Monday, November 12, 2018

Predicting the Start of the Next El Niño Event.

I predict that the next moderate to strong El Niño event should start
in mid-to-late 2019 
UPDATED 14/11/2018

                           31-Year Perigean New/Full Moon Epoch 6: 1994 to 2025
El Nino events start when the strongest Perigean New/Full Moons are crossing the Earth's Equator.




                                     31-Year Perigean New/Full Moon Epoch 5: 1963 to 1994
El Nino events start when the strongest Perigean New/Full Moons are near lunar standstill.


[For details on these graphs see below]

In a series of blog posts in November 2014:

http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2014/11/evidence-that-strong-el-nino-events-are_13.html

I showed that between 1870 and 2025, the precise alignments between the lunar synodic [phase] cycle and the 31/62 year Perigean New/Full moon cycle, naturally breaks up into six 31-year epochs each of which has a distinctly different tidal property. Note that the second of these 31-year intervals starts with the precise alignment on the 15th of April 1870, with the subsequent epoch boundaries occurring every 31 years after that:

Epoch 1 - Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 3 - 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 5 - 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994
Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025


I claimed that if the 31/62-year seasonal tidal cycle plays a role in sequencing the triggering of El Niñevents, it would be reasonable to expect that its effects for the following three epochs:


New Moon Epoch:
Epoch 1 - Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 3 - 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 5 - 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994


should be noticeably different to its effects for these three epochs:

Full Moon Epochs:
Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025

In addition, I showed that:


Moderate-to-strong El Niño events in the New Moon epochs preferentially occur near times when the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the Sun at the times of the Solstices. Note that this is equivalent to saying that moderate to strong El Niño in New Moon Epochs preferentially occur near times the strongest Perigean New/Full moons are near lunar standstill.

Moderate-to-strong El Niño events in the Full Moon epochs preferentially occur near times when the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the Sun at the times of the Equinoxes. Note that this is equivalent to saying that moderate to strong El Niño in Full Moon Epochs preferentially occur near times the strongest Perigean New/Full moons are crossing the Earth's equator.



Firstly, the following graph shows the astronomical declination of the strongest Perigean New/Full moon between 1962 and 1997 (solid blue line)(1). These are the strongest lunar tidal events during the 5th (New moon) Epoch that spans the period between the 23rd of April 1963 and the 25th of April 1994. The declinations of strongest Perigean New/Full moons reach their maximum distance from the Celestial Equator once every 4.425 (= 8.850 / 2) tropical years, as a result of the slow prograde precession of the lunar line-of-apse with respect to the stars.

Secondly, the graph shows the declination at which the Moon reaches lunar standstill near the times of the strongest Perigean New/Full moon events (dashed red lines).

Finally, the graph shows the months that are associated with moderate-to-strong El Nino events between 1962 and 1996 [histograms]. These months have been determined by Smith and Sardeshmukh [2000] (2) using a Bivariate ENSO Time Series (BEST) index that effectively combines the atmospheric component of the ENSO (i.e. the SOI index) with the oceanic component (i.e Nino 3.4 SST anomaly index). [Note that the less stringent list of El Nino months from Smith and Sardeshmukh (2000) are adopted here. The less stringent list uses 0.96 standard deviation cut-off rather than 1.28 (3),(4)]


A comparison between the timing of El Niño months and the times at which the strongest Perigean New/Full moons approach lunar standstill, clearly show close alignments for eight out of ten of the moderate-to-strong El Niño events. This is in agreement with the findings of my earlier 2014 blog post regarding New Moon Epochs. 

[N.B. The two moderate El Niño events in 1963/64 and 1993 that do not follow this pattern, occur right near the boundaries of New Moon Epoch 5 where a transition is being made between New and Full Moon Epochs. These two El Nino events appear to be part of the sequences associated with the Full Moon Epochs (i.e. epoch 4 and 6) which occur when the strongest Perigean New/Full moon events are close to the Celestial Equator.]

Firstly, the next graph shows the astronomical declination of the strongest Perigean New/Full moon between 1992 and 2026 (solid blue line)(1). These are the strongest lunar tidal events during the 6th (Full moon) Epoch that spans the period between the 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025.

Secondly, the graph shows the declination at which the Moon reaches lunar standstill near the times of the strongest Perigean New/Full moon events (dashed red lines).

Finally, the graph shows the months that are associated with moderate-to-strong El Niño events between 1992 and 2018 [histograms]. These months have been determined by Smith and Sardeshmukh [2000] (2) using a Bivariate ENSO Time Series (BEST) index that effectively combines the atmospheric component of the ENSO (i.e. the SOI index) with the oceanic component (i.e Niño 3.4 SST anomaly index). [Note that the less stringent list of El Nino months from Smith and Sardeshmukh (2000) are adopted here. The less stringent list uses 0.96 standard deviation cut-off rather than 1.28 (3),(4)]


A comparison between the timing of El Niño months and the times at which the strongest Perigean New/Full moons cross the Earth's Equator, clearly show close alignments for six out of eight of the moderate-to-strong El Niño events. Again, this is in agreement with the findings of my earlier 2014 blog post regarding Full Moon Epochs. 

[N.B. Most of the moderate El Niño events that do not follow the Full Moon Epoch pattern, such as that in 1994/95, occur near the boundaries between  New Moon and Full Moon Epochs [in this case Epochs 5 and 6]. The other exception to the rule in Epoch 6 in the El Niño event in 2004/05 which appears to be a temporary re-emergence of the Epoch 5  El Niño sequence.]

The Epoch 6 graph indicates that the next  El Niño event should start sometime around the mid-to-late-2019. Though it has to be admitted that there is some uncertainty associated with the precise timing of this prediction. 

References:

[1] JPL Horizons Web Interface Ephemeris - https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi#top - last accessed 14/10/2018


[2] Smith, C.A. and P. Sardeshmukh, 2000, The Effect of ENSO on the Intraseasonal Variance of Surface Temperature in WinterInternational J. of Climatology20 1543-1557.


[3] http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/cathy.smith/best/
[4] http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/cathy.smith/best/table33.txt 


Saturday, October 13, 2018

A Case of Severe Cognitive Dissonance?



[For details on the graph see below]

Cognitive Dissonance: When a person or a group of people have attitudes, beliefs or behaviors that are in conflict with each other. Generally, this produces a feeling of mental discomfort that leads to an alteration in their attitudes, beliefs or behaviors that moderates their mental discomfort and restores balance.

I believe that the level of cognitive dissonance that we have about the influence of lunar tides upon El Nino events has become so large that something has to give.

In a series of blog posts in November 2014:

http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2014/11/evidence-that-strong-el-nino-events-are_13.html

I showed that between 1870 and 2025, the precise alignments between the lunar synodic [phase] cycle and the 31/62 year Perigean New/Full moon cycle, naturally breaks up into six 31-year epochs each of which has a distinctly different tidal property. Note that the second of these 31-year intervals starts with the precise alignment on the 15th of April 1870, with the subsequent epoch boundaries occurring every 31 years after that:

Epoch 1 - Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 3 - 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 5 - 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994
Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025


I claimed that if the 31/62-year seasonal tidal cycle plays a role in sequencing the triggering of El Niñevents, it would be reasonable to expect that its effects for the following three epochs:

New Moon Epoch:
Epoch 1 - Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 3 - 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 5 - 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994

should be noticeably different to its effects for these three epochs:

Full Moon Epochs:
Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025


In addition, I showed that:

Moderate-to-strong El Niño events in the New Moon epochs preferentially occur near times when the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the Sun at the times of the Solstices.

Moderate-to-strong El Niño events in the Full Moon epochs preferentially occur near times when the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the Sun at the times of the Equinoxes.

Astonishingly, there has been almost no response from the climate science community concerning these important findings. 

This terrible state of affairs persists even though there is overwhelming evidence that the Perigean New/Full tidal cycle must play a role in instigating moderate-to-strong El Nino events. 

The following graph shows the astronomical declination of the strongest Perigean New/Full Moon between 1962 and 1997 (solid blue line)(1). These are the strongest lunar tidal events during the 5th (New moon) Epoch that spans the period between the 23rd of April 1963 and the 25th of April 1994. The declinations of strongest Perigean New/Full Moons reach their maximum distance from the Celestial Equator once every 4.425 (= 8.850 / 2) tropical years, as a result of the slow prograde precession of the lunar line-of-apse with respect to the stars.

In addition, the graph shows the declination at which the Moon reaches lunar standstill near the times of the strongest Perigean New/Full moon events (dashed red lines).

Finally, the following graph shows the months that are associated with moderate-to-strong El Nino events between 1962 and 1996 [histograms]. These months have been determined by Smith and Sardeshmukh [2000] (2) using a Bivariate ENSO Time Series (BEST) index that effectively combines the atmospheric component of the ENSO (i.e. the SOI index) with the oceanic component (i.e Nino 3.4 SST anomaly index). [Note that the less stringent list of El Nino months from Smith and Sardeshmukh (2000) are adopted here. The less stringent list uses 0.96 standard deviation cut-off rather than 1.28 (3),(4)]




A comparison between the timing of El Nino months and the times at which the strongest Perigean New/Full Moons approach lunar standstill, clearly show close alignments for eight out of ten of the moderate-to-strong El Nino events. 

[N.B. The two moderate El Nino events in 1963/64 and 1993 that do not follow this pattern occur right near the boundaries of New Moon Epoch 5 where a transitioning is being made between New and Full Moon epochs. These two El Nino events appear to be part of the sequences associated with the Full Moon epochs (i.e. epoch 4 and 6) which occur when the strongest Perigean New/Full Moon events are close to the Celestial Equator.]   

It is absolutely amazing that the climate community is ignoring such clearcut evidence in favour of the hypothesis that the 31/62-year Perigean New/Full moon tidal cycle is the trigger for moderate-to-strong El Nino events.

[N.B. The starting months for most of El Nino events in Epoch 5 are close to times where either full moons at standstill occur in the northern hemisphere near the winter solstice (i.e December) or new moons occur at standstill in the southern hemisphere near the winter solstice (i.e. December). These are the strongest Perigean New/Full moons over the period between 1963 and 1994.]      

References:


[1] JPL Horizons Web Interface Ephemeris - https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi#top - last accessed 14/10/2018


[2] Smith, C.A. and P. Sardeshmukh, 2000, The Effect of ENSO on the Intraseasonal Variance of Surface Temperature in WinterInternational J. of Climatology20 1543-1557.


[3] http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/cathy.smith/best/

[4] http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/cathy.smith/best/table33.txt

Monday, August 20, 2018

The ABC and Fake News...but I repeat myself!

The Australian Broadcasting Commission (ABC) is telling its viewers that human-induced climate change is causing an unprecedented level of forest fires in the US.

Here is the truth:




Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Coral bleaching is a problem that goes back four centuries


The Australian newspaper is reporting in a pay-walled article that coral bleaching is a problem that goes back four centuries. 

https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/coral-bleaching-a-centuriesold-problem/news-story/33b3cbd7cd3b784322c0a7bc10e98eb6


"A study of coral core ­samples has extended the known history of bleaching by more than 350 years but warns it is becoming more frequent and may be ­approaching a “tipping point” ­beyond which reef survival is ­uncertain.

Published in Frontiers in Marine Science, the research by ­scientists from Glasgow and Edinburgh universities reconstructs temperature-induced bleaching patterns over 381 years spanning 1620-2001. The findings are at odds with claims that mass coral bleaching is a recent phenomenon due to climate change." 

The article claims that coral bleaching has been increasing since 1850 due to warming temperatures caused by human-induced global warming and that we are fast approaching a tipping point from which the GBR will not recover.

Here is my comment at the 16/08/2018 Australian:

Choosing 1850 as your starting point and then claiming that coral bleaching is increasing, is a classic case of false logic called cherry-picking. Looking at the data, I could just as easily claim that coral bleaching is controlled by the level of solar activity. There have been two periods in the last 400 years where the level of sunspot activity on the Sun has dramatically decreased. They are the Maunder minimum and the Dalton minimum. Both were associated with distinct periods of cooling in the world's mean ocean temperatures, with the Maunder minimum reaching its coolest temperatures in about 1660 and the Dalton minimum in 1820. This matches the observed minimums in coral bleaching observed around these same dates.  If the world's mean ocean temperatures are in fact affected by the level of sunspot activity, then we should expect the level of coral bleaching to decrease between about 2020 and 2050, matching the expected decrease in solar activity.


The original scientific paper can be accessed here:

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00283/full

You need to be careful they use a Mann et al. (2008) temperature reconstruction, which should be taken with a truck load of salt. 



Sunday, May 13, 2018

A Re-Post of - The El Niños during New Moon Epoch 5 - 1963 to 1994

A detailed investigation of the precise alignments between the lunar synodic [lunar phase] cycle and the 31/62 year Perigee-Syzygy cycle between 1865 and 2014 shows that it naturally breaks up six 31 year epochs each of which has a distinctly different tidal property. The second 31-year interval starts with the precise alignment on the 15th of April 1870 with the subsequent epoch boundaries occurring every 31 years after that:

Epoch 1 - Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 3 - 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 5 - 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994
Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025



The hypothesis that the 31/62 year seasonal tidal cycle plays a significant role in sequencing the triggering of El Niñevents leads one to reasonably expect that tidal effects for the following three epochs:

New Moon Epoch:
Epoch 1 - Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 3 - 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 5 - 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994

[N.B. During these epochs, the peak seasonal tides are dominated by new moons that are    predominately in the northern hemisphere.]

should be noticeably different to its effects for these three epochs:

Full Moon Epochs:
Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025

[N.B. During these epochs. the peak seasonal tides are dominated by full moons that are predominately in the southern hemisphere.]
If we specifically look at the 31-year New Moon Epoch 5, we find that: 

Figures 1, 2, and 3 (below) show the Moon's distance from the Earth (in kilometers) at the times where it crosses the Earth's equator, for the years 1964 through to 1995.

Figure 1


  Figure 2


Figure 3



Superimposed on each of these figures are the seven strong(#) El Niño events that occurred during this time period. Table 1 summaries the dates (i.e year and month) for start of each of these seven strong El Niño events.

Table 1



# For the definition of a strong El Niño event go to part c) of:

http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/evidence-that-strong-el-Nino-events-are_12.html

[* N.B. The 1969 El Niño event just falls short of the selection criterion for a strong El Niño event because it only last for three months. It has been included in Table 1 for completeness.]

Figures 1,2 and 3 clearly show that all of the eight El Niño events in this tidal epoch occur at times where the distance of the Moon as sequential crossings of the Earth's equator have almost the same value of ~ 382,000 km. In the years when this happens, the lunar line-of-apse is closely aligned with either the December or June Solstice. 

It is possible that this correlation could be dismissed as a coincidence. However, it is extremely unlikely that:

a)  during the other New Moon tidal epoch i.e. Epoch 3 - from the 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932, El Niño events should also occur when the lunar line-of-apse is closely aligned with either the December or June Solstice.

b) during the Full Moon tidal epochs i.e. Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901; Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963; Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025, El Nino events should occur when  the lunar line-of-apse is closely aligned with either the March or September Equinox.

The switch between the timing of El Niño events, once every 31 years, at the same time that there is a switch from a New Moon tidal epoch to Full Moon tidal epoch, tell us that it is very likely that El Niño events, are in fact, triggered by the lunar tides.

Friday, May 11, 2018

Recent Publications


2018

Ian Robert George Wilson* and Nikolay S Sidorenkov, A Luni-Solar Connection to Weather and Climate I: Centennial Times Scales, J Earth Sci Clim Change 2018, 9:2

Abstract:

Lunar ephemeris data is used to find the times when the Perigee of the lunar orbit points directly toward or away from the Sun, at times when the Earth is located at one of its solstices or equinoxes, for the period from 1993 to 2528 A.D. The precision of these lunar alignments is expressed in the form of a lunar alignment index (ϕ). When a plot is made of ϕ, in a frame-of-reference that is fixed with respect to the Perihelion of the Earth’s orbit, distinct periodicities are seen at 28.75, 31.0, 88.5 (Gleissberg Cycle), 148.25, and 208.0 years (de Vries Cycle). The full significance of the 208.0-year repetition pattern in ϕ only becomes apparent when these periodicities are compared to those observed in the spectra for two proxy time series. The first is the amplitude spectrum of the maximum daytime temperatures (Tm) on the Southern Colorado Plateau for the period from 266 BC to 1997 AD. The second is the Fourier spectrum of the solar modulation potential (ϕm) over the last 9400 years. A comparison between these three spectra shows that of the nine most prominent periods seen in ϕ, eight have matching peaks in the spectrum of ϕm, and seven have matching peaks in the spectrum of Tm. This strongly supports the contention that all three of these phenomena are related to one another. A heuristic Luni-Solar climate model is developed in order to explain the connections between ϕ, Tm and ϕm.

https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/a-lunisolar-connection-to-weather-and-climate-i-centennial-times-scales-2157-7617-1000446.pdf

2017

N.S.Sidorenkov, Ian Wilson, Influence of Solar Retrograde Motion on Terrestrial Processes, Odessa Astronomical Publications, vol. 30 (2017), p. 246

Abstract:

The influence of solar retrograde motion on secular minima of solar activity, volcanic eruptions, climate changes, and other terrestrial processes is investigated. Most collected data suggest that secular minima of solar activity, powerful volcanic eruptions, significant climate changes, and catastrophic earthquakes occur around events of solar retrograde motion.

http://oap.onu.edu.ua/article/view/114695/113096

Thursday, April 26, 2018

Temporary Holding Post for Diagram

The NAO is proportional to the Time Rate of Change of the LOD


Figure 1: The top graph shows the time rate of change of the Earth’s length of day (LOD) between 1865 and 2005. (Note: The LOD data has been transformed into arbitrary units so that it can be compared to the NAO index). Positive means that LOD of day is increasing compared to its standard value of 86400 seconds and that Earth is slowing down. The bottom graph shows the North Atlantic Oscillation Index between 1864 and 2006. The data points that are plotted in both graphs have been obtained by taking a five year running mean of the raw data.

Thursday, March 29, 2018

A Luni-Solar Connection to Weather and Climate I: Centennial Times Scales

Ian Robert George Wilson and Nikolay S Sidorenkov

Wilson and Sidorenkov, J Earth Sci Clim Change 2018, 9:1, p. 446

https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/a-lunisolar-connection-to-weather-and-climate-i-centennial-times-scales-2157-7617-1000446.pdf

Abstract:

Lunar ephemeris data is used to find the times when the Perigee of the lunar orbit points directly toward or away from the Sun, at times when the Earth is located at one of its solstices or equinoxes, for the period from 1993 to 2528 A.D. The precision of these lunar alignments is expressed in the form of a lunar alignment index (ϕ). When a plot is made of ϕ, in a frame-of-reference that is fixed with respect to the Perihelion of the Earth’s orbit, distinct periodicities are seen at 28.75, 31.0, 88.5 (Gleissberg Cycle), 148.25, and 208.0 years (de Vries Cycle). The full significance of the 208.0-year repetition pattern in ϕ only becomes apparent when these periodicities are compared to those observed in the spectra for two proxy time series. The first is the amplitude spectrum of the maximum daytime temperatures (Tm ) on the Southern Colorado Plateau for the period from 266 BC to 1997 AD. The second is the Fourier spectrum of the solar modulation potential (ϕm) over the last 9400 years. A comparison between these three spectra shows that of the nine most prominent periods seen in ϕ, eight have matching peaks in the spectrum of ϕm, and seven have matching peaks in the spectrum of Tm. This strongly supports the contention that all three of these phenomena are related to one another. A heuristic Luni-Solar climate model is developed in order to explain the connections between ϕ, Tm and ϕm.



Discussion and Conclusions:

Lunar ephemeris data is used to find all the times when the Perigee of the lunar orbit points directly at, or away, from the Sun, at times when the Earth is located at one of the cardinal points of its seasonal calendar (i.e., the summer solstice, winter solstices, spring equinox or autumnal equinox). All of the close lunar alignments are identified over a 536-year period between January 1st 1993 A.D. 00:00 hrs UT and December 31st 2528 A.D 00:00 hrs UT.

When a plot is made of the precision of these alignments, in a frame-of-reference that is fixed with respect to the Perihelion of the Earth’s orbit, the most precise alignments take place in an orderly pattern that repeats itself once every 208.0 years:

0 × (28.75 + 31.00) + 28.75 years = 28.75 years ≈ 25.5 FMC’s
1 × (28.75 + 31.00) + 28.75 years = 88.5 years ≈ 78.5 FMC’s
2 × (28.75 + 31.00) + 28.75 years = 148.25 years ≈ 131.5 FMC’s
3 × (28.75 + 31.00) + 28.75 years = 208.0 years ≈ 184.5 FMC’s

A simple extension of this pattern gives additional precise alignments at periods of: 236.75, 296.50, 356.25, 416.0, 444.75 and 504.5 years. The full significance of the 208-year repetition pattern in the periodicities of lunar alignment index (ϕ) only becomes apparent when these periodicities are compared to those observed in the spectra for two proxy time series.

The first is the amplitude spectrum of the maximum daytime temperatures (Tm ) on the Southern Colorado Plateau for a 2,264-year period from 266 BC to 1997 AD. Tm is believed to be a proxy for how warm it gets during the daytime in any given year i.e., it is an indicator of annual mean maximum daytime temperature. Tm is derived from the tree ring widths of Bristlecone Pines (P. aristata) located near the upper tree-line of the San Francisco Peaks (= 3,536 m).

The second is the Fourier spectrum of the solar modulation potential (ϕm) for the last 9400 years. ϕm is a proxy for the ability of the Sun’s magnetic field to deflect cosmic rays, and as such, it is a good indicator of the overall level of solar activity. It is derived from production rates of the cosmogenic radionuclides 10Be and 14C. When a comparison is made between these three spectra it shows that, of the nine most prominent periods seen in the lunar alignment index, eight have closely matching peaks in the spectrum of solar modulation potential (ϕm), and seven have closely matching peaks in the spectrum of the maximum daytime temperatures (Tm). The fact that the so many of the most prominent peaks that are seen in the lunar alignment index spectrum closely match those seen in the spectra of ϕm and Tm, strongly supports the contention that all three of these phenomena are closely related to one another.

The critical piece of observational evidence that explains why Tm might be related to ϕm is provided [32]. These authors find that there is a good correlation between the de-trended GCR flux and the semiannual component of the Earth’s LOD. Our analysis confirms the correlation found [32] and shows that the correlation is causal, with the changes in the GCR flux preceding those seen in the semi-annual component of the Earth’s LOD by roughly one year.

This result leads us to develop a heuristic luni-solar model in order to explain the connection between Tm and ϕm. Firstly, the model proposes that there must be some as yet unknown factor associated with the level of solar activity on the Sun (e.g. possibly the overall level GCR hitting the Earth) that is producing long-term systematic changes in the amount and/or type of regional cloud cover. Secondly, it proposes that the resulting changes in regional cloud cover lead to variations in the temperature differences between the tropics and the poles which, in turn, result in changes to the peak strength of the zonal tropical winds. Thirdly, the model proposes that it is the long-term changes in the amount and/or type of regional cloud cover, combined with the variations in the temperature differences between the tropics and the poles that lead to the long-term changes in the poleward energy and momentum flux. And finally, it proposes that it is this flux which governs the rate at which the Earth warms and cools, and hence, determines the long-term changes in the world mean temperature.

The close matches between the periods of the prominent peaks that are seen in spectra of ϕ Figure 4a and Tm Figure 4c, indicate that a factor associated with the times at which the Perigee of the lunar orbit points directly towards or directly away from the Sun, at times when the Earth is at one of its Solstices or Equinoxes, has an influence on the Earth’s mean temperature [N.B. these alignments take place in frame of reference that is fixed with respect to the Perihelion of the Earth’s orbit].

The proposed Luni-Solar Model suggests one possible mechanism that might explain the influence of ϕ upon Tm. This model proposes that the periodicities associated with the long-term alignments between the times when the Perigee of the lunar orbit points directly towards or directly away from the Sun (i.e., half multiples of the FMC) and the seasons (i.e., the Solstices and Equinoxes – which, by definition, are synchronized with annual and semi-annual variations in LOD), produce comparable periodicities in the zonal wind speeds of the Earth’s atmosphere. These wind speed changes, in turn, produce longterm periodicities in the Earth’s mean temperature through their influence upon the efficiency with which the Earth warms and cools.

Finally, if we accept the hypothesis that planetary gravitational and tidal forces could influence the overall level of the Sun’s magnetic activity, then the observed synchronicity between ϕ and ϕm could be explained if these same planetary forces played a role in shaping the present-day orbit of the Moon.