Friday, May 10, 2019

[Rhetorical Question] Do you think that the Moon might have something to do with it?

SUMMARY

Given the link to the 8.85/9.1 year lunar tidal cycles, what the Brandt et al. (2011) paper is telling us is that:
a) The Moon is continuously producing semi-monthly pulses of (easterly moving) Equatorial Kelvin waves and (westerly moving) Equatorial Rossby waves that are rushing across the equatorial Atlantic Ocean.
b) These produce the high baroclinic [Atlantic] basin [oscillation] modes. This can be thought of as a slow resonant sloshing motion of the surface waters of the equatorial Atlantic that is constrained by the coasts of eastern South America (at the Mouth of the Amazon) and eastern Equatorial Africa (at Equatorial Guinea).
c) These, in turn, are driving the 4.5-year cycle seen in the upwelling of energy from the depths of the equatorial Atlantic Ocean.
Reference:

Brandt, P., Funk, A., Hormann, V., Dengler, M., Greatbatch, R.J., and Toole, J.M., 2001, Interannual atmospheric variability forced by the deep equatorial Atlantic Ocean, 
Nature volume473pages497500

Main Conclusion


"We propose that the variability in the equatorial zonal surface flow is not due to wind forcing with the same period but rather is a mode internal to the ocean, with its origin in the abyss (perhaps as deep as several thousand metres). If this is indeed the case, then the observed atmospheric variability in the 4–5-yr period band in the equatorial Atlantic can be interpreted as a consequence of internal ocean dynamics."


Brandt et al. (2011) contends that the Tropical Atlantic (meteorological) variability has two dominant modes:

1) The meridional mode that peaks in the boreal spring and is characterized by a latitudinal (N-S) sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient that drives cross-equatorial wind velocities anomalies from the colder to the warmer hemisphere.

2) The zonal mode that is most pronounced during the boreal summer and is characterized by a longitudinal (E-W) SST gradient along the Equator that is associated with marked zonal wind anomalies. The boreal summer months also correspond to a time when there is a seasonal maximum in equatorial upwelling deep-ocean water that leads to the development of the eastern Atlantic SST cold tongue.

Historically, the variability of the eastern equatorial Atlantic SSTs has been best represented by the ATL3 index. This index measures the average SST anomaly inside a box with a latitude range of 3O S – 3O N, and a longitude range of 0O E – 20O W. The ATL3 index is used as a proxy to monitor the effects of the zonal and meridional modes upon the gradients in SST in the Tropical Atlantic.

Brandt et al. (2001) show that, during the last couple of decades, the ALT3 index shows significant variability on interannual timescales with a dominant periodicity between about 4 – 5 years. They find that the variance of the different ocean parameters is maximized by adopting a harmonic period of 1,670 days (= 4.5723 tropical years). The associated amplitude of these fluctuations is 0.29 +/- 0.08 C, when averaged over the ATL3 region, with the largest amplitudes (~ 0.4 C) occurring in the eastern equatorial Atlantic Ocean.

In addition, Brandt et al. (2011) find that:

1) the oceanic surface zonal geostrophic velocity anomaly, measured along the Equator between longitudes 15O W – 35O W, and
2)  the zonal velocity measured at 1000-m depth, as observed by the Argo floats, between 1O S – 1O N and 15O W – 35O W.

both exhibit inter-annual variations that is best described by a harmonic period of 1,670 days.

Confirmation of these results is provided by the curves displayed in figure 1b (shown below - Brandt et al. 2011). 

The top part of figure 1b shows the ATL3 SST anomaly index (red dashed line) and the HADISST anomaly (red thin solid line- presumably covering the same zone as the ATL3 index), with its 1,670-day harmonic fit (red thick solid line). In contrast, the bottom part of figure 1b shows the oceanic surface zonal geostrophic velocity anomaly (black thin solid line), with its 1,670-day harmonic fit (black thick solid line), and the zonal velocity at a depth of 1000-m (black dots with standard error bars), with its 1,670-day harmonic fit. 


Figure 1


Analysis of the zonal velocities at 1,000-m depth reveals a periodic behavior that is similar to the SST and surface geostrophic zonal velocity anomalies (Fig. 1b), with the dominant period of the Argo float drift data being 4.4 years [over the period from 1998 to 2010]. The data shows a series of jets, alternating with depth, with a vertical wavelength of 300 to 700 metres.  Interestingly, linear internal wave theory indicates that the downward phase velocity of the equatorial deep jets (~100 metres per year) corresponds to an upward energy propagation that reaches the surface and affects sea-surface conditions.

Finally, Brandt et al. point out that the observations in the equatorial Atlantic reveal a similar periodic behavior for the deep-jet oscillations over varying time intervals and depths. They suggest that a consistent behavior of this nature could arise from the development of high baroclinic [Atlantic] basin [oscillation] modes established by the eastward propagation of Kelvin and Rossby waves.

The Connection to the Lunar Tidal Cycles

Interestingly, the 1670-day periodicity associated with the upward propagation of energy from the ocean depths in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean is half 9.145 tropical years or if you believe the 4.4-year periodicity associated with Argo float data (for the zonal velocities at 1000-m depth), half of 8.8 tropical years.  

What is fascinating is that each of these periods is close to well-known long-term cycles associated with the lunar tides.

The 9.145 tropical year periodicity is close to the observed 9.1-year cycle in the world mean temperature. Half of this 9.1-year variation (i.e. 4.55 tropical years = 1662 days) is often associated with the harmonic mean of half the 18.6-year Lunar Nodical Cycle (i.e. LNC/2 = 9.3 years) and the 8.85-year Lunar Anomalistic Cycle (LAC). Similarly, the twice the 4.4.-year period that is associated with the Argo float data (i.e. 8.8 years) is reasonably close to the 8.85-year LAC.

Figure 2 below shows that 1670-day harmonic-period that is representative of the upwelling of energy from the depths of the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, compared to the rate of change of the angle between the lunar line-of-apse and the Earth-Sun line, as measured at the time of Perihelion [units - degree per year].

Figure 2


The very close phase alignment between these two phenomena raises the possibility that the lunar tides are responsible for the eastwardly propagating Kelvin and Rossby waves that are believed to produce the high baroclinic [Atlantic] basin [oscillation] modes. It is believed that these, in turn, are driving the upwelling of energy from the depths of the equatorial Atlantic Ocean.

Support for this hypothesis is given by the lunar tidal model developed by the author in February 2019, details of which can found at:


N.B. Unfortunately, the short time periods covered by the equatorial SST data [17 years for the Brandt et al (2011) data and 12 years for the Argo float data], means that there has been insufficient time to distinguish whether a periodicity of 8.85 years or 9.1 years best fits the SST data.







Thursday, May 9, 2019

The 2013 Prediction of Greater Than Normal Rainfall over SE Australia and Flooding in the Brisbane Valley in 2029 (+/- 1 year)

In 2013, I predicted that SE-Australia needed to prepare for hot dry conditions in the summer of 2019 (i.e. the 2018/19 summer) and possible extensive flooding in 2029 (+/- 1 year).

In 2018/19, the SE of Australia had one of its hottest summers and it is currently experiencing one of its most severe droughts.

The Federal Government and BOM (Bureau of Meteorology) have ignored the 2018/19 prediction and they seem to have no interest in understanding why there could be extensive flooding in 2029.


1. Evidence to Support the Prediction of Flooding in the Brisbane Valley in 2029 (+/- 1 year).

Further evidence that the Moon may have an important role in determining the frequency of extreme weather events in Australia is provided in Table 1. This table shows the dates of major floods in the Brisbane River Valley since the Europeans first discovered the region in 1825.

Table 1
 

Table 1 reveals that the major floods recorded at Brisbane and/or Ipswich are separated by a period of time that is equal to the Lunar Draconic Cycle of 18.6 years. Unfortunately, the general picture is clouded by the fact that there appear to be three parallel sequences of 18.6 years that fade in and out and sometimes there are floods that occur 3 years prior to expected sequence date. 

The 1825 lunar flood sequence is the only one that persists over the 188-year record with the other sequences (i.e. those starting in 1856 and 1889) fading out after only a few cycles. If the 1825 lunar flood sequence continues, we should expect to a significant flooding event in either Brisbane or Ipswich in 2029 (+/- 1 year). 

2. Evidence to Support The Prediction of Above Average Rainfall Over SE Australia in 2029.

Finally, the top of the figure on the front of this submission (shown above) shows a sequence of maps of Australia’s annual rainfall, starting in 2010.5 and going back till 1899 in steps of time that are equivalent to the 18.6-year lunar Draconic cycle. In all but one case (i.e. 1899) the rainfall over south-eastern Australia was significantly above average in these years. If this sequence persists then we should expect greater than normal rain over south-eastern Australia in 2029 (+/- 1 year).

Wednesday, May 1, 2019

Factors Which Affect the Location and Strength of High-Pressure Cells Over South-Eastern Australia During the Southern Summer (DJF)

Updated 10/05/2019

The Sub-Tropical High-Pressure Ridge

1. The Hadley atmospheric circulation cells ensure that the Earth is surrounded by two broad bands of high-pressure roughly located 30 degrees north and south of the Equator. These bands of high pressure are known as the Sub-Tropical High-Pressure Ridge (STHR).



2. The peaks of the STHRs slowly drift from north and south with the seasons.

3. During the Southern Hemisphere Winter (in July), the peak of the STHR is located at roughly 27 S.


4. On average, the centre of the STHR moves south by six degrees to 33 S during the height of the Southern Hemisphere Summer (i.e. January), with the peak of the pressure ridge moving as far as 42  to 43 S during the latter half of summer (i.e. February).


The Semi-Permanent High-Pressure Cells in the STHR

1. During the summer months (DJF), there are four semi-permanent high-pressure cells embedded within the Southern Hemisphere STHR. The first is centered on the island of Tahiti in the South Pacific, the second is centered on the island of Tristan Da Cunha in the South Atlantic, the third is located off the west coast of Australia in the Indian ocean, and the fourth is located off the South Eastern coast of Australia. The latter is often split between the Tasman Sea and the Great Australian Bight with the relative strength and location of the two cells changing over time.

2. Wilson [2012] has shown that variations in the latitude anomaly of the peak of the summer (DJF) STHR over Eastern Australia exhibit the same period and phase as that of the 18.6-year draconic spring tidal cycle.

3. In essence, what this means is that, on average, the latitude of the peak of the STHR moves back and forth in latitude by one degree between the years where the Line-of-Apse of the lunar orbit (marking the long axis of the egg shape of the lunar orbit) points directly towards or away from the Sun at the time of Perihelion, and the years where the Line-of-Apse is at right angles to the Earth-Sun line at the time of Perihelion.



This may not seem like much, but it does represent a shift of at least 100 kilometers in latitude and it can become important when it is combined with longitudinal shifts in the relative location of the centre of the semi-permanent high off SE Australia.

4. Support for the lunar influence upon the latitudinal shifts of the summer STHR is provided by the fact that the -12.57 μsec change in the length-of-day (LOD) associated with the 18.6-year Draconic lunar tides could be explained if the mass of air above 3000 m in the STHR (of both hemispheres) is systematic shifts backward and forward in latitude by one-degree over a period of 18.6 years. 

http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2012/06/simple-model-for-186-year-atmospheric.html

5. Wilson and Sidorenkov [2013] used the longitudinal shift-and-add method to show that there are westerly moving N=4 standing wave-like patterns in the summer (DJF) mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomaly maps of the Southern Hemisphere between 1947 and 1994. They showed that the standing wave patterns in the MSLP anomaly maps circumnavigate the Earth with periods of 36, 18, and 9 years [moving at 10, 20 and 40 degrees west per year, repectively]. Wilson and Sidorenkov [2013] claim that the N=4 standing wave patterns in the MSLP are just long-term lunar atmospheric tides that are produced by the 18.6-year lunar Draconic cycle.

6. For example, figure 6 a-c from Wilson and Sidorenkov [2013] displayed below shows that, as result of these tidally driven atmospheric standing waves, a large negative anomaly of atmospheric pressure passed from east to west through the Great Australian Bight on or around the year 1971 moving at about 10 degrees per year towards the west.


7. It does not take much to realize that such slow-moving longitudinal atmospheric anomalies being driven by the 18.6-year Draconic lunar tidal cycle would have a significant effect upon the relative strength and location of the semi-permanent high-pressure cells located in the Tasman Sea and the Great Australian Bight. This is particularly true given that these longitudinal changes in the relative strength and location of the semi-permanent high-pressure cells are being matched in period and phase by corresponding changes in the latitude of the peak of the STHR (Wilson 2012).

8. Hence, it very likely that changes in the temperatures and rainfall experienced over the SE corner of the Australian continent should exhibit periodicities that match the 18.6-year lunar Draconic tidal cycle.

9. This 18.6-year pattern shows up in the annual rainfall anomaly of Victoria between 1900 and 2013.


10. Which is confirmed by the following graph of the normalized auto-correlation of the Victorian rainfall (positive) anomalies between 1900 and 2017.




Please read the following three blog posts: 

What is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology Trying to Hide?


A 2013 Prediction of Severe Drought in South-Eastern Australia in 2019, Willfully Ignored by the Australian Government.


Another 2013 prediction that the temperatures in SE Australia would be above normal in 2019 - Completely ignored by the Government!


References:

Wilson I.R.G. Lunar tides and the long-term variation of the peak latitude anomaly of the summer Sub-Tropical High-Pressure Ridge over Eastern Australia. Open Atmos Sci J 2012; 6: 49-60.

Wilson I.R.G. and Sidorenkov N.S., Long-Term Lunar Atmospheric Tides in the Southern Hemisphere. Open Atmos Sci J 2013; 7: 51-76

Another 2013 prediction that the temperatures in SE Australia would be above normal in 2019 - Completely ignored by the Government!

Reference:

Wilson I.R.G. and Sidorenkov N.S., Long-Term Lunar Atmospheric Tides in the Southern Hemisphere. Open Atmos Sci J 2013; 7: 51-76

https://benthamopen.com/contents/pdf/TOASCJ/TOASCJ-7-51.pdf

How long does it take for the egg-shape of the lunar orbit to align with both the phase of the Moon and the annual seasonal cycle?

The 31/62/93/186-Year Perigee-Syzygy Lunar tidal Cycle

If you start out with a new moon at its closest point to the Earth [i.e. closest Perigee] around perihelion [i.e. at the start or end of the annual seasonal cycle], then the Line-of-Apse [representing the longest dimension of the egg-shape of the lunar orbit] must rotate seven times around the Earth with respect to the stars (i.e. 7 x 8.8506 = 61.954 ~ 62.0 tropical years) before a new moon reoccurs at closest Perigee at the same point in the annual seasonal cycle (e.g. perihelion).

Another way of saying this is that a new moon at closest perigee will reoccur at the same point in the annual seasonal cycle (e.g. perihelion), once every three Perigee-Syzygy cycles plus one Full Moon Cycle (i.e. [3 x 20.2937] + 1.1274 = 62.0085 tropical years) or 55 Full Moon Cycles (where 1.0 FMC = 1.1274 years = the time required for the egg shape of the lunar orbit to precisely return to pointing at the Sun).

Hence, if you start out with a new moon at closest perigee at or near the time of perihelion, you will get a Full Moon at closest perigee, on roughly the same day, 31 years later, and a New Moon at closest perigee, on roughly the same day, 62 years after the starting date.

How long does it take for the tilt of the lunar orbit to align with both the phase of the Moon and the annual seasonal cycle?

The 93/186-Year Draconic Cycle

 If you start out with a new moon at the ascending node of the lunar orbit [i.e. the same point in the tilt of the lunar orbit] around Perihelion [i.e. at the start or end of the annual seasonal cycle], then the Line-of-Nodes [representing the tilt of the lunar orbit] must rotate five times around the Earth with respect to the stars (i.e. 5 x 18.5999 = 92.9996 ~ 93.0 tropical years) before it returns to a full moon at the descending node around perihelion.

This means that if you start out with a new moon at or near the time of perihelion that is close to one of the nodes of the lunar orbit and at perigee, 93 tropical years later you will have a full moon that is close to the opposite node and at perigee on roughly the same day of the year. This is true because:

1150.5 lunar synodic months = 33974.9425 days = 93.0203 tropical years
1233 lunar anomalistic months = 33974.7600 days = 93.0198 tropical years and
1248.5 draconic months =33974.4577 days = 93.0190 tropical years.

[N.B. The full tidal cycle is actually 186 years long since it takes this long for the Moon to return to a New Moon phase at a time when it  returns to the same node, at perigee, and at perihelion].

How long does it take for the egg-shape and tilt of the lunar orbit to realign with both the phase of the Moon and the annual seasonal cycle?

 In order to get a sense of the times when the 31/62/93/186-year lunar Perigee-Syzygy cycle and the 93/186-year lunar Draconic Cycle mutually reinforced each other, curves are plotted in Fig. (14) that indicate the strength of alignment between the two cycles between the years 1857 and 2024.



The blue curve in the above figure shows the angle between the line-of-nodes of the lunar orbit (i.e. the tilt of the lunar orbit) and the Earth-Sun line at the time of Perihelion (theta). The curve is derived in such a way as to highlight the southern summers where there is close alignment. This is done by plotting the function 1/(1+ theta). 

Similarly, the brown curve in this figure shows the angle between the line-of-apse of the lunar orbit (i.e. the egg shape of the lunar orbit) and the Earth-Sun line at the time of perihelion (phi) plotted as the function - 1/(1 + phi).  The functions represented by the blue and brown curves in this figure are used to generate the red curve.

The red curve is an alignment index that is designed to represent the level of reinforcement of the 93/186-year Draconic tidal cycle by the 31/62/93/186-year Perigee-Syzygy tidal cycle. This is done by plotting the values of the blue curve at times when there is a close alignment of the line-of-apse and the Earth-Sun line at perihelion (i.e. when phi < 16°).

The red curve shows that are two epochs 1872 to 1917 and 1973 to 2019, each lasting about 45 years, where there is a strong mutual reinforcement of the Draconic tidal cycle by the Perigee-Syzygy tidal cycle. Individual peaks in the mutual reinforcement occur roughly once every 9.3 years and comparable peaks in the two climate epochs are separated from each other by 93 years.

The Mutually Reinforcing Tidal Model

The fact that the Draconic tidal cycle is mutually enhanced by the Perigee-Syzygy tidal cycle has an observable effect upon the climate variables in the South Eastern part of Australia.

The figure below shows the median summer time (December 1st to March 15th) maximum temperature anomaly. This data is obtained from the Australian BOM High-Quality Data Set 2010, by taking the average for the cities of Melbourne (1857 to 2009 – Melbourne Regional Office – Site Number: 086071) and Adelaide (1879 to 2009 – Adelaide West Terrace – Site Number 023000 combined with Adelaide Kent Town – Site Number 023090), between 1857 and 2009 (blue curve).

Superimposed on this figure is the alignment index curve from the previous figure above (red curve).


A comparison between these two curves reveals that on almost every occasion where there has been a strong alignment between the Draconic and Perigee-Syzygy tidal cycles, there has been a noticeable increase in the median maximum summer-time temperature, averaged for the cities of Melbourne and Adelaide.

Hence, the mutual reinforcing tidal model predicts that the median maximum summer-time temperatures in Melbourne and Adelaide should be noticeably above normal during the summer of 2018/19.


Monday, April 29, 2019

A 2013 Prediction of Severe Drought in South-Eastern Australia in 2019, Willfully Ignored by the Australian Government.

The following shows the front page of Dr. Ian R.G. Wilson's submission to the 2013 Australian Senate Committee on Recent Trends in and Preparedness for Extreme Weather Events.

https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Environment_and_Communications/Completed_inquiries/2010-13/extremeweather/submissions

106Dr Ian Wilson (PDF 903KB
   

As you can see, there is an unequivocal prediction on the front cover of this report that states that: "South-Eastern Australia needs to prepare for hot dry conditions in the summer of 2019 and possible extensive flooding in 2029".

The Australian Senate and the Australian Government willfully ignored this prediction, leaving it totally unprepared for the terrible suffering of Australia's rural/farming communities bought on by one of the severest droughts in Australian history.

The Australian Government continues to ignore the main conclusions of this submission.   

Friday, April 5, 2019

Predicting the next phase shift in the AMO.

UPDATED 08/04/2019

I predict that the next AMO shift (to a negative phase) will be around 2025 (please see the update below*).

I  showed that between 1870 and 2025, the precise alignments between the lunar synodic [phase] cycle and the 31/62 year Perigean New/Full moon cycle, naturally breaks up into six 31-year epochs each of which has a distinctly different tidal property. Note that the second of these 31-year intervals starts with the precise alignment on the 15th of April 1870, with the subsequent epoch boundaries occurring every 31 years after that:

Epoch 1 - Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 3 - 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 5 - 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994
Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025





*UPDATE:

There is one important caveat to my prediction for the next transition date for the phase change of the AMO.

Wilson, I.R.G. and Sidorenkov, N.S., 2019, A Luni-Solar Connection to Weather and Climate II: Extreme Perigean New/Full Moons & El Niño Events, The General Science Journal, Jan 2019, 7637.
(see page 22)

http://gsjournal.net/Science-Journals/Research%20Papers-Climate%20Studies/Download/7637

A more detailed analysis of the transitional spring tidal events in the Perigean Spring New/Full moon cycles shows that they slowly drift into and then out of alignment with the nominal seasonal boundaries. This means that the end of the epoch that starts in 1994.237 (i.e Epoch 6) may not be in 2025.243 (i.e. 31-year later – see table 2) as the spring tidal events would no longer be in close alignment with the seasonal boundaries.

The most likely outcome is that epoch boundary marked by the strongest spring tidal events that align with the Spring Equinox near 2025.243 (i.e. March 29th 15:15 UT 2025) would move back in time by 4.531 years to a new epoch boundary marked by the strongest spring tidal events that align with the Autumnal Equinox near 2020.712 (i.e. September 17th 17:33 U.T. 2020).

This would produce a series of 31-year epochs (starting with strong spring tides that are aligned with the Autumnal Equinox) in the years 2020, 2051, 2082, 2113, and 2144 that closely match the
series of 31-year epochs (starting with strong spring tides that are aligned with the Spring
Equinox) in the years 1870, 1901, 1932, 1963, and 1994.

Hence, it is possible that the AMO may undergo a transition in its phase (from positive to negative) as early as 2020.

Thursday, April 4, 2019

Evidence That the 11-Year Solar Cycle Influences the Strength of the Walker Circulation.

During periods where the La Nina/Neutral mode of the ENSO dominates, the trade winds blow strongly from east to west across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The presence of these strong winds results in a corresponding strengthening of the Walker circulation cell. Note that the trade winds are generally stronger during the La Nina phase compared to the Neutral phase.

During periods where the El Nino mode of the ENSO dominates, the east to west flow of the trade winds across the equatorial Pacific Ocean substantially weaken. This results in a corresponding weakening of the Walker circulation cell.

Let's consider the possibility that the natural forcing factors that produce a La Nina/Neutral mode in the ENSO are not the same as those that produce an El Nino mode. If this is true, then the main interaction between these two phenomena would just be that the presence of one would (by necessity) preclude the presence of the other.

Hence, a more realistic investigation of the factors driving the La Nina/Neutral phenomenon could be carried out if the La Nina/Neutral component of an ENSO index time series could be isolated from its EL Nino component. One such index is the monthly Nino3.4 SST anomaly which exceeds 0.8 C when the ENSO in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is in an El Nino state.

Clearly, there is no easy way to fully isolate the ENSO La Nina/Neutral state, however, it could be crudely done by simply setting all the monthly Nino3.4 SST anomalies above 0.8 C to zero. This would have the gross effect of partially subduing spectral component associated with the El Nino state. In the following, this time series will be referred to as the monthly Nina3.4 SST anomaly.

The top plot in figure 1 (below) shows the monthly Nina3.4 SST anomaly from 1950 to 2017, with all SST anomalies > 0.8 C set to 0.0 C (black curve). The x-axis shows the number of months since the start of 1950.

Superimposed on the top plot in figure 1 is the 11-year component (red curve) obtained from Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) of the monthly Nina3.4 SST anomaly time series (see figure 3 below for the SSA plot). A comparison between the red and black curves shows that, except for a brief period around 1955 (i.e. ~ 65 months), the 11-year SSA component seems to match the smoothed long-term variations of the monthly Nina3.4 SST anomaly data.

The bottom plot in figure 1 shows the monthly sunspot number (SSN) between 1950 and 2017, also plotted against the number of months since 1950. As you can see, there is a good phase match between the 11-year SSA spectral component and the 11-year cycle in the SSN.

Note that the data in figure 1 implies that there is a weakening (or slow down) of the Walker Circulation at times near solar maximum. This is in agreement with a recently published paper:

Slowdown of the Walker circulation at solar cycle maximum
Stergios Misios, Lesley J. Gray, Mads F. Knudsen, Christoffer Karoff, Hauke Schmidt, and Joanna D. Haigh

The authors of this paper provide robust evidence that the solar (sunspot) cycle affects decadal variability in the tropical Pacific. Using the analysis of independent observations, they demonstrate a slowdown of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) at solar cycle maximum.

Figure 1



Confirmation of the presence of a periodic 11-year cycle in the monthly Nina3.4 SST anomalies time series is shown in figure2. This plot is a Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of the time series. It shows that there are four periods in the monthly Nina3.4 SST anomalies that have a significance greater than 95 % (assuming AR1 noise) [Note: These four periods are NOT found in the El Nino component of the monthly Nino3.4 SST anomaly series]:

a) the 1.0-year period associated with the seasonal cycle
b) the 1.125-year period associated with the 1.127-year Full Moon Cycle (FMC)
c) the 0.950-year period associated with the 0.949-year (lunar) Draconic year cycle
d) the  11.24-year period tentatively associated with the 11.2-year Schwabe Cycle in the SSN.

The presence of spectral peaks at periods associated with the FMC and the (lunar) Draconic year indicates that there must a lunar tidal influence upon the timing of the La Nina/Neutral component of the ENSO phenomenon.

Figure 2





Figure 3 shows the SSA of the monthly Nina3.4 SST anomalies presence of:

a) the 1.0-year period associated with the seasonal cycle
b) the 11.127-year period associated with the (lunar tidal) FMC
c) the 11.9-year period tentatively associated with the 11.2-year Schwabe Cycle in the SSN.
d) the 3.62-year period tentatively associated with the 3.73-year 1/3rd Schwabe Cycle.

Note that 3.62-year peak is most likely the merged peak of the 1/3rd Schwabe SSN cycle (at 3.747 years) with a peak at three times the Chandler Wobble (3.555 years = 3 x 1.1850 years) such that:

3.651 years = (3.555 + 3.747 years)/2

Figure 3






















Wednesday, March 27, 2019

The Genius of Nikolay Sidorenkov

Here is a succinct summary of Nikolay Sidorenkov's theoretical explanation for the observations that I have presented in this blog! Nikolay Sidorenkov is a true genius!!

SUMMARY (if TL'DR): Just as the Earth's movement around the Sun produces the yearly seasonal cycles in the Earth's weather, the weekly movement of the Earth about the Earth-Moon barycentre produces weekly-seasons in the Earth's synoptic weather.
       
For more detail see: Celestial Mechanical Causes of Weather and Climate Change N. S. Sidorenkov 
Izvestiya, Atmospheric, and Oceanic Physics, 2016, Vol. 52, No. 7, pp. 667–682

Note: μ is what I call ((delta omega)/omega) in my earlier emails.
 
NATURAL SYNOPTIC PERIODS 

The monitoring of the tidal oscillations in the Earth’s rotational speed, the evolution of synoptic processes in the atmosphere, atmospheric circulation regimes and time variations in hydrometeorological characteristics showed that the majority of types of synoptic processes in the atmosphere vary synchronously with the tidal oscillations in the Earth’s rotational speed (Sidorenkov, 2002, 2009). Using historical data, we checked how often the extrema (minima or maxima) of the angular velocity ν coincide with the times of restructuring of elementary synoptic processes (ESPs) according to the typology proposed by G.Ya. Vangengeim (1935). Statistical analysis showed that, in 76% of cases, the times of the extrema of the angular velocity ν coincide within ±1 day with the dates of ESP restructuring. In 24% of cases, the times of the extrema of ν differ by 2 days or more from the nearest dates of ESP restructuring (Sidorenko, 2000, 2002). 

The long-term comparative monitoring of variations in meteorological characteristics in Moscow, Vladivostok, etc., with the pattern of tidal fluctuations in the Earth’s rotational speed ν (similar to those shown in Fig. 2) clearly confirms the conclusion that the weather variations coincide with the quasi-weekly extrema of ν (see the website: http://geoastro.ru). The changes in the weather regimes coincide with the extrema of the tidal oscillations in the rotational speed ν. It is evident from all the above that the changes in the synoptic processes in the atmosphere are synchronized with the tidal oscillations in Earth’s rotational speed ν.
 
Changes in weather occur near the extrema of the tidal oscillations in the Earth’s rotational speed, which correspond to the times of lunstices (standstills of the moon) and lunar equinoxes. Similar to the 3-month seasons of the year, which are associated with the Earth’s revolution around the Sun, weather regimes have a kind of quasi-weekly weather seasons. The quantization of weather regimes was first described by B.P. Mul’tanovskii in 1915 (1933), who called them natural synoptic periods (NSPs). Thus, the NSPs are due to the monthly revolution of the Earth and Moon around their barycenter. Weather responds to the times of lunstices and lunar equinoxes. In contrast to the solar seasons, lunar NSPs are unstable: they vary from 4 to 9 days, with an average duration of 6.8 days. These variations are caused by the frequency modulation of the oscillations in tidal forces due to the motion of the lunar orbit perigee. The plots of the tidal oscillations of ν provide an NSP “timetable,” demonstrating that the NSP durations do not vary randomly. Unfortunately, studies are still being published that incorrectly consider the NSP dynamics in the format of Brownian motion. 

The most convincing evidence of the influence of lunar tides on atmospheric processes is the spectra of the equatorial components of the atmospheric angular momentum h1 + ih2 (Fig. 3) in the celestial reference frame (CRF) (Sidorenkov, 2009, 2010; Sidorenkov et al., 2014). In Fig. 3, one can clearly see in the intramonthly part of the spectrum the high line of the fortnightly oscillation 13.6 days. 
The narrowness of the line suggests [the] stability [of] the oscillation period [is high]. 

The width of the spectral peak of the roughly quarter-monthly, or weekly, frequency in Fig. 3 indicates the instability of the period and the high power of the quasi-weekly waves, whose period fluctuates from 4 to 9 days. These lunar tidal waves are manifested in weather as Mul’tanovskii NSPs. 

Why have none of the experts on atmospheric tides identified the quasi-weekly and fortnightly oscillations? The reason is that they all use the rotating terrestrial reference frame (TRF), wherein hydrometeorological and hydrophysical characteristics are always measured relative to the stationary terrestrial surface, although the TRF axes rotate with an angular velocity of Ω (1 cycle/day). The waves of gravitational tides revolve at very low velocities μ. When analyzing the measurement results, their angular velocities μ merge with the huge angular velocity of the daily thermal tide wave –Ω (the minus sign is due to the rotation of the thermal tidal wave from east to west) and become virtually invisible for research: μ – Ω ≈ –Ω. 

For low-frequency waves of gravitational tides not to be lost in the analysis, one needs to eliminate the angular velocity of the Earth’s rotation Ω, i.e., demodulate the time series of the terrestrial measurements, thus making a transition from the terrestrial (TRF) to the stationary celestial (CRF) reference frame (Sidorenkov, 2009, 2010; Sidorenkov et al., 2014). In this case, the frame axes, as well as the terrestrial surface, are stationary. After the demodulation, the aggregate tidal wave changes not only its velocity but also its direction of motion. Before demodulation, the aggregate tidal wave moves from east to west with an angular velocity of μ – Ω ≈ –Ω ≈ 360°/days
and, after demodulation, it moves from west to east with a velocity of the Moon’s proper motion: ~13°/days. The directions and velocities of the proper motion of tidal waves coincide with those of atmospheric disturbances, and there is synchronization between them (see (Sidorenkov and Sumerova, 2010, 2012) and the website: http://geoastro.ru). 

It is believed that the effects of gravitational tides must be uniform on global spatial scales. Our longterm experience shows that, at the times of the extrema of tidal forces, there are changes almost everywhere in the Earth’s spheres, but the signs and phases of these changes are different everywhere. In the same way that every port in the world ocean has its own establishment to calculate the maximum high tide, the manifestations of lunisolar tides in the atmosphere are local. The reason is that, when moving in the atmosphere, the tidal waves (which are up to 28 000 in number in modern expansions of the tidal potential) are reflected from orographic obstacles, as well as baric and thermal inhomogeneities, and interfere with one another to create a variegated interference pattern. Based on the studies of oceantides, the atmosphere may have nodal amphidromic points (at which the tide height is zero at any point in time), where there are no tidal oscillations, and antinodes, where tides are amplified by an order of magnitude.

Monday, February 25, 2019

North Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November 2013

A summary/analysis post will follow this one. Please read the earlier posts  here:

2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November

2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November

2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November

2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November

References:

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2013_Atlantic_hurricane_season
2. Sidorenkov, N.S., 2009: The Interaction Between Earth’s Rotation and Geophysical Processes, Weinheim: Wiley.
3. NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Reports -  2013 Hurricane Season

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2013&basin=atl


CLAIM

Tropical depressions or storms that appear in the Atlantic Ocean between the Equator and 25.0 degrees North during the North Atlantic Hurricane season, will do so on dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity of the Earth's rotation. [N.B. the dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity occur close to the times when the Moon crosses the Earth's equator or reaches lunar standstill (i.e. the Moon is furthest north or south of the Equator).]   

Of the 15 events in the 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane Season, 

a) 13 Tropical Depressions/Tropical Storms/Hurricanes support the claim above. 

i) 0 to 25 degrees_________Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, TD7 ?, TD8, Humberto, Igred, Jerry, Karen

ii) Extratropical (> 25 degrees)____Andrea, Lorenzo, Melissa

b) 2 Tropical Depressions/Tropical Storms/Hurricanes definitely DO NOT support the above claim. 

i) 0 to 25 degrees_________Ferdinand

ii) Extratropical (> 25 degrees)____Garielle


KEY FOR FIGURES

KW = Kelvin Wave
L = Low Pressure
TD = Tropical Depression
STS = Sub-Tropical Storm
TS = Tropical Storm
CATN = Category N Hurricane  where N = 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5.
PK = Peak Activity 

JUNE


JULY


AUGUST


SEPTEMBER


OCTOBER


NOVEMBER



Sunday, February 24, 2019

North Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November 2014


2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November

2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November

2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season - June to November

References:

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2014_Atlantic_hurricane_season
2. Sidorenkov, N.S., 2009: The Interaction Between Earth’s Rotation and Geophysical Processes, Weinheim: Wiley.
3. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2014&basin=atl
4. Brown, D.B., 2015, NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report - Hurricane Gonzalo - AL082014, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL082014_Gonzalo.pdf
5. Bevan II, J.L., 2015, NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report - Tropical Storm Dolly - AL052014, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL052014_Dolly.pdf


Here are Some Details About the Buildup of North Atlantic Storms and Hurricanes.

1. Hurricane Gonzalo - 12th to 19th October 2014

The NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report on Hurricane Gonzalo 
(AL082014) states the following about the buildup of this meteorological event.

"The development of Gonzalo can be traced to a tropical wave that departed the west coast of Africa on 4 October. The wave was accompanied by a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms while it moved westward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. During this time, an upper-level trough over the subtropical eastern and central Atlantic produced strong upper-level westerly winds over the system, which prevented development. Showers and thunderstorms associated with the wave became more concentrated after the passage of an eastward-moving atmospheric Kelvin wave around 10 October. Shortly thereafter, the tropical wave passed west of the upper-level trough- axis and into an area of less hostile wind conditions, and a small surface low-pressure area formed late on 11 October. Thunderstorm activity associated with system increased in organization, and it is estimated that a tropical depression formed around 0000 UTC 12 October about 340 n mi east of the Leeward Islands."

2. Tropical Storm Dolly - 1st to 3rd September 2014

The NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report on Tropical Strom Dolly
(AL052014) states the following about the buildup of this meteorological event.

"Dolly originated from a tropical wave that moved westward from the coast of Africa on 19
August. The wave showed little distinction until it reached the eastern Caribbean Sea on 27
August, at which time the associated convection increased. Addition development was slow until
30 August, when the convection became better organized during possible interaction with an
eastward-moving atmospheric Kelvin wave. A low-pressure area formed on 31 August over the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the associated circulation and convection became better
organized on 1 September when the low reached the Bay of Campeche. It is estimated that a
tropical depression developed near 1800 UTC that day about 295 n mi east-southeast of Tampico,
Mexico." 

My Response

These two quotes show that some potential North Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms begin their lives as a wave-like disturbance in the near-equatorial North Atlantic Ocean that move west towards the Carribean and North America. At some point in their journey, the showers and thunderstorms associated with these wave-like disturbances become more concentrated and more organized, leading to the formation of either tropical lows (L) or depressions (TD).

In addition, the two quotes point out that the increasing concentration and organization of the shower and thunderstorm activity associated with these disturbances comes about through their interaction with east-ward moving atmospheric (equatorial) Kelvin waves (EKWs).

I have proposed that the easterly propagating (equatorial) Kelvin waves are generated when:

the peak in the lunar-induced tides passes through the local meridian at either 4:00 a.m. or 4:00 p.m. local time when the diurnal surface pressure is a minimum (Note: this takes place roughly once every quarter of a synodic month = 7.38 days).

http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2019/02/the-lunar-tidal-model-part-4.html

In addition, I have proposed that, whenever the peak of the Moon's tidal bulge crosses the Earth's equator* or whenever it reaches its maximum distance from the Earth's equator i.e. lunar standstill* (Note: this takes place roughly once every quarter of a lunar Tropical month = 6.83 days), tropical low-pressure cells are formed in the (near-equatorial) tropical oceans. In the Atlantic Ocean, these lows are generated as westerly-moving Equatorial Rossby waves that are spawned from the trailing edge of the easterly-propagating (equatorial) Kelvin waves.


[*NOTE: At these times there is an ebb (i.e. either a tidal minimum or maximum) in the lunar-induced atmospheric/oceanic tides at the Earth's equator. It is also at these times that the lunar-induced changes to the Earth's relative angular velocity (Delta Omega/Omega) reach a maximum or a minimum.]

Bottom Line: If the NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report mentions that the formation of a tropical low, depression or storm was influenced by an interaction with an easterly-propagating Kelvin Waves, it will be noted in all future figures.

Note: If the NOAA National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report indicates that the origin of the tropical low, depression or storm was Non-tropical, this will be noted, as well.

CLAIM

Tropical depressions or storms that appear in the Atlantic Ocean between the Equator and 25.0 degrees North during the North Atlantic Hurricane season, will do so on dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity of the Earth's rotation. [N.B. the dates that are maxima or minima in the lunar-induced changes in the relative angular velocity occur close to the times when the Moon crosses the Earth's equator or reaches lunar standstill (i.e. the Moon is furthest north or south of the Equator).]   

Of the Ten events in the 2014 North Atlantic Hurricane Season, 

a) Eight Tropical Depressions/Tropical Storms/Hurricanes support the above claim. 

i) 0 to 25 degrees_________Bertha, Christobal?, Dolly, Edouard, Gonzalo, Hanna, Hanna (Regenerated)

ii) Extratropical (> 25 degrees)____Arthur

b) Two Tropical Depressions/Tropical Storms/Hurricanes definitely DO NOT support the above claim. 

i) 0 to 25 degrees_________TD 2 (weak)

ii) Extratropical (> 25 degrees)____Fay

[Note: There is some question about Christobal]

KEY FOR FIGURES


KW = Kelvin Wave
L = Low Pressure
TD = Tropical Depression
TS = Tropical Storm
CATN = Category N Hurricane  where N = 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5.
PK = Peak Activity 

 
JUNE



JULY



AUGUST



SEPTEMBER



OCTOBER



NOVEMBER

There were no North Atlantic tropical depressions, storms or hurricanes in November.