Predicting the Start of the Next El Niño Event.

I predict that the next moderate to strong El Niño event should start
in mid-to-late 2019 

UPDATED 14/11/2018

                           31-Year Perigean New/Full Moon Epoch 6: 1994 to 2025

El Nino events start when the strongest Perigean New/Full Moons are crossing the Earth's Equator.

                                     31-Year Perigean New/Full Moon Epoch 5: 1963 to 1994

El Nino events start when the strongest Perigean New/Full Moons are near lunar standstill.

[For details on these graphs see below]

In a series of blog posts in November 2014:

http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com/2014/11/evidence-that-strong-el-nino-events-are_13.html

I showed that between 1870 and 2025, the precise alignments between the lunar synodic [phase] cycle and the 31/62 year Perigean New/Full moon cycle, naturally breaks up into six 31-year epochs each of which has a distinctly different tidal property. Note that the second of these 31-year intervals starts with the precise alignment on the 15th of April 1870, with the subsequent epoch boundaries occurring every 31 years after that:

Epoch 1 - Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 3 - 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 5 - 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994
Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025

I claimed that if the 31/62-year seasonal tidal cycle plays a role in sequencing the triggering of El Niño events, it would be reasonable to expect that its effects for the following three epochs:

New Moon Epoch:
Epoch 1 - Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 3 - 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 5 - 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994

should be noticeably different to its effects for these three epochs:

Full Moon Epochs:
Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025

In addition, I showed that:

Moderate-to-strong El Niño events in the New Moon epochs preferentially occur near times when the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the Sun at the times of the Solstices. Note that this is equivalent to saying that moderate to strong El Niño in New Moon Epochs preferentially occur near times the strongest Perigean New/Full moons are near lunar standstill.

Moderate-to-strong El Niño events in the Full Moon epochs preferentially occur near times when the lunar line-of-apse aligns with the Sun at the times of the Equinoxes. Note that this is equivalent to saying that moderate to strong El Niño in Full Moon Epochs preferentially occur near times the strongest Perigean New/Full moons are crossing the Earth's equator.

Firstly, the following graph shows the astronomical declination of the strongest Perigean New/Full moon between 1962 and 1997 (solid blue line)(1). These are the strongest lunar tidal events during the 5th (New moon) Epoch that spans the period between the 23rd of April 1963 and the 25th of April 1994. The declinations of strongest Perigean New/Full moons reach their maximum distance from the Celestial Equator once every 4.425 (= 8.850 / 2) tropical years, as a result of the slow prograde precession of the lunar line-of-apse with respect to the stars.

Secondly, the graph shows the declination at which the Moon reaches lunar standstill near the times of the strongest Perigean New/Full moon events (dashed red lines).

Finally, the graph shows the months that are associated with moderate-to-strong El Nino events between 1962 and 1996 [histograms]. These months have been determined by Smith and Sardeshmukh [2000] (2) using a Bivariate ENSO Time Series (BEST) index that effectively combines the atmospheric component of the ENSO (i.e. the SOI index) with the oceanic component (i.e Nino 3.4 SST anomaly index). [Note that the less stringent list of El Nino months from Smith and Sardeshmukh (2000) are adopted here. The less stringent list uses 0.96 standard deviation cut-off rather than 1.28 (3),(4)]

A comparison between the timing of El Niño months and the times at which the strongest Perigean New/Full moons approach lunar standstill, clearly show close alignments for eight out of ten of the moderate-to-strong El Niño events. This is in agreement with the findings of my earlier 2014 blog post regarding New Moon Epochs. 

[N.B. The two moderate El Niño events in 1963/64 and 1993 that do not follow this pattern, occur right near the boundaries of New Moon Epoch 5 where a transition is being made between New and Full Moon Epochs. These two El Nino events appear to be part of the sequences associated with the Full Moon Epochs (i.e. epoch 4 and 6) which occur when the strongest Perigean New/Full moon events are close to the Celestial Equator.]

Firstly, the next graph shows the astronomical declination of the strongest Perigean New/Full moon between 1992 and 2026 (solid blue line)(1). These are the strongest lunar tidal events during the 6th (Full moon) Epoch that spans the period between the 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025.

Secondly, the graph shows the declination at which the Moon reaches lunar standstill near the times of the strongest Perigean New/Full moon events (dashed red lines).

Finally, the graph shows the months that are associated with moderate-to-strong El Niño events between 1992 and 2018 [histograms]. These months have been determined by Smith and Sardeshmukh [2000] (2) using a Bivariate ENSO Time Series (BEST) index that effectively combines the atmospheric component of the ENSO (i.e. the SOI index) with the oceanic component (i.e Niño 3.4 SST anomaly index). [Note that the less stringent list of El Nino months from Smith and Sardeshmukh (2000) are adopted here. The less stringent list uses 0.96 standard deviation cut-off rather than 1.28 (3),(4)]

A comparison between the timing of El Niño months and the times at which the strongest Perigean New/Full moons cross the Earth's Equator, clearly show close alignments for six out of eight of the moderate-to-strong El Niño events. Again, this is in agreement with the findings of my earlier 2014 blog post regarding Full Moon Epochs. 

[N.B. Most of the moderate El Niño events that do not follow the Full Moon Epoch pattern, such as that in 1994/95, occur near the boundaries between  New Moon and Full Moon Epochs [in this case Epochs 5 and 6]. The other exception to the rule in Epoch 6 in the El Niño event in 2004/05 which appears to be a temporary re-emergence of the Epoch 5  El Niño sequence.]

The Epoch 6 graph indicates that the next  El Niño event should start sometime around the mid-to-late-2019. Though it has to be admitted that there is some uncertainty associated with the precise timing of this prediction. 

References:

[1] JPL Horizons Web Interface Ephemeris - https://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/horizons.cgi#top - last accessed 14/10/2018

[2] Smith, C.A. and P. Sardeshmukh, 2000, The Effect of ENSO on the Intraseasonal Variance of Surface Temperature in Winter, International J. of Climatology, 20 1543-1557.

[3] http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/cathy.smith/best/
[4] http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/cathy.smith/best/table33.txt