Astro-Climate-Connection: North Atlantic Hurricane Season

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November

2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November

2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November

References:

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2014_Atlantic_hurricane_season
2. Sidorenkov, N.S., 2009: The Interaction Between Earth’s Rotation and Geophysical Processes, Weinheim: Wiley.
3. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2014&basin=atl
4. Brown, D.B., 2015, NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report - Hurricane Gonzalo - AL082014, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL082014_Gonzalo.pdf
5. Bevan II, J.L., 2015, NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report - Tropical Storm Dolly - AL052014, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052014_Dolly.pdf

Here are Some Details About the Buildup of North Atlantic Storms and Hurricanes.

1. Hurricane Gonzalo - 12th to 19th October 2014

The NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report on Hurricane Gonzalo
(AL082014) states the following about the buildup of this meteorological event.

"The development of Gonzalo can be traced to a tropical wave that departed the west coast of Africa on 4 October. The wave was accompanied by a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms while it moved westward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. During this time, an upper-level trough over the subtropical eastern and central Atlantic produced strong upper-level westerly winds over the system, which prevented development. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the wave became more concentrated after the passage of an eastward-moving atmospheric Kelvin wave around 10 October. Shortly thereafter, the tropical wave passed west of the upper-level trough- axis and into an area of less hostile wind conditions, and a small surface low-pressure area formed late on 11 October. Thunderstorm activity associated with system increased in organization, and it is estimated that a tropical depression formed around 0000 UTC 12 October about 340 n mi east of the Leeward Islands."

2. Tropical Storm Dolly - 1st to 3rd September 2014

The NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report on Tropical Strom Dolly
(AL052014) states the following about the buildup of this meteorological event.

"Dolly originated from a tropical wave that moved westward from the coast of Africa on 19
August. The wave showed little distinction until it reached the eastern Caribbean Sea on 27
August, at which time the associated convection increased. Addition development was slow until
30 August, when the convection became better organized during possible interaction with an
eastward-moving atmospheric Kelvin wave. A low-pressure area formed on 31 August over the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the associated circulation and convection became better
organized on 1 September when the low reached the Bay of Campeche. It is estimated that a
tropical depression developed near 1800 UTC that day about 295 n mi east-southeast of Tampico,
Mexico."

My Response

These two quotes show that some potential North Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms begin their lives as a wave-like disturbance in the near-equatorial North Atlantic Ocean that move west towards the Carribean and North America. At some point in their journey, the showers and thunderstorms associated with these wave-like disturbances become more concentrated and more organized, leading to the formation of either tropical lows (L) or depressions (TD).

In addition, the two quotes point out that the increasing concentration and organization of the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with these disturbances comes about through their interaction with east-ward moving atmospheric (equatorial) Kelvin waves (EKWs).

I have proposed that the easterly propagating (equatorial) Kelvin waves are generated when:

the peak in the lunar-induced tides passes through the local meridian at either 4:00 a.m. or 4:00 p.m. local time when the diurnal surface pressure is a minimum (Note: this takes place roughly once every quarter of a synodic month = 7.38 days).

http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/02/the-lunar-tidal-model-part-4.html

In addition, I have proposed that, whenever the peak of the Moon's tidal bulge crosses the Earth's equator* or whenever it reaches its maximum distance from the Earth's equator i.e. lunar standstill* (Note: this takes place roughly once every quarter of a lunar Tropical month = 6.83 days), tropical low-pressure cells are formed in the (near-equatorial) tropical oceans. In the Atlantic Ocean, these lows are generated as westerly-moving Equatorial Rossby waves that are spawned from the trailing edge of the easterly-propagating (equatorial) Kelvin waves.

[*NOTE: At these times there is an ebb (i.e. either a tidal minimum or maximum) in the lunar-induced atmospheric/oceanic tides at the Earth's equator. It is also at these times that the lunar-induced changes to the Earth's relative angular velocity (Delta Omega/Omega) reach a maximum or a minimum.]

Bottom Line: If the NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report mentions that the formation of a tropical low, depression or storm was influenced by an interaction with an easterly-propagating Kelvin Waves, it will be noted in all future figures.

Note: If the NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report indicates that the origin of the tropical low, depression or storm was Non-tropical, this will be noted, as well.

CLAIM

Tropical depressions or storms that appear in the Atlantic Ocean between the Equator and 25.0 degrees North during the North Atlantic Hurricane season, will do so on dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity of the Earth's rotation. [N.B. the dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity occur close to the times when the Moon crosses the Earth's equator or reaches lunar standstill (i.e. the Moon is furthest north or south of the Equator).]

Of the Ten events in the 2014 North Atlantic Hurricane Season,

a) Eight Tropical Depressions/Tropical Storms/Hurricanes support the above claim.

i) 0 to 25 degrees_________Bertha, Christobal?, Dolly, Edouard, Gonzalo, Hanna, Hanna (Regenerated)

ii) Extratropical (> 25 degrees)____Arthur

b) Two Tropical Depressions/Tropical Storms/Hurricanes definitely DO NOT support the above claim.

i) 0 to 25 degrees_________TD 2 (weak)

ii) Extratropical (> 25 degrees)____Fay

[Note: There is some question about Christobal]

KEY FOR FIGURES

KW = Kelvin Wave

L = Low Pressure
TD = Tropical Depression
TS = Tropical Storm
CATN = Category N Hurricane where N = 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5.
PK = Peak Activity

JUNE