-12T05:19:52.063-08:00Why are Climate Scientists Lying to Us?<span style="color: red; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>Climate scientists claim that observed warming of the planet over the last 40 to 50 years by about +0.16 deg. C per decade is a direct result of the increase in atmospheric CO2 caused by human emissions.</b></span><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b>HERE IS WHY THEY ARE WRONG!!</b></span><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A. </span><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><u>Annual to Bi-annual Temperature Increases and Decreases in Global Temperature</u> </span></b><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Figure 1 shows the University of Alabama - Hunstville (UAH) satellite-based lower troposphere temperature anomalies for the Tropics (+/- 20 deg. longitude) between December 1978 and January 2020.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">What this graph shows is that the mean temperature anomalies for the lower troposphere of the Earth's Tropics exhibit a linear warming trend of +0.13 deg. C per decade (red dashed line), with sharp increases and decreases in temperature of approximately +/- 0.5 deg. C about the long-term trend, lasting for one to two years.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Figure 1.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEgjZgSZSIiH29hyphenhyphenHr_DAOz1TizkVCJh3q_Hjxq0VcC5bPON4Gps1me6bWfxPr1xuxnedegeoT5Jc8o1DagpYh05dmUeO2Th259IUYgqTaoHSSt20NGtQOPL6LWrwzkqg1nrWe-6iDl8CO/s1600/UAH_Trend.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="659" data-original-width="909" height="462" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEgjZgSZSIiH29hyphenhyphenHr_DAOz1TizkVCJh3q_Hjxq0VcC5bPON4Gps1me6bWfxPr1xuxnedegeoT5Jc8o1DagpYh05dmUeO2Th259IUYgqTaoHSSt20NGtQOPL6LWrwzkqg1nrWe-6iDl8CO/s640/UAH_Trend.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It is well known that the annual to bi-annual excursions in temperature, above the long-term trend, are associated with El Nino and those below the long-term trend with La Nina events. The proof of this assertion is provided in Figure 2. This figure is a reproduction of figure 1 with a superimposed red curve showing the Bivariate EnSo Time Series (BEST) Index between 1979 and 2019. The BEST index has a value of +1 during El Nino months and -1 during La Nina months.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">With one notable exception i.e. the 1991-92 El Nino event, all of the other identified El Nino events are followed by noticeable warming in the UAH temperature anomalies. Similarly, all of the identified La Nina events are associated with noticeable cooling in the UAH temperature anomalies.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">[N.B. It generally accepted that the warming following the 1991-92 El Nino event was masked by a significant cooling event that was caused by the 1991 Pinatubo volcanic eruption.] </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Ref: <a href="https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/cathy.smith/best/">https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/cathy.smith/best/</a></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Figure 2.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">This means that El Nino and La Nina events can explain almost all of the short-term (i.e. annual to bi-annual) increases and decreases in global temperature about the observed longer-term linear trend of +0.13 deg. C per decade. In addition, the rare exception to this rule can be explained by cooling events that are associated with large volcanic eruptions in the Tropics.</span><br />
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<b><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">B. </span><u><span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Long-Term (Decadal to Inter-Decadal) Linear Increase in Global Temperature </span></u></b><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Hence, we are left with a gradual linear increase in Earth's tropical temperature of approximately +0.13 deg. C per decade over the 40-years of the UAH (satellite) temperature record. <br /><br />If we extend the global temperature record to the whole globe, rather than just the tropics, we find that between 1979 and 2012, the linear warming trend for the combined land and sea temperatures has been +0.155 <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-size: 14px;">± 0.033 d</span>eg. C per decade according to the AR5 IPCC report (Ref: AR5 IPCC WG1 Chapter 2 p. 93)</span><br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Most climate scientists attribute much of this gradual increase in global temperature to human-induced climate change. </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">However, the scientist's claims must be examined in light of other available temperature records that extend over a greater period of time. One such atmospheric temperature record is the HadCRUT4 produced by the Climate Research Unit (University of East Anglia) in conjunction with the Hadley Data Centre (UK Met Office).</span><br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">The black curve in figure 3 shows the time-rate-of-change of the world mean HadCRUT4 temperature (i.e. (dT/dt) - also known as the velocity of warming - measured in deg. C per year). Superimposed upon the black curve, is a purple horizontal line showing the average warming rate between 1979 and 2012 of +0.16 deg. C per decade, claimed by the IPCC (AR5).</span><br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">What is immediately clear from this graph is the linear warming rate of +0.16 deg. C per decade is only a crude approximation of what actually happened in the real world between 1979 and 2019. The longer global temperature record shows that the actual warming rate for the world's mean temperature varied up and down in a sinusoidal manner between a minimum of roughly -0.02 and a maximum of +0.20 deg. C per decade. It only averaged </span>≈<br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">0.16 deg. C per decade during the period between 1979 and 2019.<br /><br />Contrary to the observed temperature data, the climate models indicate that the CO2 forcing of the atmosphere should be producing a steady increase in the rate of warming of the Earth's atmosphere with time [i.e. a straight line with a positive slope in figure 3]. This is particularly true after the end of WWII when CO2 levels begin to significantly increase because of human emissions. However, what is observed is at complete odds with the prediction of the models.</span><br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;"><b>Hence, this post conclusively shows that anthropogenic CO2 cannot be the primary forcing term for the recent observed increases in the world's mean atmospheric and oceanic temperatures.</b></span><br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif;">Figure 3</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwRn4nJvT7LweFDikHTY6Jmhz50td2fbdkcOS1c9GwS7UFfve19VvPncEYjfghxEc6CWPAz5avuoT19QSd9fMBbzO0a2M5X_an6oV-6SA95WACclu0NUyylSUh0YTPisFDFef2gKXjJ2Kz/s1600/warming_UAH.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="367" data-original-width="750" height="312" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwRn4nJvT7LweFDikHTY6Jmhz50td2fbdkcOS1c9GwS7UFfve19VvPncEYjfghxEc6CWPAz5avuoT19QSd9fMBbzO0a2M5X_an6oV-6SA95WACclu0NUyylSUh0YTPisFDFef2gKXjJ2Kz/s640/warming_UAH.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br /><br />For supportive arguments, please read my earlier post entitled:<br />
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<span style="font-size: small;">GAME OVER! This Madness has to end!</span></h3>
<br /><a href="https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2020/01/game-over-this-madness-has-to-end.html">https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2020/01/game-over-this-madness-has-to-end.html</a><br />
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<br />Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-37370091485798424712020-01-17T20:19:00.000-08:002020-01-19T17:54:37.003-08:00GAME OVER! This Madness has to end! <div style="background-color: white; color: #302226; font-family: Candara, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 10px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-top: 0px;">
Climate scientists insist that rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations (measured in parts per million or ppm) are forcing the Earth’s atmospheric and oceanic temperatures to increase. They base their claim on the premise that CO2 is a greenhouse gas that prevents infrared light from escaping the Earth’s atmosphere. They propose that the trapped infra-red radiation results in a net gain in the energy that is stored in the Earth’s atmosphere (~ 2 %) and oceans (> 90 %).</div>
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The scientists quantify this build-up in energy using a parameter called the Earth’s [top of the atmosphere] Energy Imbalance (EEI). If the EEI is positive then the Earth’s climate system gains energy, if it’s negative then the system loses energy, largely due to the energy flow into and out of the oceans.</div>
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The best estimates of the observed EEI at the moment are about 0.8 watts per square metre (W m^-2). Many scientists implicitly assume that this energy imbalance is caused, in large part, by anthropogenic GHGs. Theoretical climate models indicate that if you take into account GHGs, ozone, the Earth’s albedo, aerosols, and solar irradiance, the net anthropogenic forcing component upon the Earth’s climate system should be about 1.6 +/- 0.8 W m^-2.</div>
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It is important to understand that climate scientists treat the rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations as a “forcing” upon the climate system. They measure the effect of this “forcing” in units of W m^-2 [i.e. joules (of energy) per second per metre^2]. This means that we need to look for a response to this “forcing” of the Earth’s atmosphere and oceans by CO2 in units that match that of the “forcing” itself i.e. watts or joules (of energy) per second [N.B. the m^-2 part of the units is superfluous because we can integrate of the entire area of the Earth’s surface]. Effectively, what this means is, that at time scales longer than about a year, the time-rate-of-change ocean heat content (d(OHC)/dt) should provide the most reliable indicator of the EEI.</div>
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Climate models indicate that the net EEI should become increasingly positive with time, as CO2 concentrations slowly increase. If this is the case, you would expect that the total energy content of the Earth’s oceans (e.g. from 0 to 2000 m) to increase at an ever-increasing rate with time. Note that this is the same as saying that the d(OHC)/dt (for 0 to 2000 m – measure in Zeta joules = 10^21 joules) should become increasingly positive with time, as well.</div>
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However, what if this is not true? In this case, it would bring into question CO2’s role in the forcing of the increasing world mean temperatures in recent decades.</div>
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The bottom graph in the following diagram shows the time-rate-of-change of the (0 to 2000m) OHC between 1940 and 2019.</div>
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h/t to Javier</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAscj_xeQ7_epUnKawdSumLwDvu_RSMke8KXsTH_crC1chWM3jGkhFYJA46vLFCMg53ZOXCa291n10vI4JuwIZ6DR9D80bDrMI-5XAa9xwBZHDA2UK8MB3ZCviStq-wKvWhRf7xsBgidsJ/s1600/Heat_Content.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1131" data-original-width="1064" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAscj_xeQ7_epUnKawdSumLwDvu_RSMke8KXsTH_crC1chWM3jGkhFYJA46vLFCMg53ZOXCa291n10vI4JuwIZ6DR9D80bDrMI-5XAa9xwBZHDA2UK8MB3ZCviStq-wKvWhRf7xsBgidsJ/s640/Heat_Content.jpg" width="602" /></a></div>
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The OHC data is available at:</div>
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<a href="http://159.226.119.60/cheng/images_files/OHC2000m_annual_timeseries.txt" rel="nofollow" style="color: #9e160d; text-decoration-line: none;">http://159.226.119.60/cheng/images_files/OHC2000m_annual_timeseries.txt</a></div>
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References:<br />
[1] Cheng L. and J. Zhu, 2016, Benefits of CMIP5 multimodel ensemble in reconstructing historical ocean subsurface temperature variation, Journal of Climate. 29(15),5393-5416<br />
[2]Cheng L. Et al., 2017: Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015, Science Advances, 3,e1601545.</div>
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What this bottom graph shows is that, contrary to the predictions of the climate scientist, the mean observed time-rate-of-change of the (0 to 2000 m) OHC actually decreased between 1940 and 1960, as well as between 1990 and 2019. It has only systematically increased for the 30 years between 1960 and 1990.</div>
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However, the top graph in this figure clearly shows that CO2 levels have been rising steadily since the end of WWII (with 86 % of all CO2 added to the atmosphere occurring after 1950). Hence, the increasing concentration of CO2 has been steadily applying a forcing to the Earth’s climate system, which should have produced a steady increase in the time-rate-of-change of the OHC.</div>
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A crude indicator of how the net EEI is changing with time is the time-rate-of-change of the world mean atmospheric temperature (i.e. dT/dt – known as the velocity of warming – measured in deg C per year). This is shown in the top graph of the diagram above. It is clear that it is broadly consistent with the results that we have obtained using the D(OHC)/dt.</div>
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What this post conclusively shows is that anthropogenic CO2 cannot be the primary forcing term for recent observed increases in the world’s mean atmospheric and oceanic temperatures.</div>
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UPDATE 20/01/2020 12:55 P.M. AEST<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Given the large uncertainties associated with the OHC measurements prior to ARGO and bearing in mind the power of the central limit theorem, it is possible that the extrema (i.e. largest and smallest values) of the (annual) d(OHC)/dt time series could be used to track its mean value over time.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">If you apply this concept to the Cheng et al. (2020) OHC data you get the lower one of the two graphs shown above.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">What is remarkable about this plot is that while the d(OHC)/dt curve on the bottom only covers the 80 years from 1940 to 2019, it sinusoidal nature looks remarkably similar to that of the plot of d(T)/dt vs. time that covers the 120 years from 1900 to 2019.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Taken together, these two plots raise serious questions about CO2 as a major driver of world-mean atmospheric and oceanic temperatures.<br /><br />************</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The Central Limit Theorem does apply in this case. It all depends on how you define “the sample”.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">The sample can be the individual measurements of OHC, which vary in both time and space. Each of these measurements has an error that gets progressively worse with time prior to the start of the use of ARGO buoys.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Equally, the sample could be defined as the total OHC (i.e. the sum of the individual measurements) at any given time. This is a repeated measurement of a quantity (n = sample size = 1) that has its own associated uncertainty. Granted, you can argue about whether or not this quantity has any useful meaning in the real world but climate scientists believe that it is representative of the state of the overall climate system.</span></div>
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<a href="https://www.khanacademy.org/math/ap-statistics/sampling-distribution-ap/sampling-distribution-mean/v/central-limit-theorem" rel="nofollow ugc" style="border: 0px; color: #b26600; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">https://www.khanacademy.org/math/ap-statistics/sampling-distribution-ap/sampling-distribution-mean/v/central-limit-theorem</span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana, sans-serif;">Of course, the larger the sample size (n), the closer distribution points about the drifting long term means will approach that of a bell-curve. This means that we can use the upper and lower envelop of the observations to crudely gauge the drift of the 1st moment of d(OHC)/dt.</span></div>
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Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com12tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-18098843646781672912020-01-05T21:14:00.001-08:002020-02-13T00:45:51.892-08:00Temporary Post - Confronting the Big Lie<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<b>No! Droughts are not getting worse because of increasing CO2!!</b></div>
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h/t <span style="background-color: white; color: #404040; font-family: "pt serif" , serif; font-size: 15.9px;">Christopher Monckton of Brenchley</span><a href="https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/05/bush-bull/">https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/01/05/bush-bull/</a><br />
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ht/ Jo Nova<br />
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<br />Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-28690077585921333642020-01-03T21:35:00.000-08:002020-01-03T21:35:11.742-08:00At What Point Do We Declare That The 2020 El Nino Has Started?02-JAN-2002 12:00 UTC - Peak sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies lie between 3.3 and 4.5 C across 80 % of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. If it persists, I believe that what we are seeing are the signs of the onset of the 2020 El Nino.<br />
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<br />Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-19062670493067771762020-01-02T23:25:00.000-08:002020-01-03T19:52:49.412-08:00Temporary Post - January 03-04 Bush FiresSee below for update at 2:20 P.M. AEST Saturday 04-01-2020<br /><br />
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Update at 2:20 P.M. AEST Saturday 04-01-2020 as winds pick up to > 30 km/hour (peak gusts ~ 50 - 60 Km/hr) with the approach of a cold front from the west.<br />
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<a href="https://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weather.cgi?station=Cooma.NSW">https://ozforecast.com.au/cgi-bin/weather.cgi?station=Cooma.NSW</a></div>
<br />Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-37248179807491136822020-01-02T05:05:00.000-08:002020-01-02T05:05:05.162-08:00Temporary Post - Solar + Lunar Influence on ENSOThe following wavelet transform of the SOI (since 1960) clearly shows two periods that are part of the 31-year Perigean New/Full Moon tidal cycle. These periods are the 18.03 year Saros Cycle and the 12.97 years ~ 13.0-year lunar pseudo cycle, such that: <br />
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31 years = 18 years + 13.0 years<br />
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If the ENSO cycle (i.e. La Ninas and El Ninos) is caused by a combination of the 31.0-year Perigean New/Full Moon lunar tidal cycles and the 11.2-year solar sunspot cycle, then you might expect to see a periodic peak at the mean of the 13.0-year lunar pseudo cycle and the 11.2 solar sunspot cycle i.e.<br />
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(13.0 + 11.2)/2 = 12.1 years.<br />
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Close inspection of the following figure shows that this appears to be the case.<br />
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Ref: <a href="https://twitter.com/peikko763?protected_redirect=true">https://twitter.com/peikko763?protected_redirect=true</a>Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-81619842955129329202019-12-23T23:29:00.003-08:002019-12-23T23:29:53.310-08:00Temporary Post - Bushfires<br />
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<br />Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-84610428538344971902019-12-15T06:31:00.000-08:002019-12-15T06:31:30.991-08:00Will the West Pacific trade winds die down around January 4th 2020? The following figure shows that the West Pacific trade winds died down around the 17th of September 2019 and two tropical months (i.e. 56.4 days) later around 10th of November 2010.<br />
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Ref: <a href="https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-264.34,3.17,416">https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-264.34,3.17,416</a><br />
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Just prior to these two dates, a hybrid combination of an Equatorial Rosby wave and Equatorial Kevin wave, known as a Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), past just north of Papua New Guinea.<br />Associated with the Rosby wave component of the MJO were a pair of tropical low-pressure cells located on either side of the Equator that produced a burst of strong westerly winds that dramatically reduced the strength of the West Pacific trade winds a few days later.<br />
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The figure below displays the time-longitude plots for 850 hPa westerly wind anomalies covering this period of time. It clearly shows the Aug-Sep and Oct-Nov MJO events that "kill" the West Pacific trade winds around September 17th and November 10th.<br />
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Ref: <a href="http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Time-longitude">http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Time-longitude</a></div>
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If this pattern repeats itself, then we should expect the strength of West Pacific Trade winds to die down around January 4th, 2020. It will be interesting to see if this is enough to tip the Pacific in its EL Nino mode or will it require a couple more of these (lunar-driven) events.Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-6345251386237824682019-12-12T15:45:00.000-08:002019-12-28T08:27:16.200-08:00The Lunar Alignment Density Index and the Upcoming 2020 El Nino Event<br />
There have been five major El Nino events between 1996 and 2019. These events occurred in the years: 1997-98, 2002-03, 2006-07, 2009-10, and 2015-16.<br />
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These events occur when the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (Eq. SOI) is > 0.0 for an extended period of time as shown by the red curve in the first of two figures displayed below.<br />
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N.B. For a decription of the Eq. SOI go to:<br />
<a href="https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/why-are-there-so-many-enso-indexes-instead-just-one">https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/why-are-there-so-many-enso-indexes-instead-just-one</a><br />
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Wilson and Sidorenkov (2020) have developed a preliminary Lunar Alignment Density Index (LADI) that shows that there are increases in the frequency of periods of close alignment (< 0.6 days) between two lunar cycles, that precede each of these major El Nino events. See the areas in dark blue that are highlighted in the following graph.<br />
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The exact nature of the LADI cannot be discussed at this point because it is being submitted for publication in the peer-reviewed literature. Suffice it to say, that index incorporates two distinct lunar cycles that we believe are responsible for the generation of Equatorial Rosby and Kelvin waves.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMNUm9IuIC4WioGmH9ZQGxdnp1cy-vsmzMoEU7Yu-BhSpzY6aLDIvrA_DauUCiSqPqNo7LadOn90e7ta204LI0qPnIPlOp9ar8dAVB-rC1O2F_6TfCkrki4q5ctVXRJjqZyF7DYTriquwn/s1600/Comparison_LAI_SOI.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="637" data-original-width="977" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMNUm9IuIC4WioGmH9ZQGxdnp1cy-vsmzMoEU7Yu-BhSpzY6aLDIvrA_DauUCiSqPqNo7LadOn90e7ta204LI0qPnIPlOp9ar8dAVB-rC1O2F_6TfCkrki4q5ctVXRJjqZyF7DYTriquwn/s640/Comparison_LAI_SOI.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
Reference Eq. SOI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/reqsoi.for<br />
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What the LADI tells us is that if our hypothesis connecting the two lunar cycles with the generation of Equatorial Rossby and Kelvin Waves is correct, then the should be a major El Nino event sometime in the coming year (i.e. 2020).<br />
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It is important to note, however, that the prediction of a 2020 El Nino event is subject to the caveat that we are approaching a period where the 11.2-year (solar-driven) cycle in the strength of the (Equatorial) West Pacific trade winds reaches a maximum sometime in 2021-22 (see the graph below). This could tip the Pacific Ocean towards a La Nina event just after the 2020 El Nino event (i.e. possibly by the 2020-21 southern-hemisphere summer.)<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf1TknY5cWKs7Su9zjmULzB6BRgXLgWMECGDfDeQnuseJJ-P4ULn1LX_-efRmAz4ufT5V_Sgkidrp1Sh8kTxuCbNOQhB8mqbX4cIf11q1w4CbnK5hhwl2k8WuTXCTE8irs8rVmLx8FV8CC/s1600/850hPa_Trade_Winds.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="637" data-original-width="977" height="416" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjf1TknY5cWKs7Su9zjmULzB6BRgXLgWMECGDfDeQnuseJJ-P4ULn1LX_-efRmAz4ufT5V_Sgkidrp1Sh8kTxuCbNOQhB8mqbX4cIf11q1w4CbnK5hhwl2k8WuTXCTE8irs8rVmLx8FV8CC/s640/850hPa_Trade_Winds.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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ref: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wpac850Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-59411237289138730872019-11-17T09:31:00.003-08:002019-11-17T09:31:50.898-08:00Keeping Track of the Latest MJO Event - 16-17/11/2019<br />
The MJO event has finished crossing the whole of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. This event has killed the equatorial trade winds across the western 55 % of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. It is also starting to warm the SST anomalies off the west coast of Equador to 2.3 C.<br /><br />A. 1000 hPa Wind Map.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI0QDtVaG7LJGfhFjlWM1N5g8yrXpl6VmWAeAzBtgu0a4DZ-bHPG7Pc_0Vo_FnylFQqlZbawh9iD3Dwz_5Nou2m1Z7vzl2MyCiDX7KY4rzqL1USe0SQtxSOCzYmQMCASMXaYyY2zl23SlN/s1600/1000hPa_17_11_2019_15UT.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="684" data-original-width="625" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgI0QDtVaG7LJGfhFjlWM1N5g8yrXpl6VmWAeAzBtgu0a4DZ-bHPG7Pc_0Vo_FnylFQqlZbawh9iD3Dwz_5Nou2m1Z7vzl2MyCiDX7KY4rzqL1USe0SQtxSOCzYmQMCASMXaYyY2zl23SlN/s640/1000hPa_17_11_2019_15UT.jpg" width="584" /></a></div>
<br />Ref: <a href="https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-192.95,0.57,416">https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-192.95,0.57,416</a><br />
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B. This time the SST Anomalies off the west coasts of Panama, Columbia & Equador have increased to 2.3 to 2.5 C. <br /><br />It will be interesting to see if this warming continues and spreads south towards the west coast of Peru!<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2aNn41YRGX0XeGsltP5MPpOV78S7w7trgMrrosBcReSlAGRE4keRUiL1UJeqbuKyayh8EiktyaaEOrZwUNblHaqoQarT2b4X4Q6wApS4pVl5IXAtQ331j__GeXkqvMjE8ONhG0CXG7jan/s1600/SST_anom_17_11_2019_15UT.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="676" data-original-width="624" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi2aNn41YRGX0XeGsltP5MPpOV78S7w7trgMrrosBcReSlAGRE4keRUiL1UJeqbuKyayh8EiktyaaEOrZwUNblHaqoQarT2b4X4Q6wApS4pVl5IXAtQ331j__GeXkqvMjE8ONhG0CXG7jan/s640/SST_anom_17_11_2019_15UT.jpg" width="590" /></a></div>
<br />Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-45507417215634695482019-11-09T07:30:00.001-08:002019-11-17T09:19:07.036-08:00Keeping Track of the Latest MJO Event - 09/11/2019 15:00 UT<div style="text-align: center;">
<span style="color: red; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;">The tradewinds have died over the western half of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean!</span></div>
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<span style="color: red; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-aEQOWNwjm9Xlel8JGDRst6rZXfVg5Hu1nluoNpjs_6eB1z5SPR-HYG5FapZpf_whFGqfKrp1kn59X_iR1CMFHjNfUDSdO1cPCZmDehUzHRg9m6o9cXysuvqkuOBC5J5sPEGVEdBx5ylg/s1600/TW_die_09_11_19.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="756" data-original-width="1344" height="360" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-aEQOWNwjm9Xlel8JGDRst6rZXfVg5Hu1nluoNpjs_6eB1z5SPR-HYG5FapZpf_whFGqfKrp1kn59X_iR1CMFHjNfUDSdO1cPCZmDehUzHRg9m6o9cXysuvqkuOBC5J5sPEGVEdBx5ylg/s640/TW_die_09_11_19.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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Ref: <a href="https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/11/09/1500Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-147.51,-0.00,416/loc=-127.538,-57.670">https://earth.nullschool.net/#2019/11/09/1500Z/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-147.51,-0.00,416/loc=-127.538,-57.670</a><br />
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>There is one piece of telling evidence that links this phenomenon to the lunar tides. </b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The following image shows a comparison between the current 1000 hPa wind map [10-11-2019 03:00 UTC - on the right] with the corresponding 1000 hPa wind map almost exactly 2.0 tropical months (= 54.6 days) earlier [17-09-2019 03:00 UTC - on the left] </span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">[N.B. This is a difference equivalent to 54.0 days]. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_sXba00bv1XjPo66haRuFsk-e5HbVnWx_ESc-RkdDqw1qlR-ysBRU0r43IW1jTS0drJ3tZ_vIG-yTJ9YXU9VKhswmHuPHALGUNUw8mJUR0jphx5Qosv4UUc4HKifu8kjBnYAv9WN_Y7nL/s1600/Two_Tropical_Months.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="681" data-original-width="1261" height="344" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_sXba00bv1XjPo66haRuFsk-e5HbVnWx_ESc-RkdDqw1qlR-ysBRU0r43IW1jTS0drJ3tZ_vIG-yTJ9YXU9VKhswmHuPHALGUNUw8mJUR0jphx5Qosv4UUc4HKifu8kjBnYAv9WN_Y7nL/s640/Two_Tropical_Months.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">In addition (to within 4.0 hours) these images closely correspond to times when the sub-lunar point is crossing the Earth's equator (moving from southwest to northeast along the lunar orbit), as shown in the next image.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkoqdx_wajCM9j-29ZFHG9UyEeW0GZTMvQCKK0w252WqHpXbU0a4HGQQgX_DWzMaEeeug1bjPJFaCdB2XErdbeCssQAX3hQiE2PfwRouVC8SvNvu2K_luNJKRbyZSLBCTm8vwGdwGRMwF6/s1600/Lunar_Comparison.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="850" data-original-width="960" height="566" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkoqdx_wajCM9j-29ZFHG9UyEeW0GZTMvQCKK0w252WqHpXbU0a4HGQQgX_DWzMaEeeug1bjPJFaCdB2XErdbeCssQAX3hQiE2PfwRouVC8SvNvu2K_luNJKRbyZSLBCTm8vwGdwGRMwF6/s640/Lunar_Comparison.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif; font-size: large;"><b>Coincidence? Not likely!!</b> </span></div>
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Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-56045575646224262092019-11-06T02:02:00.000-08:002019-11-07T01:55:49.027-08:00Keeping Track of the Latest MJO Event - 04/11/2019<span style="color: red;"><b>The MJO has just started breaking into the Western Pacific Ocean!</b></span><br />
<span style="color: red;"><b>It is producing Westerly Wind Bursts (WWBs) just to the north of New Guinea!!</b></span><br />
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<span style="color: blue;"><b>The equatorial trade winds have died wester-ward of 165 E longitude!!!</b></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>Let the fireworks begin!!!!</b></span><br />
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Additional graph added 07/11/2019<br />
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A. Location<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMPCSP6nOxvhIQpfDi834kqOb-5h8U4GxHGGk0vGWNctGsGRLPBja3NFXRS_bRsFgUmTz1OguyIc8dlzZyzGk0zHbSdGQVQRdaZwebWvGxrE0OXUUrssuNTHPrkKOMv4CNcV61jE6u0zBi/s1600/RMM_04_11_19.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="592" data-original-width="1241" height="304" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgMPCSP6nOxvhIQpfDi834kqOb-5h8U4GxHGGk0vGWNctGsGRLPBja3NFXRS_bRsFgUmTz1OguyIc8dlzZyzGk0zHbSdGQVQRdaZwebWvGxrE0OXUUrssuNTHPrkKOMv4CNcV61jE6u0zBi/s640/RMM_04_11_19.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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B. 1000 hPa Near-Surface Wind Map - Showing the developing Westerly Wind Bursts (WWBs)</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6A3HSjl_-jlVQ5hMO1izlV3o2I5cE9RtbUNCKipWcOXW1ZWwj2sV5lxc6N5B6VMkaXnbGNQQ3Su90WGDGOs5UjB2YAqdLjRFRoa1bOPaYqBL0FLu7Z5P_ugjsKdH-Hl68E8cd7YUM0L6V/s1600/1000hPa_04_11_2019_06UT.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="679" data-original-width="646" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6A3HSjl_-jlVQ5hMO1izlV3o2I5cE9RtbUNCKipWcOXW1ZWwj2sV5lxc6N5B6VMkaXnbGNQQ3Su90WGDGOs5UjB2YAqdLjRFRoa1bOPaYqBL0FLu7Z5P_ugjsKdH-Hl68E8cd7YUM0L6V/s640/1000hPa_04_11_2019_06UT.jpg" width="608" /></a></div>
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C. 70 hPa Wind Map - Showing an Eq. Kelvin Wave beginning to de-couple from the MJO </div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1cOMMZhhQknFaAIUA3WaYJ3FrkBTfq2ayS7tXe9FPXOKy5jJahS2M1tYqbMJ8gImQEq8-Zxh-9zgItrg-s8AHvLhXf1OMynDUhTTN-vwDMivbv4B0aAHtidBAMh6FCaADu8MeDbU8i2Se/s1600/70hpa_04_11_19.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="677" data-original-width="620" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg1cOMMZhhQknFaAIUA3WaYJ3FrkBTfq2ayS7tXe9FPXOKy5jJahS2M1tYqbMJ8gImQEq8-Zxh-9zgItrg-s8AHvLhXf1OMynDUhTTN-vwDMivbv4B0aAHtidBAMh6FCaADu8MeDbU8i2Se/s640/70hpa_04_11_19.jpg" width="586" /></a></div>
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D. And people wonder how (many of) the tropical storms in South Asia are generated!</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwZooWvZWkpFA73VlJsGel2GVB0dS4FbB8YgpOwIFBBtlLfMEyLEiZh_EmJlahemxgbPSNW6AWtygP2G-uqEBlm4siMN4Uqe8byj7KKO2CmVVyQc3VCtneODV3zubxAeAbLdpI1S45ddYL/s1600/850hPa_07_11_2019.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="677" data-original-width="632" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgwZooWvZWkpFA73VlJsGel2GVB0dS4FbB8YgpOwIFBBtlLfMEyLEiZh_EmJlahemxgbPSNW6AWtygP2G-uqEBlm4siMN4Uqe8byj7KKO2CmVVyQc3VCtneODV3zubxAeAbLdpI1S45ddYL/s640/850hPa_07_11_2019.jpg" width="596" /></a></div>
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<br />Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-31828614502338202312019-11-02T20:47:00.001-07:002019-11-02T20:51:07.430-07:00Red Pill 4 - Take this Red Pill and You Start Seeing Reality!<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9ZdawIqCfMOn-3Hin1ATpCfmErLl2_R4A8hXEt8ut12uXaeKtzztCxOIBu26y_zCrMr2RlzVCjUaEspvuWr2sfAs_XVsqXOvLmFZ9ocrWWbZhi2jayxOyDLEnQKdXPqe8Gr7GagkbFEqi/s1600/Rabbit_hole.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" data-original-height="602" data-original-width="900" height="428" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9ZdawIqCfMOn-3Hin1ATpCfmErLl2_R4A8hXEt8ut12uXaeKtzztCxOIBu26y_zCrMr2RlzVCjUaEspvuWr2sfAs_XVsqXOvLmFZ9ocrWWbZhi2jayxOyDLEnQKdXPqe8Gr7GagkbFEqi/s640/Rabbit_hole.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;"><b><span style="color: red; font-size: small;">You are now are deep down the rabbit hole and you are beginning to see the real world!</span></b></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">
<b style="font-size: 13.2px;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">[Please click on the "RED PILL 1, 2 & 3" links if you haven't read these red pills.]</span></b></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.2px;">
<b style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><br /></b></div>
<b style="background-color: yellow;"></b><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="color: red;"><a href="https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-first-red-pill-how-can-you.html" style="color: #7c93a1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">RED PILL 1</a> </span></b><b><i>T</i></b><b><i>he influence of cycles in the atmospheric lunar tides upon the Earth's atmospheric pressure can be re-inforced (i.e weaponized) if they constructively interfere with the annual seasonal cycle. </i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: red;"><b><a href="https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-second-red-pill-seasonal-peak.html" style="color: #7c93a1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">RED PILL 2</a></b></span> <b><i>If the lunisolar atmospheric tides that are associated with the <span style="color: red;">Peak Seasonal Spring Tides</span> play a role in influencing the Earth's atmospheric pressure, you should see variations in this pressure that occur at intervals of 3.8-year (= 1/5th the Metonic Cycle)</i></b><b><i>.</i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="color: red;"><a href="https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-third-red-pill-seasonal-peak.html" target="_blank">RED PILL 3</a></span><i> </i></b></span><b style="font-family: times, "times new roman", serif;"><i>If the lunisolar atmospheric tides that are associated with the <span style="color: red;">Peak Seasonal Draconic Spring Tides</span> play a role in influencing the Earth's atmospheric pressure, you should see variations in this pressure that occur at intervals of 9.3-year (= 1/2th the 18.6-year precession cycle of the lunar line-of-nodes)</i></b><b style="font-family: times, "times new roman", serif;"><i>.</i></b></div>
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<b style="background-color: white; font-family: times, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 13.2px;"><i><span style="color: red;">RED PILL 4</span> </i></b><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><i>supports the conclusion that long-term changes in the lunar tides caused by the slow (18.6-year) precession of the tilt of the lunar orbit with respect to the Ecliptic, in combination with the more dominant solar-driven seasonal cycles, play an important role in determining the observed inter-annual to decadal variations of the peak latitude anomaly of the summer (DJF) subtropical high-pressure ridge over Eastern Australia (Lsa) between 1860 and 2010. </i></b></span></div>
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<span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>THERE ARE FIVE MAIN TAKEAWAYS FROM RED PILL 4</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">1. This post looks for evidence of a correlation between long-term changes in the lunar tidal forces and the interannual to decadal variability of the peak latitude anomaly of the summer (DJF) subtropical high-pressure ridge over
Eastern Australia (Lsa) between 1860 and 2010. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">2. A simple "resonance" model is proposed that assumes that if lunar tides
play a role in influencing Lsa, it is most likely one where the tidal forces act in "resonance" with the changes caused by
the far more dominant solar-driven seasonal cycles. With this type of model, it is not so much in what years do the lunar
tides reach their maximum strength, but whether or not there are peaks in the strength of the lunar tides that re-occur at the
same time within the annual seasonal cycle. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">3. The “resonance” model predicts that if the lunar atmospheric tides associated with the seasonal peak lunar cycles have a
measurable effect upon Lsa then there should be significant oscillatory signals in Lsa that vary in-phase with the 9.31-year seasonal peak draconic spring tides, and the 3.80-year seasonal peak spring tides. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">4. This is exactly what we see in the real world Lsa data over Eastern Australia between 1860 and 2010. Wilson [6] identifies
significant peaks in the spectrum of Lsa at 9.4 (+0.4/-0.3) and 3.78 (± 0.06) tropical years. In addition, the study shows that the observed 9.4-year signal is in-phase with the draconic tidal cycle.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOdwRaGJYoXjoDELjph-ibPJ25DzBi02wFSgL6Ogczq8RPx8sFbyHfBlzYVKYdvpijGplMIXjHnuzTXozgqNVfBhaDR3e0-7kfjoeSdLoY3YIZLwjL2wOOJSCOZOaF7_ij71sKOACTgRUb/s1600/Spectrum_Lsa.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="574" data-original-width="919" height="248" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhOdwRaGJYoXjoDELjph-ibPJ25DzBi02wFSgL6Ogczq8RPx8sFbyHfBlzYVKYdvpijGplMIXjHnuzTXozgqNVfBhaDR3e0-7kfjoeSdLoY3YIZLwjL2wOOJSCOZOaF7_ij71sKOACTgRUb/s400/Spectrum_Lsa.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="color: blue;">5.</span></b> <b><span style="color: blue;">Thus, red pill 4 supports the conclusion that long-term changes in
the lunar tides caused by the slow (18.6-year) precession of the tilt of the lunar orbit with respect to the Ecliptic, in combination with the more dominant solar-driven seasonal cycles, play an important role in determining
the observed inter-annual to decadal variations of </span></b></span><b><span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">the peak latitude anomaly of the summer (DJF) subtropical high-pressure ridge over Eastern Australia (Lsa) between 1860 and 2010.</span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span></span></b><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b style="background-color: white; color: blue;">A. <u>The Sub-Tropical High-Pressure Ridge</u></b><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">1. The Hadley atmospheric circulation cells ensure that the Earth is surrounded by two broad bands of high-pressure roughly located 30 degrees north and south of the Equator. These bands of high pressure are known as the Sub-Tropical High-Pressure Ridge (STHR).</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">2. The peaks of the STHRs slowly drift from north to south, and vice versa, with the seasons.</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">3. During the Southern Hemisphere Winter (in July), the peak of the Southern STHR is located at roughly 27 S.</span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1T_zHLowmXbFjY2iF6CM3Imvg-3OZMfuCrrJAhyOUdScUhkzAl424nMfhAImuldyCuq6eKrNd-kK4CfNzDztu9Dh1LCeTg-S56m90e1WjKC7jRkpYJKiFiKGiSeT_RxVnb678jO5UkfSA/s1600/Semipermanent%252BPressure%252BCells_%252BNH%252Bsummer_01.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="402" data-original-width="652" height="394" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1T_zHLowmXbFjY2iF6CM3Imvg-3OZMfuCrrJAhyOUdScUhkzAl424nMfhAImuldyCuq6eKrNd-kK4CfNzDztu9Dh1LCeTg-S56m90e1WjKC7jRkpYJKiFiKGiSeT_RxVnb678jO5UkfSA/s640/Semipermanent%252BPressure%252BCells_%252BNH%252Bsummer_01.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">4. </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">On average, the centre of the Southern STHR moves south by six degrees to 33 S during the height of the Southern Hemisphere Summer (i.e. January), with the peak of the pressure ridge moving as far as 42 to 43 S during the latter half of summer (i.e. February).</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">5. During the summer months (DJF), there are four semi-permanent high-pressure cells embedded within the Southern STHR. The first is centered on the island of Tahiti in the South Pacific, the second is centered on the island of Tristan Da Cunha in the South Atlantic, the third is located off the west coast of Australia in the Indian ocean, and the fourth is located off the South-Eastern coast of Australia. The latter is often split between the Tasman Sea and the Great Australian Bight with the relative strength and location of the two cells changing over time.</span></span></div>
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<b style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;">B. <u>The Peak of the Sub-Tropical High-Pressure Ridge Over Eastern Australia</u></b></div>
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<b style="background-color: white; color: blue; font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;"><u><br /></u></b></div>
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The UK Met Office Hadley-Centre (UKMO) has published a data set called hadSLP2r.asc (Adam and Ansell [1]; www.hadobs.org [2]) that contains the mean monthly sea-level pressure (MSLP), averaged over 5 x 5-degree latitude-longitude bins, between the years (January) 1850 to (June) 2010. </div>
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The hadSLP2r data has been used to create a meridional profile of the MSLP, for each of the summer months (i.e. December, January, and February) for the years 1852 to 2010 (hereafter referred to as the UKMO data set). This has been done by taking a latitudinal average of three 5 x 5-degree bins centered at 140E, 145E, and 150E, for each 5-degree step in latitude between 0 and 65 degrees south. N.B.
the profile data points have not been weighted to correct for
the difference in area between 5 x 5-degree bins with
changing latitude. </div>
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The following figure shows the ranges in latitude and longitude over the Australian Continent that are used to create the mean meridional profile for the summer months (DJF), for each year between 1852 and 2010. </div>
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The following figure shows a meridional profile of the MSLP for
February 1984. </div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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The profile shown in this figure is a typical example of the meridional profiles found in the UKMO data set. In this profile, we can see a zone of low pressure produced by the Summer Monsoonal Trough centered near 10 degrees S, a ridge of high pressure produced by the STR near 40 deg S, and the second zone of low pressure, south of 60 degrees, that is associated with the Sub-Polar Trough. </div>
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Bezier Functions (Microsoft Excel) and Cubic Spine curves were fitted to each of the monthly meridional profile curves to determine their peak latitudes (L). Monthly anomalies for L were obtained using a mean
monthly value of L for the base period 1961-1990 (William
and Stone [3]).</div>
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William and Stone [3] point out that it is
important to investigate the monthly anomaly of L on a
seasonally-averaged, rather than annually-averaged basis.
Following their advice, we have taken the latitude anomalies
for December, January, and February for each year and
averaged them together to give a mean summer value for the
anomaly of L (hereafter referred to as Lsa) for all of the
years from 1851 to 2010. <b>N.B. Lsa is defined so that a positive
value means that the STR is north of the mean latitude for
that summer season.</b></div>
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The following figure shows the anomaly of the peak latitude of the Summer Sub-Tropical High-Pressure Ridge over Eastern Australia (Lsa) for the years from 1851 to 2010. </div>
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A program called Redfit 3.8e (Schulz and Mudelsee [4])
was used to generate a Lomb-Scargle periodogram of the LSA
data set. The parameters used in the configuration file
needed to run Redfit were set to values that maximize the spectral resolution of the periodogram (N.B. for a detailed
description of the parameters used with Redfit see Schulz
and Mudelsee [4]). </div>
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The resulting spectrum is displayed in the figure below. The output of Redfit program indicates that the noise in the periodogram is consistent with an AR1 (red-noise) process.
The solid continuous dark line running across the top of the
spectrum in the figure is the critical false alarm level (CFAL)
(Thomas [5]). Any periodic signals that have peak
amplitudes exceeding this threshold level are believed to be
inconsistent with an AR1 origin and so are considered
significant. </div>
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Hence, the only significant peaks in the spectrum
in the following figure are those at 9.4 (+0.4/-0.3) and 3.78 (± 0.06)
(N.B. the errors of the periods given are set at ± half of the
6dB bandwidth). The 9.4-year peak is consistent with the
period of the 9.3-year seasonal draconic spring tidal cycle and the 3.8
year peak with the 3.8 year period of the seasonal spring tidal cycle.</div>
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(A Lomb-Scargle periodogram of the LSA data set. The spectral amplitude is scaled such that the area under the spectrum is an estimator for the data variance.)</div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">What this spectrum tells us is that the variations in the latitude anomaly of the peak of the summer (DJF) STHR over Eastern Australia exhibit the same period as that of the 18.6-year draconic tidal cycle (Wilson [6]).</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">In essence, what this means is that, on average, the latitude of the peak of the STHR moves back and forth in latitude by one degree between the years where the Line-of-Nodes of the lunar orbit points directly towards or away from the Sun at the time of Perihelion, and the years where the Line-of-Nodes is at right angles to the Earth-Sun line at the time of Perihelion.</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><u>References</u></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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[1] Allan RJ, Ansell TJ. <i>A new globally complete monthly historical
mean sea level pressure data set (HadSLP2): 1850 – 2004</i>. J
Climate <b>2006</b>; 19: 5816-42. </div>
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[2] <a href="http://www.hadobs.org/">www.hadobs.org</a>, hadSLP2r, accessed: Mar <b>2011</b>.</div>
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[3] Williams AJ, Stone RC. <i>An assessment of relationships between
the Australian subtropical ridge, rainfall variability, and high-latitude circulation patterns.</i> Int J Climatol <b>2009</b>; 29: 691-709. </div>
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<br /></div>
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[4] Schulz M, Mudelsee M. <i>REDFIT: estimating red-noise spectra
directly from unevenly spaced paleoclimatic time series</i>. Comp
Geosci <b>2002</b>; 28: 421-6. </div>
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[5] Thomson DJ. <i>Time series analysis of Holocene climate data.</i>
Philosophical Trans R Soc Lond Ser A <b>1990</b>; 330: 601-16.
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[6] <span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Wilson I.R.G. <i>Lunar tides and the long-term variation of the peak latitude anomaly of the summer Sub-Tropical High-Pressure Ridge over Eastern Australia</i>. Open Atmos Sci J <b>2012</b>; 6: 49-60.</span></span></div>
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Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-90632945941162465782019-11-02T20:04:00.000-07:002019-11-02T20:04:36.593-07:00The Third Red Pill - Seasonal Peak Draconic Spring Tides <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtnzhkii0qOjSnKyoqck_tB4rLZ6e9afzMXjx1T-3b-jtvWkAGuACVskVzX4o55TA0g3tAkF2pIjuNUOwzWVWwNf9gSLywqOjkN6j6IfY4fWHd3lu7BIGDq-cF87xdn6cssX32PwpIkT1_/s1600/GO_against_the_flow.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="1024" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtnzhkii0qOjSnKyoqck_tB4rLZ6e9afzMXjx1T-3b-jtvWkAGuACVskVzX4o55TA0g3tAkF2pIjuNUOwzWVWwNf9gSLywqOjkN6j6IfY4fWHd3lu7BIGDq-cF87xdn6cssX32PwpIkT1_/s400/GO_against_the_flow.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: red;"><b>You will have to make an effort if you want to swallow Red Pill 3</b> </span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">[Please click on the "RED PILL 1 & 2" links if you haven't read these red pills.]</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="color: red;"><a href="https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-first-red-pill-how-can-you.html" style="color: #7c93a1; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">RED PILL 1</a> </span></b><b><i>T</i></b><b><i>he influence of cycles in the atmospheric lunar tides upon the Earth's atmospheric pressure can be re-inforced (i.e weaponized) if they constructively interfere with the annual seasonal cycle. </i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: red;"><b><a href="https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/11/the-second-red-pill-seasonal-peak.html" target="_blank">RED PILL 2</a></b></span> <b><i>If the lunisolar atmospheric tides that are associated with the <span style="color: red;">Peak Seasonal Spring Tides</span> play a role in influencing the Earth's atmospheric pressure, you should see variations in this pressure that occur at intervals of 3.8-year (= 1/5th the Metonic Cycle)</i></b><b><i>.</i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><i><br /></i></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><span style="color: red;">RED PILL 3</span><i style="color: #222222;"> </i></b></span><b style="color: #222222; font-family: times, "times new roman", serif;"><i>If the lunisolar atmospheric tides that are associated with the <span style="color: red;">Peak Seasonal Draconic Spring Tides</span> play a role in influencing the Earth's atmospheric pressure, you should see variations in this pressure that occur at intervals of 9.3-year (= 1/2th the 18.6-year precession cycle of the lunar line-of-nodes)</i></b><b style="color: #222222; font-family: times, "times new roman", serif;"><i>.</i></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>Remember: </b></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: blue;">There are four factors that can affect the strength of seasonal peak tides i.e. peaks in the lunisolar tides that align with the seasons:</span></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<i><span style="color: red;"><b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">1. The proximity of the Earth/Moon system to the Sun. </span></b></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="color: red;"><b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">2. The relative position of the Moon with respect to the Sun i.e. the Moon's phase. </span></b></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="color: red;"><b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">3. The proximity of a New/Full Moon to one of the nodes of the lunar orbit. </span></b></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="color: red;"><b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">4. The proximity of a New/Full Moon to the perigee/apogee of the lunar orbit. </span></b></span></i></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The red-pill 3 blog post will specifically deal with the factor that affects the strength of the <span style="color: red;"><b><u>Seasonal Peak Draconic Spring Tides</u></b></span> i.e. factor 3.</span></div>
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<b><u><span style="color: purple;">GLOSSARY OF IMPORTANT TERMS</span></u></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: blue; font-weight: bold;">The draconic month </span>=<span style="color: blue; font-weight: bold;"> </span></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">27.212221 days. The time required for the Moon to move from one of the two nodes of its orbit back to the same node. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: blue;"><b>The tropical year</b></span> = 365.2421897 days. The length of the seasonal year.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><u>The Proximity of the New/Full Moon to One of the Nodes of the Lunar Orbit </u></span></b><br />
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<span style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The Moon moves around the Earth in an elliptical orbit that is inclined to the Earth-Sun plane (i.e. the Ecliptic) by ~ 5.1 degrees. This means that the Moon crosses the ecliptic at two points known as the nodes of the lunar orbit. </span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhajgDePLOOQuB9QTH5LJXwgvcLP_b8AYf48ssfvFdrOCHI5BCgwTe-cNLxZHHwYENGIGPskCx9bjfztvn1ztblsFNon_aU0z1g_ZY2NNuZUhAYTFSTppArB5TyqxjXvnBcJVeUeWlPY0hI/s1600/Moon_Nodes.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="244" data-original-width="379" height="257" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhajgDePLOOQuB9QTH5LJXwgvcLP_b8AYf48ssfvFdrOCHI5BCgwTe-cNLxZHHwYENGIGPskCx9bjfztvn1ztblsFNon_aU0z1g_ZY2NNuZUhAYTFSTppArB5TyqxjXvnBcJVeUeWlPY0hI/s400/Moon_Nodes.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: times, "times new roman", serif;">Hence, stronger than normal spring tides (known as draconic spring tides) occur whenever a New/Full Moon takes place near one of the nodes of the lunar orbit.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The Moon moves from one node back to the same node once every 27.212221 days. This period of time is called the Draconic lunar month. </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">It turns out that 13 1/2 draconic months are 2.122791 days longer than one topical year. Hence, if a lunar node aligns with the Sun on a given day of the year, 6.410 years will pass before another lunar node aligns with the Sun on roughly the same day of the year. </span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">This is true because 6.410 years is the number of years it takes for, the 2.122791 days per year slippage between 13 1/2 draconic months and the tropical year, to accumulate to half a draconic month of 13.606110 days.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: times, "times new roman", serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: times, "times new roman", serif;">Unfortunately, when a lunar node realigns with the Sun on roughly the same day of the year, the Moon is no longer at the same lunar phase. In order to have a lunar node realign with the Sun on the same day of the year, and for the Moon to return to the same phase (e.g. New/Full Moon) as well, it would take a period of time set by the beat period between 3.796 and 6.410 years i.e. 9.308 years.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">This means that if a New Moon takes place when one of the lunar nodes points at the Sun, 9.31 years later, a Full Moon will occur when a lunar node points at the Sun. Thus, the spacing between draconic spring tides is 9.31 years, a period equal to half of the 18.61336-year draconic lunar cycle. The latter is the time required for the lunar line-of-nodes to precess once around the Earth with respect to the stars). </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
Technically speaking, draconic spring tides do not fall exactly on the same day of the annual seasonal cycle. However, they do take place within +5/-4 days either side of a given date (with an average absolute difference of only ~ 2.6 days), so they can be considered to be quasi-peak seasonal tides that take place on roughly the same day of the year, once every 9 or 10 years<br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: times, "times new roman", serif;">The strongest of the seasonal draconic spring tidal events that occur at the times of total or partial solar and lunar eclipses. Hence, r</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: times, "times new roman", serif;">eal-life evidence of the 9 or 10-year seasonal draconic spring tidal cycle can be seen in you list all total and partial lunar and solar eclipses that fall on or about a certain date. </span><div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: times, "times new roman", serif;">The following table lists all the 20th century total and partial lunar and solar eclipses that occur within +/- 6 days of the 21 st of September 00:00 UT.</span></div>
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: times, times new roman, serif;"><br /></span><br /><div>
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<span style="color: blue;"><b>Year____Day____Time from____Eclipse Type___Duration_____Lunar___Lunar____Spacing</b></span></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"><b>_______________21 Sep 0 UT______________________________Phase___Node______from___</b></span><br />
<span style="color: blue;"><b>_______________dd:hr:min:sec___________________________________________Last Eclipse</b></span><br />
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1903___Sep 21___00:04:39:52___Total Solar_____2 m 12 sec____NM________________0 years<br />
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1912___Sep 26___05:11:45:_____Partial Lunar_____84 m_______FM___Ascending_____9 years<br />
<b>1913___Sep 15__-05:11:12:_____Total Lunar___232 m / 94 m__FM___Ascending___10 years</b><br />
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1922___Sep 21___00:04:40:31___Total Solar______5 m 59 s_____NM________________9 years<br />
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1931___Sep 26___05:19:48:_____Total Lunar____228 m / 84 m___FM___Ascending____9 years<br />
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1941___Sep 21___00:04:34:03___Total Solar_____3 m 22 s______NM_______________10 years<br />
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1950___Sep 26___05:04:17:_____Total Lunar____210 m / 46 m___FM___Ascending____9 years<br />
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1960___Sep 20__-01:01:04:_____Partial Solar_______0 m_______NM_______________10 years<br />
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1968___Sep 22___01:11:18:46___Total Solar_______40 sec______NM________________8 years<br />
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1978___Sep 16__-04:04:56:_____Total Lunar____208 m / 80 m___FM____Descending__10 years<br />
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1987___Sep 23___02:03:12:22__Annular Solar_____3 m 49 s_____NM________________9 years<br />
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1996___Sep 27___06:02:54:_____Total Lunar____204 m / 70 m___FM____Descending___9 years<br />
<b>1997___Sep 16__-04:05:13:_____Total Lunar___198 m / 62 m___FM___Descending___10 years</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b><span style="color: blue;">Average Spacing From Last Eclispse__________________________________________9.4 years</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: blue;"><br /></span></b>
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This shows that the average spacing between peak seasonal draconic spring tides is 9.4 years, which is close to 9.3 years (= half of<span style="color: #222222; font-family: times, "times new roman", serif;"> the 18.6-year precession cycle of the lunar line-of-nodes)</span>.<br />
<br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: times, "times new roman", serif;">Hence, if the lunisolar atmospheric tides that are associated with the <span style="color: red;">Peak Seasonal Draconic Spring Tides</span> play a role in influencing the Earth's atmospheric pressure, you should see variations in this pressure that occur at intervals of 9.3-year (= 1/2th the 18.6-year precession cycle of the lunar line-of-nodes)</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: times, "times new roman", serif;">.</span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: times, "times new roman", serif;"><br /></span>
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<b><u>References</u>:</b></div>
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Wilson, I.R.G., <i>Lunar Tides and the Long-Term Variation of the Peak Latitude Anomaly of the Summer Sub-Tropical High-Pressure Ridge over Eastern Australia</i>, The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2012, 6, 49-60<br /><br />http://benthamopen.com/ABSTRACT/TOASCJ-6-49</div>
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Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-133493008076734232019-11-02T08:20:00.001-07:002019-11-02T08:20:55.537-07:00Keeping Track of the Latest MJO Event - 31/10/2019A. Location<br />
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B. 1000 hPa Near-Surface Wind Map<br />
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C. 850 hPa Wind Map Showing Possible Eq. Rossby Wave over Cambodia<br />
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<br />Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-19322971384065777032019-11-01T00:21:00.000-07:002019-11-02T19:46:58.988-07:00The Second Red Pill - Seasonal Peak Spring Tides <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<b>Red Pill 2 is large!</b></div>
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<b>But the rewards are great if you manage to get it down!!</b></div>
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<b style="color: #222222; font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;">[Please click on the "RED PILL 1" link if you haven't read this red pill.]</b><br />
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<b><span style="color: red;"><a href="https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/10/the-first-red-pill-how-can-you.html" target="_blank">RED PILL 1</a><span style="background-color: white;"> </span></span></b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="color: #222222;"><b><i>T</i></b></span><b style="color: #222222;"><i>he influence of cycles in the atmospheric lunar tides upon the Earth's atmospheric pressure can be re-inforced (i.e weaponized) if they constructively interfere with the annual seasonal cycle. </i></b></span></div>
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<span style="color: red;"><b>RED PILL 2</b></span> <b><i><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">If the lunisolar atmospheric tides that are associated with the <span style="color: red;">Peak Seasonal Spring Tides</span> play a role in influencing the Earth's atmospheric pressure, you should see variations in this pressure that occur at intervals of 3.8-year (= 1/5th the Metonic Cycle)</span></i></b><b><i><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">. </span></i></b></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"><b>There are four factors that can affect the strength of seasonal peak tides i.e. peaks in the lunisolar tides that align with the seasons:</b></span></div>
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<i><span style="color: red;"><b>1. The proximity of the Earth/Moon system to the Sun. </b></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="color: red;"><b>2. The relative position of the Moon with respect to the Sun i.e. the Moon's phase. </b></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="color: red;"><b>3. The proximity of a New/Full Moon to one of the nodes of the lunar orbit. </b></span></i></div>
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<i><span style="color: red;"><b>4. The proximity of a New/Full Moon to the perigee/apogee of the lunar orbit. </b></span></i></div>
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This large red-pill post will specifically deal with the factors that affect the strength of <span style="color: red;"><b><u>Seasonal Peak Spring Tides</u></b></span> i.e. factors 1 and 2.</div>
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<b><u><span style="background-color: white; color: purple;">GLOSSARY OF IMPORTANT TERMS</span></u></b></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"><b>The synodic month</b></span> = 29.5305889 days. The time required for the Moon to go from one New/Full moon to the next New/Full moon.</div>
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<span style="color: blue;"><b>The tropical year</b></span> = 365.2421897 days. The length of the seasonal year.</div>
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<b>A. <u>The Proximity of the Earth/Moon System to the Sun </u></b> </div>
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Due to the elliptical nature (e = 0.0167) of the Earth's orbit, the distance of the Earth/Moon system from the Sun varies between an aphelion (i.e. furthest distance) of 152.1 million km around July 04th to a perihelion (i.e. closest distance) of 147.1 million km on January 3rd. This means that the strength of lunisolar tidal forces near January 03rd are noticeably enhanced compared to those that are near July 04th. Hence, the effects of any long-term seasonal peak tides upon atmospheric pressure will naturally be enhanced if these peak tides are aligned with the date of perihelion. </div>
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<b>B. <u>The Relative Position of the Moon With Respect to the Sun i.e. the Moon's phase</u></b></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"><b>What are Spring Tides?</b></span></div>
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They are higher than normal tides that occur twice every lunar synodic month (= 29.53 days), whenever the Sun, Earth, and Moon are co-aligned at either <b>New or Full Moon</b>. </div>
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It turns out that 12 1/2 synodic months are 3.890171 days longer than one tropical year (N.B. from this point forward, the word “year” will mean one tropical or seasonal year = 365.2421897 days unless indicated). </div>
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Hence, if a spring tide occurs on a given day of the year, 3.796 years will pass before another spring tide occurs on roughly the same day of the year. </div>
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This is true because 3.796 years is the number of years it takes for, the 3.890171 days per year slippage between 12 1/2 synodic months and the tropical year, to accumulate to half a synodic month of 14.7652944 days.</div>
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In the real world, it turns out that <span style="color: blue;"><b>Spring Tides</b></span> occur on roughly the same day of the year once every:</div>
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3 years<br />
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3 + 4 = 7 years</div>
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3 + 4 + 4 = 11 years</div>
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3 + 4 + 4 + 4 = 15 years</div>
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3 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 years = 19 years</div>
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[N.B. The 3-year spacing can occur at any point in the 19-year Metonic Cycle sequence] </div>
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with the 3:4:4:4:4-year spacing pattern [which has an average spacing of (3 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 4)/5 = 3.8 years], repeating itself after a period of almost exactly 19 years. <span style="color: red;"><b>The 19.0-year period is known as the Metonic cycle.</b></span> This cycle results from the fact that 235 Synodic months = 6939.688381 days = 19.000238 Tropical years. </div>
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Displayed below is a real-life example of one Metonic Cycle between 1996 and 2015. </div>
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YEAR____PHASE____DATE____TIME____GAP IN YEARS<br />
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1996_____FM_______Sept 27____02:51____ 0 years</div>
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1999_____FM_______Sept 25____10:53____ 3 years</div>
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2003_____NM_______Sept 26____03:09____ 3 + 4 years = 7 years</div>
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2007_____FM_______Sept 26____19:47____ 3 + 4 + 4 years = 11 years</div>
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2011_____NM_______Sept 27____11:09____ 3 + 4 + 4 + 4 years = 15 years</div>
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2015_____FM_______Sep 28_____02:52____ 3 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 years = 19 years</div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Hence, If the lunisolar atmospheric tides that are associated with the Peak Seasonal Spring Tides play a role in influencing the Earth's atmospheric pressure, you should see variations in this pressure that occur at 3.8-year (= 1/5th the Metonic Cycle) intervals. </span></div>
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<b><u>References</u>:</b></div>
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Wilson, I.R.G., <i>Lunar Tides and the Long-Term Variation of the Peak Latitude Anomaly of the Summer Sub-Tropical High-Pressure Ridge over Eastern Australia</i>, The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2012, 6, 49-60<br />
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<a href="http://benthamopen.com/ABSTRACT/TOASCJ-6-49">http://benthamopen.com/ABSTRACT/TOASCJ-6-49</a></div>
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Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-2355881034096224852019-10-31T17:10:00.000-07:002019-10-31T22:23:09.626-07:00The First Red Pill - How Can You Weaponize the Lunar Atmospheric Tides When it Comes to Climate?<b style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">As Morpheus so famously said to Thomas Anderson in the movie "The Matrix":</span></b><br />
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<b><i style="background-color: #ffe599;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">"This your last chance. After this, there is no turning back.<span style="color: blue;"> You take the blue pill, the story ends.</span><span style="color: red;"> </span><span style="color: blue;">You wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to.</span><span style="color: red;"> You take the red pill, you stay in Wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes. </span>Remember, all I'm offering is the truth. Nothing more."</span></i></b><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">This is the first of series of multiple posts that offers you the opportunity to</span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span><b style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;">EITHER</b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">, take the</span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span><span style="color: blue; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>blue pill</b></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">and continue to believe what the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) tells you about Australia's climate </span><b style="font-family: Times, "Times New Roman", serif;">OR</b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"> take the</span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span><span style="color: red; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>red pill</b></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"> and open your mind to an alternative reality.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: #9fc5e8;"><b style="font-style: normal;"><span style="color: red;">RED PILL 1</span></b> <b><i>T</i></b></span><b><i><span style="background-color: #9fc5e8;">he influence of cycles in the atmospheric lunar tides upon the Earth's atmospheric pressure can be re-inforced (i.e weaponized) if they constructively interfere with the annual seasonal cycle.</span></i></b></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Q1. How Can You Weaponize the Lunar Atmospheric Tides When it Comes to Climate?</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The most significant large-scale systematic variations of the atmospheric pressure, on an inter-annual to decadal time scale, are those caused by the seasons. These variations are predominantly driven by the change in the level of solar insolation with latitude that is produced by the effects of the Earth's obliquity (i.e. the tilt of its rotation axis with respect to the Earth-Sun plane) and its annual motion around the Sun (i.e. its orbit).<br /><br />This raises an important question: What is the most effective way for cycles in the lunisolar atmospheric tides to influence the Earth's atmospheric pressure, on inter-annual to decadal time scales? <br /><br />One way is that the lunisolar atmospheric tides can act independently of the variations in atmospheric pressure caused by the seasonal changes in the level of solar insolation with latitude. <br /><br />If this was true, you would expect to see long-term periodicities in the atmospheric pressure records that would match periodicities of the most extreme peak lunar tides.<br /><br />An alternative way is that the lunar atmospheric tides could act in "resonance" with (i.e. subordinate to) the atmospheric pressure changes caused by the far more dominant solar-driven seasonal cycles.<br /><br />With this type of simple “resonance” model, it is not so much in what years do the atmospheric lunar tides reach their maximum strength, but whether or not there are peaks in the strength of the lunar atmospheric tides that re-occur at the same time within the annual seasonal cycle.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">So the answer our original question is that, strong peaks in the lunar tidal forces that slowly drift through the seasons, with each advancing year, may not be as effective at influencing the Earth's atmospheric pressure distribution, as weaker tidal peaks that appear at precisely the same time during the seasonal year (hereafter referred to as seasonal peak tides).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">In essence, the influence of cycles in the atmospheric lunar tides upon the Earth's atmospheric can be re-inforced (i.e weaponized) if they constructively interfere with the annual seasonal cycles.</span><br />
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Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-75721009979614932772019-10-27T07:24:00.000-07:002019-10-27T07:24:20.652-07:00Keeping Track of the Latest MJO Event - Update 25/10/2019A. Location<br />
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B. 1000 hPa Near-Surface Wind Map</div>
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C. 850 hPa - Wind Map Showing Embedded Equatorial Rossby Wave in MJO<br />
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Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-14650742851739403132019-10-21T00:04:00.000-07:002019-10-21T09:53:52.949-07:00Keeping Track of the Current Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) Event19/10/2019 06 UT<br />
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A. Location<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsLeu4Rxvsdj46D-dw7cDV4ZB3YeViED_pgEP_Ko9k9q5QCttom2gyqCTOM_SQXVEy9XH4fjpnRJHXDgM3EBDeqBR1tqFaLZxo4Bgvbw3UnFKXUIYlIwTjyUO7T7I8oIIyD-VyzoZIXP2y/s1600/MJO_19_10_2019.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="555" data-original-width="1159" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsLeu4Rxvsdj46D-dw7cDV4ZB3YeViED_pgEP_Ko9k9q5QCttom2gyqCTOM_SQXVEy9XH4fjpnRJHXDgM3EBDeqBR1tqFaLZxo4Bgvbw3UnFKXUIYlIwTjyUO7T7I8oIIyD-VyzoZIXP2y/s640/MJO_19_10_2019.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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B. 1000 hPa Near-Surface Wind Map<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUKtRPLEALQirEjUifnpMH_jIHBd0RSzHvVwsaM8jdIleNguuLPNSSI0WMiXffgDKsTPi3_tHWfabZwPwHqtRfdcI74nzJGJGJWXHvdYqGzrc3vATHw8u_2RMGzyc7OLMuD2PgFDyP9ixg/s1600/1000hPa_19_10_19.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="675" data-original-width="607" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiUKtRPLEALQirEjUifnpMH_jIHBd0RSzHvVwsaM8jdIleNguuLPNSSI0WMiXffgDKsTPi3_tHWfabZwPwHqtRfdcI74nzJGJGJWXHvdYqGzrc3vATHw8u_2RMGzyc7OLMuD2PgFDyP9ixg/s640/1000hPa_19_10_19.jpg" width="574" /></a></div>
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70 hPa - 18km Altitude Wind Map - Showing an embedded Kelvin Wave in the MJO</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpHhIwIso5LhrNo4YiAjRCIpc_nj2SgEV-aRiWBsnw57z7Od6XeScTiT-Jck7apB3csT_whkPHOaXdH8D16aaxyxKi7_GYMno7y9AjznRHMEL_pvFJhRMsFuFGBImZCxc3sJaCQQ4HG6hy/s1600/70hpa_19_10_19.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="674" data-original-width="633" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpHhIwIso5LhrNo4YiAjRCIpc_nj2SgEV-aRiWBsnw57z7Od6XeScTiT-Jck7apB3csT_whkPHOaXdH8D16aaxyxKi7_GYMno7y9AjznRHMEL_pvFJhRMsFuFGBImZCxc3sJaCQQ4HG6hy/s640/70hpa_19_10_19.jpg" width="600" /></a></div>
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<br />Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-46637314377979443962019-10-15T22:22:00.002-07:002019-10-15T22:22:53.715-07:00Temporary Post on Transits of Venus<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAxhLEAiGYPCSeeWVzASqemxhPSoyFKzXXtlbjtAJhBuyWdvOO5VL3-fJe9K8Kw4PvAaKpFdYIO7OTwhuQ8v-4mF4m8moKm_HanySfNPdoVTf6T9T6fosQsiBDZfmwB4g6g_OckAXuYVzL/s1600/Venus_Transit.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="501" data-original-width="871" height="368" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAxhLEAiGYPCSeeWVzASqemxhPSoyFKzXXtlbjtAJhBuyWdvOO5VL3-fJe9K8Kw4PvAaKpFdYIO7OTwhuQ8v-4mF4m8moKm_HanySfNPdoVTf6T9T6fosQsiBDZfmwB4g6g_OckAXuYVzL/s640/Venus_Transit.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-71574565440352859672019-10-08T06:05:00.000-07:002019-10-08T06:05:30.702-07:00 A Luni-Solar Connection to Weather and Climate III: Sub-Centennial Time Scales<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #101010; font-family: "PT Serif", serif; font-size: 16.28px; margin-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Wilson, I.R.G. and Sidorenkov, N.S., 2019, A Luni-Solar Connection to Weather and Climate III: Sub-Centennial Time Scales, The General Science Journal, 7927</div>
<div style="background-color: white; border: 0px; color: #101010; font-family: "PT Serif", serif; margin-bottom: 1em; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<a href="https://www.gsjournal.net/Science-Journals/Research%20Papers-Astrophysics/Download/7927" target="_blank">https://www.gsjournal.net/Science-Journals/Research%20Papers-Astrophysics/Download/7927</a></div>
The following figure shows the raw HadCRUT4 monthly (Land + Sea) world mean temperature anomaly (WMTA) data from 1850 to 2017 (grey line – Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 2017).<br />
<br />
<a href="https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/">https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/</a><br />
<br />
Following the method used by Copeland and Watts (2009), a Hodrick Prescott filter (Hodrick and Prescott 1981 - using λ = 129,0000) is applied to the raw WMTA data to produce a smoothed temperature anomaly curve (Excel Plugin 2019). The resulting smoothed anomaly curve is superimposed upon the raw WMTA data in the figure below (red line).<br />
<br />
The Hodrick Prescott filter is designed to separate a time-series data into a trend component and a cyclical component using a technique that is equivalent to a cubic spline smoother. It acts as a low-pass filter that smooths out short-term temperature fluctuations, leaving behind the unattenuated long-term oscillatory signals (Copland and Watts 2009). Given the specific value of λ used here, this effectively translates to a band-pass that eliminates all the oscillatory temperature signals that have periods ≤ 7.0 years (Copland and Watts 2009).<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> </span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> Investigations of climate change generally
involve the study of "forcings" upon the climate system. These are
expressed in power terms that are measured in W m<sup>-2</sup>. This means that
the best way to study temporal changes in these "forcings" is to look
at time series of the first differences in the total energies that are
associated with each forcing. Similarly, the mean temperature of the Earth's
atmosphere is a measure of its total energy content. Thus, the best way to
study the changes in the climate "forcings" that impact the mean
temperature of the Earth's atmosphere is to</span><span lang="EN"> </span><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">look
at time-series of the first difference in world-mean temperature, rather than
time-series of the temperature itself [Goodman 2013].</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;"> <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm;">
<span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> Following this train of logic, the first
difference curve of the smoothed trend component of the WMTA time series is
calculated in degrees Celsius per month. The resultant first difference curve
(multiplied by an arbitrary factor of 150) is plotted in the figure below (blue
curve). Superimposed upon this is the raw temperature anomaly data (light-grey
curve) and the smoothed trend component (red curve), displayed in units of
degrees Celsius.</span><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikrBm2T4dyEVZTOpBOvFLopDt2L9vdAyGOFq_lRYMu9UXmtXVetMX4g71Upcgh_oGgxdtXTunpZvyfSGvpdae6Z5KNEv9pZ1-94gJ84zkPYk7tO5TtTY7WY24HR5aOdbu5EeHDQPrv-U6K/s1600/Delta_Temp.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="405" data-original-width="556" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikrBm2T4dyEVZTOpBOvFLopDt2L9vdAyGOFq_lRYMu9UXmtXVetMX4g71Upcgh_oGgxdtXTunpZvyfSGvpdae6Z5KNEv9pZ1-94gJ84zkPYk7tO5TtTY7WY24HR5aOdbu5EeHDQPrv-U6K/s640/Delta_Temp.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">The
blue dashed curve in the figure below shows a superposition of a sine wave of
amplitude 1.0 unit and period 9.1 tropical years with a sine wave of amplitude
2.0 units and period 10.1469 (= 9 FMC’s) tropical years. Note that the units
used are degrees Celsius per month times 1000. The actual function used in this figure is:</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4F8gZBxV3fn4MPY2n3Q06zTjdEBOl3ICiTEVWczF1Cmp42fQTDKGYUTj6RUgULiiAyYNvx2jwb4EV02LGoO6n1XmFghV14ysjoe5ZkenKqI1sBgW_hGFGLl1vfRx_iWLIodNzVBNtUlX1/s1600/Delta_Temp_eq.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="72" data-original-width="635" height="72" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi4F8gZBxV3fn4MPY2n3Q06zTjdEBOl3ICiTEVWczF1Cmp42fQTDKGYUTj6RUgULiiAyYNvx2jwb4EV02LGoO6n1XmFghV14ysjoe5ZkenKqI1sBgW_hGFGLl1vfRx_iWLIodNzVBNtUlX1/s640/Delta_Temp_eq.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<v:f eqn="sum @0 0 1"/>
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<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">where
t is the date expressed in decimal Gregorian years [N.B. For the purposes of
this study, this curve will be </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">referred
to as the lunar tidal forcing curve – i.e. <b>LTF </b>curve].</span><span style="background: white; font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Overlaying this is a red curve which is simply a reproduction of the difference plot of the smoothed
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" strokecolor="black [3213]" strokeweight="2.25pt">
<v:stroke dashstyle="longDash" joinstyle="miter"/>
</v:line><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><span style="height: 553px; margin-left: 721px; margin-top: 47px; mso-ignore: vglayout; position: absolute; width: 4px; z-index: 251659264;"><img height="553" src="file:///C:/Users/NINDER~1/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtmlclip1/01/clip_image003.png" v:shapes="Straight_x0020_Connector_x0020_7" width="4" /></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> from the
earlier figure [N.B. For the purposes of this study, this curve will be referred
to as the difference of the smoothed temperature anomaly curve – i.e. <b>DSTA</b>.
It has units measured in degrees Celsius per month. In addition, the DSTA curve
values have been scaled-up by a factor of 1000 to roughly match the variance of
the LTF curve. This is done to aid the comparison between these two curves.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKgNr5u5LkVoQUDHEZNUGBevp-Hlf6ReeEGnUJZEAGYsglitRq1_uEZtNWsuHXQ4atuXayK-uE03NDN6atFlkRB1fjq2eQc4MOBbUHQQBG3FQGHWPyxnm0Qxcer_28J-pQPjxua6Cg1HiG/s1600/Delta_Temp_model.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="400" data-original-width="551" height="464" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgKgNr5u5LkVoQUDHEZNUGBevp-Hlf6ReeEGnUJZEAGYsglitRq1_uEZtNWsuHXQ4atuXayK-uE03NDN6atFlkRB1fjq2eQc4MOBbUHQQBG3FQGHWPyxnm0Qxcer_28J-pQPjxua6Cg1HiG/s640/Delta_Temp_model.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> A comparison of the DSTA and LTF curves shows
that that the timing of the peaks in the LTF curve closely match those seen in
the DSTA curve for two 45-year periods. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> The first going from 1865 to 1910 and
the second from 1955 to 2000. Note that these years are delineated by the black
vertical lines in this figure. During these two epochs, the aligned peaks of the
LTF and the DSTA curves are separated from adjacent peaks by roughly the 9.6
years, which is close to the mean of 9.1 and 10.1469 years. This is in stark
contrast to the 45-year period separating these two epochs (i.e. from 1910 to
1955), and the period after the year 2000, where the close match between the
timing of the peaks in LTF and DSTA curves breaks down, with the DSTA peaks
becoming separated from their neighboring peaks by approximately 20 years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"> Hence, the variations in the <b>rate of change</b> of the smoothed HadCRUT4
temperature anomalies closely follow a “forcing” curve that is formed by the
simple sum of two sinusoids, one with a 9.1-year period which matches that of
the lunar tidal cycle, and the other with a period of </span><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">10.1469-year
that matches that of half the Perigean New/Full moon cycle. This is precisely
what you would expect if the natural periodicities associated with the Perigean
New/Full moon tidal cycles were driving the observed changes in the world mean
temperature on decadal time scales.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;">References:</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Copeland, B. and
Watts, A., <b>2009</b>, <i>Evidence
of a Luni-Solar Influence on the Decadal and Bi-decadal Oscillations in
Globally Averaged Temperature Trends</i>, retrieved at:<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><br /></span></div>
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</span></div>
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<span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><a href="http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/23/evidence-of-a-lunisolar-influence-on-decadal-and-bidecadal-oscillations-in-globally-averaged-temperature-trends/">http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/23/evidence-of-a-lunisolar-influence-on-decadal-and-bidecadal-oscillations-in-globally-averaged-temperature-trends/<o:p></o:p></a></span></div>
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<span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Ref: </span><a href="https://climategrog.wordpress.com/2013/03/01/61/"><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">https://climategrog.wordpress.com/2013/03/01/61/</span></a><span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-layout-grid-align: none; text-autospace: none;">
<span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; font-size: 12pt; line-height: 115%;">Lunar-Solar Influence on SST March 1<sup>st</sup>, <b>2013</b>,
Greg Goodman<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span lang="EN" style="font-family: "Times New Roman",serif; font-size: 12.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN;">Hodrick, R.
Prescott, E., <b>1997</b>, <i>Postwar US
business cycles: an empirical investigation.
Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking.</i> 29(1): pp. 1-16. Reprint of
University of Minneapolis discussion paper 451, 1981.</span></div>
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<br />Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-67372455721177565912019-10-03T09:33:00.000-07:002019-10-03T09:33:00.843-07:00Are the Strongest Lunar Perigean Spring Tides Commensurate with the Transit Cycle of Venus?<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The following graph inspired my 2014 paper entitled:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><b style="color: #222222;">Wilson, I.R.G.</b><span style="color: #222222;"> </span><i style="color: #222222;">Are the Strongest Lunar Perigean Spring Tides Commensurate with the Transit Cycle of Venus?, </i><span style="color: #222222; line-height: 17px;"> </span><span style="color: #222222; line-height: 17px;">Pattern Recogn. Phys., 2, 75-93</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; line-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Received: 25/Jul/2014 - Revised: 10/Sep/2014 - Accepted: 18/Sep/2014 - Published: 28/Nov/2014 </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: times, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: times, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 13.2px; line-height: 17px;"><span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: small;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It was accepted for publication in the second volume of the Journal Pattern Recognition in Physics (PRP) on the 18th of November 2014. The publishers of the PRP, Copernicus Publications, decided to close the journal in 2014, despite having accepted my paper for publication. It temporarily appeared on-line (i.e. was published) and then removed. In protest, I refused to pay the publication fee until they put my paper back up on-line. They never did. I didn't realize that a publisher could accept a paper for publication, publish it and then remove it from publication, without giving any rational reason for their actions.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">This graph shows the remarkable alignment between the dates for the transits of Venus over a 700-year period between 1600 and 2300 A.D. and the repetition pattern for the most extreme Perigean Spring tides that are closest to the nominal date of the Perihelion of the Earth's orbit. </span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8e8_GyYmWhnMb5SW4RAZ6oTWmPGriWnxoU7zm_ilrZ8vTa3JHAe_Su_YpNoNTzRQdqgbbfRhQ3NTIa17FpJEzNzlMkNOKehwt5jz5EHyfS4DavABRLKra7FboK4iODeApvTYdpKR2-2eD/s1600/Transits.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="640" data-original-width="979" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8e8_GyYmWhnMb5SW4RAZ6oTWmPGriWnxoU7zm_ilrZ8vTa3JHAe_Su_YpNoNTzRQdqgbbfRhQ3NTIa17FpJEzNzlMkNOKehwt5jz5EHyfS4DavABRLKra7FboK4iODeApvTYdpKR2-2eD/s640/Transits.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Abstract:</span></b> </div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">This study identifies the strongest perigean spring tides that reoccur at roughly the same time in the seasonal calendar and shows how their repetition pattern, with respect to the tropical year, is closely synchronized with the 243-year transit cycle of Venus. It finds that whenever the pentagonal pattern for the inferior conjunctions of Venus and the Earth drifts through one of the nodes of Venus’ orbit, the 31/62 year perigean spring tidal cycle simultaneously drifts through almost exactly the same days of the Gregorian year, over a period from 1 to 3000 A.D. Indeed, the drift of the 31/62 year tidal cycle with respect to the Gregorian calendar almost perfectly matches the expected long-term drift between the Gregorian calendar and the tropical year. If the mean drift of the 31/62 perigean spring tidal cycle is corrected for the expected long-term drift between the Gregorian calendar and the tropical year, then the long-term residual drift between: </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">a) the 243-year drift-cycle of the pentagonal pattern for the inferior conjunctions of Venus and the Earth with respect to the nodes of Venus’s orbit and </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">b) the 243-year drift-cycle of the strongest seasonal peak tides on the Earth (i.e. the 31/62 perigean spring tidal cycle) with respect to the tropical year,</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">is approximately equal to -7 ± 11 hours, over the 3000-year period. The large relative error of the final value for the residual drift means that this study cannot rule out the possibility that there is no long-term residual drift between the two cycles i.e. the two cycles are in perfect synchronization over the 3000 year period. However, the most likely result is a long-term residual drift of -7 hours, over the time frame considered.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Keywords: Solar System — Planetary Orbits — Lunar Tides </span></div>
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Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-16519720155869169092019-09-18T09:20:00.001-07:002019-09-27T21:24:16.019-07:00The Easterly Trade Winds Over the Equatorial Pacific Ocean Have Disappeared Over the Last 5 Days or So!UPDATED 22/09/2019 09:25 AEST<br />
FURTHER UPDATED 28/09/2019 14:20 AEST<br />
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If you want to find out why go to the following post:<br />
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<a href="https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/09/tropical-storms-in-equatorial-pacific.html">https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/09/tropical-storms-in-equatorial-pacific.html</a><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkKUdrfXpOq4ckMbvFwGv4IPlKAIkeV1LvPDkqQu4oxtPSBjeZTSWbRFP28pkEAxw_TS-hnlNm4os2RaKGKMLxsKVNQ8zyXKA_tquLq2nOuLitoeECs5KHm-QXJYJqiJhPAXtVeLAO0JkU/s1600/Trade_winds.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="677" data-original-width="1307" height="330" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjkKUdrfXpOq4ckMbvFwGv4IPlKAIkeV1LvPDkqQu4oxtPSBjeZTSWbRFP28pkEAxw_TS-hnlNm4os2RaKGKMLxsKVNQ8zyXKA_tquLq2nOuLitoeECs5KHm-QXJYJqiJhPAXtVeLAO0JkU/s640/Trade_winds.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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UPDATE 22/09/2019<br />
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On the 21 September 00:00 UTC, the equatorial trade winds in the Western Pacific are still dead, as far east as 165W!<br />
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Shown below are the Sea-Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) for the 6th of September 00:00 UTC (on the right) and the 21st September 00:00UTC (on the left).<br />
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Note that warm surface water in the Western Pacific has moved eastward by ~ 3,300 km in 15 days.<br />
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The battle in between the warmer waters in the Western Pacific and the cooler waters in the Eastern Pacific Oceans.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAoXhB9czC3vyT1jSjY13LOI9UZHeUYRqj6ByY_BsYUUhix0qXRzYJW6CAPUUFNxXNRtHRR_gk1BLKAK_oyBILyZgdMJuIOfw9l0h7WdeNJfMgg9SIzcNN1HwRDaAI53b3l04BoujcDEM0/s1600/The_Battle.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="674" data-original-width="1293" height="332" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgAoXhB9czC3vyT1jSjY13LOI9UZHeUYRqj6ByY_BsYUUhix0qXRzYJW6CAPUUFNxXNRtHRR_gk1BLKAK_oyBILyZgdMJuIOfw9l0h7WdeNJfMgg9SIzcNN1HwRDaAI53b3l04BoujcDEM0/s640/The_Battle.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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Update 28/09/2019</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXHRMssLpQRE1buYdbj_eUHGi36hQMmMY4utmxTbk4L8r5TyhhN4VfbuNJq9_PUNT5V2CWef2H8I8VsNEQr-ZDvqIqOqoVjHpsSoVaX0Tk8qwZ-NuHQqexHVmnngAwsB4jhXoQU0ECta9Y/s1600/Battle_Update.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="564" data-original-width="1600" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXHRMssLpQRE1buYdbj_eUHGi36hQMmMY4utmxTbk4L8r5TyhhN4VfbuNJq9_PUNT5V2CWef2H8I8VsNEQr-ZDvqIqOqoVjHpsSoVaX0Tk8qwZ-NuHQqexHVmnngAwsB4jhXoQU0ECta9Y/s640/Battle_Update.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-14666697818839130502019-09-17T06:56:00.000-07:002019-09-17T06:58:11.603-07:00Tropical Storms in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean are being triggered by the passage of Kelvin Waves<span style="background-color: white; font-family: "poppins" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><b></b></span><br />
<i><span style="color: red;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white;"> <b>N.B. If</b></span></span><b><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"> our claim </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">is correct </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">that Equatorial Kelvin Waves (EKWs) are being generated by the interaction between maxima in the lunar atmospheric/oceanic tides with minima in the diurnal sea-level pressure variations in the tropics (please read):</span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span></b></span></i><br />
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<b><a href="https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/09/a-lunar-tidal-mechanism-for-generating.html">https://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/09/a-lunar-tidal-mechanism-for-generating.html</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"> </span></b><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><i><span style="color: red;">t</span></i></b><span style="color: red;"><i><b>hen this post implies that the lunar tides must play a crucial role in initiating the Westerly Wind Bursts (WWBs) in the western equatorial Pacific ocean that are directly responsible for weakening the easterly equatorial trade winds that help trigger El Nino events.</b></i></span></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: black; color: white; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">****************</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">If you visit Kyle MacRitchie's excellent blog site on Tropical waves at:</span><br />
<b><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></b>
<a href="https://www.kylemacritchie.com/learn-about-tropical-waves/"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">https://www.kylemacritchie.com/learn-about-tropical-waves/</span></a><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">he states that convectively decoupled Equatorial Kelvin Waves (EKWs) can have outflows from their convection zones that cause Equatorial Rossby Wave (ERWs) trains to develop in their wake. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">He indicates that these ERWs aren't as strong as those created by MJOs since EKWs generally move </span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">from west-to-east </span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">along the Earth' equator </span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">at 3 to 4 times rate of Madden Julian Oscillations (MJOs). </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">In addition, MacRitchie states that </span><span style="background-color: white; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">Kelvin waves provide favorable conditions for the development of Tropical Cyclones i.e. intense convection, low-level vorticity (in the form of trailing ERWs), vertical shear, and mid-level moisture.</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: #222222; color: #d5d5d5;"><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">****************</span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">I light of this, we present a report on the passage of a</span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"> convectively-decoupled Kelvin Wave across the Equatorial Pacific Ocean, </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">over the last several days, </span></span><span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">that has set off a series of weak tropical storms and possibly one Hurricane.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">The following plot shows the location of MJOs in the equatorial regions of the Indo-Pacific (as represented by the MJO phase - vertical axis) for times between May 15th and September 15th, 2019 (horizontal axis).</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">This plot showed that the most recent MJO event:</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">a) started off the east coast of equatorial Africa (MJO Phase 1) around the 17th of August, </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">b) reached the region on the Equator between the Philippines and New Guinea (MJO phase 5), around about the 4th -- 5th of September, where it started producing</span> Westerly Wind Bursts (WWBs) to the north of Papua New Guinea.<br />
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c) generated a <span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;">convectively decoupled Kelvin wave, most likely around September 8th, that began moving out across the equatorial Pacific Ocean at a speed of roughly 1350 km/day, reaching the coast of South America roughly 9 -- 10 days later. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdEuyw5Ki4cxpUjjzwmOvog5lSDwkvGLBqxwwAndhjwsh2QNho4r1mmyuhn8U9_T96ubNPyP-8YES710-ScCQe8MWVqhtySWlsVGGkEsxCubtgAd8F5nNszH7mhNZ8fUc-3QA1eHlF-QCB/s1600/MJO_15_05_15_09_19.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="639" data-original-width="977" height="418" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdEuyw5Ki4cxpUjjzwmOvog5lSDwkvGLBqxwwAndhjwsh2QNho4r1mmyuhn8U9_T96ubNPyP-8YES710-ScCQe8MWVqhtySWlsVGGkEsxCubtgAd8F5nNszH7mhNZ8fUc-3QA1eHlF-QCB/s640/MJO_15_05_15_09_19.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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The following weather map shows that the passage of the convectively decoupled Kelvin wave (between September 8th to 17th) generated at least 5 weak topical tropical storms and possibly one hurricane, straddling the Earth's equator at roughly 15 degrees north latitude.<br />
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Ref: <a href="https://www.blogger.com/(https://earth.nullschool.net/)" style="font-family: times, "times new roman", serif; font-size: 13.2px;" target="_blank">(https://earth.nullschool.net/)</a><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdEYoABL_-jE5sq-Hc5D_N_gp2Zhmgpy73SD9lPHrsz3PTVkAGpVb17M6fY4uTt_YvFwxTzCXg0qi5zlFmddHhNl_j5tXUTuXAbOLMAVLthM79tdNJ_2miDw4IF4t8LcwYNQM6OaY9Z8HA/s1600/Sept_2019.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="679" data-original-width="823" height="528" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhdEYoABL_-jE5sq-Hc5D_N_gp2Zhmgpy73SD9lPHrsz3PTVkAGpVb17M6fY4uTt_YvFwxTzCXg0qi5zlFmddHhNl_j5tXUTuXAbOLMAVLthM79tdNJ_2miDw4IF4t8LcwYNQM6OaY9Z8HA/s640/Sept_2019.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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The following plots show that:</div>
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1) the MJO event produces WWBs in the western equatorial Pacific ocean between the 8th and 11th of September.</div>
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2) the convectively de-coupled EKW that emerges from the MJO event (sometime after September 8th) starts to move across the equatorial Pacific ocean leaving a series of weak tropical storms in its wake (starting on September 13th), straddling the Earth's equator at roughly 15 degrees North latitude.</div>
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3) the cumulative westerly wind flows that are produced on the southern sides of this string of tropical storms effectively eliminates the easterly equatorial trade winds as far east as the mid-Pacific ocean, at 160 degrees West longitude (N.B. the red vertical line on the Equator marks the most easterly longitude of the stalled trade winds for that date).</div>
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All it would take is a series of vigorous EKWs like this one to trigger a major El Nino event, showing that <span style="font-family: "times" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: white;">the lunar atmospheric/oceanic tides must play a role in initiating these significant climate events. </span></span></div>
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8th Sept</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2ta5FCRRYCmE04j18ivxwKWikrmC2K7hE6GsQ5EtQwdrA1uWdtURSaSzmRL2F-pgWTQ8OHaKCyG0DydlNxQcd-n6VlXZLhZm0bEFXHRMb2n_uEYc-8O15oowW5nYZDOXnHGNPZ1H_EWFv/s1600/Sept_08.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="684" data-original-width="855" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2ta5FCRRYCmE04j18ivxwKWikrmC2K7hE6GsQ5EtQwdrA1uWdtURSaSzmRL2F-pgWTQ8OHaKCyG0DydlNxQcd-n6VlXZLhZm0bEFXHRMb2n_uEYc-8O15oowW5nYZDOXnHGNPZ1H_EWFv/s400/Sept_08.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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9th Sept</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiE0ilpNv-QdnqhhXPbx0kvADsfQpKG9610cg2PV-8fNawIltkU3JOYbBSEe7cEqeLpLKQpgVdnIxoIWnMvYKn-uSFUIb6K_37IIEntatTht654d99xIONDc8VyyhL8_D9R7DXDNdGKtmT/s1600/Sept_09.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="676" data-original-width="822" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhiE0ilpNv-QdnqhhXPbx0kvADsfQpKG9610cg2PV-8fNawIltkU3JOYbBSEe7cEqeLpLKQpgVdnIxoIWnMvYKn-uSFUIb6K_37IIEntatTht654d99xIONDc8VyyhL8_D9R7DXDNdGKtmT/s400/Sept_09.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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10th Sept</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjS_FGIgnOf3C_ueLulhe4fZNGaJ4ZUbcubvtKd_PgGKFBzcw1kzZOXQBvLg8cIJ1RAIA2-_7XLhEb6xAC57HoKFO9C__zskYz1hF6t7N_9l9k3SQxnMwwKANcI_0Bo7WgwGg3VSsJwBGT2/s1600/Sept_10.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="682" data-original-width="806" height="337" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjS_FGIgnOf3C_ueLulhe4fZNGaJ4ZUbcubvtKd_PgGKFBzcw1kzZOXQBvLg8cIJ1RAIA2-_7XLhEb6xAC57HoKFO9C__zskYz1hF6t7N_9l9k3SQxnMwwKANcI_0Bo7WgwGg3VSsJwBGT2/s400/Sept_10.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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11th Sept</div>
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12th Sept</div>
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<br />Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-78280308150128306862019-09-06T07:55:00.001-07:002019-09-07T01:24:35.100-07:00A lunar tidal mechanism for generating Equatorial Kelvin waves<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
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To find out more details about the lunar tidal mechanism that could generate Equatorial Kelvin waves, please read the following post.</div>
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<b style="background-color: white; text-align: center;"><span style="color: red;">Please click on the diagram below to activate the GIF animation</span></b></div>
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If you were to observe the Moon from a fixed point on the Equator at the same time each day, you would notice that the sub-lunar point on the Earth's surface appears to move at a speed of 15 — 20 m/sec from west-to-east. This results from the fact that the west-to-east speed of the Moon along the Ecliptic (as seen from the Earth’s center) varies between 15.2 — 19.8 m/sec. </div>
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Interestingly, the west-to-east group (and phase) velocity for the convectively-decoupled Equatorial Kelvin wave (EKW) is 15 — 20 m/sec, as well. This remarkable "coincidence" raises the question:<br />
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<i><b><span style="color: red;">Could it be that easterly moving convectively-decoupled EKW are produced by the interaction between the day-to-day movement of the lunar-induced atmospheric/oceanic tides with a meteorological phenomenon that routinely occurs at roughly the same time each (24 hr) solar day? </span></b></i><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "pt serif" , serif; font-size: 16.28px;">One meteorological phenomenon that fits this bill is the atmospheric surface pressure variations measured at any given fixed location in the tropics. At many points near the equator, the atmospheric surface pressure spends much of its time sinusoidally oscillating about its long-term mean with an amplitude of 1 to 2 hPa (or millibars). Generally, this regular daily oscillation is only disrupted by the passage of a tropical low-pressure cell (e.g. tropical lows, tropical storms, and Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones).</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "pt serif" , serif; font-size: 16.28px;">For example, figure 1 shows the diurnal surface pressure variations in the Carribean as measured by Haurwitz (1947). What this figure indicates is that, like many points near the Earth's equator, the atmospheric surface pressure reaches a minimum near 4:00 -- 4:30 a.m. and 4:00 -- 4:30 p.m.</span></div>
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Figure 1</div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRdX7IG5UuhVNYrujr20JbEkvMUY6u3Ic7TVd1WsKDwpuWIl22yWdFWUnUxKAhQR-CaICbbykSMtERKUcU1VOVGhRH0CpNWva_I9IMPPqyQ4A37_zx4YBdNZZ2eCViiA8Y4MV79NhJsXJo/s1600/Caribbean_Diurnal_Pressure.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="669" data-original-width="932" height="458" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRdX7IG5UuhVNYrujr20JbEkvMUY6u3Ic7TVd1WsKDwpuWIl22yWdFWUnUxKAhQR-CaICbbykSMtERKUcU1VOVGhRH0CpNWva_I9IMPPqyQ4A37_zx4YBdNZZ2eCViiA8Y4MV79NhJsXJo/s640/Caribbean_Diurnal_Pressure.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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Source; Figure 1 of Haurwitz B., 1947, <i>Harmonic Analysis of the Diurnal Variations of Pressure and Temperature Aloft in the Eastern Caribbean</i>, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 28, pp. 319-323. </div>
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<span style="color: #101010; font-family: "pt serif" , serif; font-size: 16.28px;">This leads us to propose the hypothesis that:</span></div>
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<span style="color: blue;"><span style="font-weight: bold;"><u>Hypothesis</u></span><b>:</b> </span></div>
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<i><b><span style="color: blue;">EKWs are generated when the peak in the lunar-induced tides passes through the local meridian at roughly 4:00 a.m. and 4:00 p.m. local time, when the diurnal surface pressure is a minimum. This type of lunar tidal event takes place once every half synodic month = 14.77 days.</span></b></i></div>
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<span style="color: #101010; font-family: "pt serif" , serif; font-size: 16.28px;"><b>Some important points to note</b>:</span><br />
<span style="color: #101010; font-family: "pt serif" , serif; font-size: 16.28px;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "pt serif" , serif; font-size: 16.28px;"></span><b style="color: red; font-family: "pt serif", serif; font-size: 16.28px;">*</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "pt serif" , serif; font-size: 16.28px;"> The lunar-induced tidal peak in the atmosphere and oceans passes through the local meridian (during its daily passage from west-to-east) both when the Moon is passing through the meridian, and when the Moon is passing through the anti-meridian. This is due to the semi-diurnal nature of the tides.</span><br />
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<span style="color: red; font-family: "pt serif" , serif; font-size: 16.28px; font-weight: bold;">**</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "pt serif" , serif; font-size: 16.28px;"> If you select times when the Moon passes through the local meridian at a fixed time (e.g. 4:00 p.m. or 4:00 a.m.), you are in fact selecting times when the Moon is at a specific phase (or a fixed point in the Synodic month). Hence, when the Moon is passing through the meridian at 4:00 p.m., the Moon has a Waxing Crescent phase (</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "pt serif" , serif; font-size: 16.28px;">~33.3 %</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "pt serif" , serif; font-size: 16.28px;">), and when the Moon is passing through the local anti-meridian at 4:00 p.m. it has a Waning Gibbous phase (</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "pt serif" , serif; font-size: 16.28px;">~33.3 %</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "pt serif" , serif; font-size: 16.28px;">).</span></div>
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The following diagram shows a view of the Earth (fawn-colored circle) as seen from above the North Pole, in a frame-of-reference that is fixed with respect to the Sun. In this frame-of-reference, the Earth rotates and the Moon revolves in a clockwise direction. Included in this diagram is a light blue elliptical annulus that represents the sea-level atmospheric pressure at the Earth's equator. This ellipse highlights the fact that the sea-level atmospheric pressure is typically a minimum at 4 a.m. and 4 p.m., and a maximum at 10 a.m. and 10 p.m. In addition, there is a dark blue elliptical annulus that represents the lunar-induced tides in the Earth's atmosphere and oceans. </div>
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If you click on the gif animation you will see the lunar-induced tidal peak at 4.00 a.m. (4.00 p.m.) move to 4.00 p.m. (4.00 a.m.) over a 14.77 day period, where it induces an atmospheric Kelvin wave that travels along the Earth's equator from west-to-east at a speed of 15 -- 20 m/sec. Then you will see the whole process repeat itself when the lunar-induced tidal peak at 4.00 p.m. (4.00 a.m.) moves to 4.00 a.m. (4.00 p.m.) over the remaining 14.77 days of the lunar Synodic cycle. </div>
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<b style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: red;">Please click on the diagram below to activate the GIF animation</span></b></div>
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<br />Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.com2