Is the Next Big Westerly Wind Burst On Its Way?

Hypothesis: During periods leading up the onset of El Nino events, nascent Typhoon/Cyclone pairs associated with the active phase of Madden Julian Oscillations are reinforced either at or 1-2 days after the maxima or minima in the Earth's rotation rate that are induced by the monthly lunar tides.


Information on the progress of the latest MJO that started on 02/12/2018
[As of 09/12/2018]

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ - last accessed at 7:00 P.M. EAST 09/12/2018

This figure shows that on the 02-12-2018 the new MJO was just moving into phase 1 and that by the 09-12-2018 it was starting to progress into phase 3 [see the locations marked on the left of the diagram above].

The current maxima & minima in the lunar-induced deviations in the Earth's rotation rate.
 

The next figure shows the deviations in the Earth's angular velocity that are specifically induced by the lunar tides for the month of December 2018. Marked this plot are the angular velocities for the 02nd and 9th of December. Both occur on dates that are at, or just after, the dates of maxima or minima in the angular velocity.

  

Sidorenkov, N.S., 2009: The Interaction Between Earth’s Rotation and Geophysical Processes, Weinheim: Wiley.

What are the surface winds doing around the times of Max/Min in the angular velocity?

1. 01/02-12-2018

The next two figures show the surface winds of the Equatorial Indan and West Pacific Oceans for the 01-12-2018 and the 02-12-2018 [both at 06 UT]. Comparing these two figures shows that on the 2nd of December a nascent Typhoon/Cyclon pair develops in the region associated with MJO phase 1 (i.e. the far western equatorial Indian ocean).

https://earth.nullschool.net/

2. 08/09-12-2018

The next two figures show the surface winds of the Equatorial Indan and West Pacific Oceans for the 08-12-2018 and the 09-12-2018 [both at 06 UT]. Comparing these two figures shows that on the 9th of December a nascent Typhoon/Cyclon pair [with its accompanying WWBs] develops in the region associated with MJO phase 3 (i.e. between islands of Sri Lanka and Sumatra).  

https://earth.nullschool.net/

If the hypothesis is correct [N.B. this prediction is based upon the assumption that the current MJO event does not stall but penetrates into the equatorial western Pacific ocean], it predicts that a nascent Typhoon/Cyclone pair [with its accompanying WWBs] will develop somewhere between the islands of Sulawesi [MJO phase 5] and the Solomons [MJO phase 6] between the 18th and 20th of December 2018.