Saturday, May 7, 2016

Are we looking in the wrong place for the connection between solar insolation and the world's mean temperature?

I propose that it is the lunar tidal modulation of the seasonal variations in the solar flux, coupled with the hemispherical asymmetry of the Earth’s surface properties (i.e. Nth Hemisphere – dominated by continents, St Hemisphere – dominated by oceans) that is responsible for setting the world's mean temperature.

On inter-annual time scales:

There are periodic slow downs in the Earth’s rotation rate every 13.66 days. These slows downs are caused by the passage of the lunar tidal bulge across the Earth’s equator once every half lunar tropical month = 13. 66 days. The ratio in the magnitude of the increase in Length Of Day (LOD) at one crossing with respect to the magnitude of the increase in LOD at the next is primarily governed by the orientation of the lunar line-of-apse with respect to the seasonal cycle as marked by the solstices and equinoxes (there is also a secondary effect caused by the 5 degree tilt of lunar obit with respect to the ecliptic). Please see:

On decadal time scales:

The climate variation is driven by the ratio in strength and frequency of El Nino to La Nina events – This is dominated by the 31/62 year lunar tidal cycle. For 31 years, El Ninos start in years when lunar line-of-apse is pointed at the Sun near the Winter/Summer solstices, then for next 31 years, El Ninos start in years when lunar line-of-apse is pointed at the Sun near the Vernal/Autumnal equinoxes.

On centennial to millennial time scales:

The climate variation appear to be correlated with variations in the overall strength of the Sun’s magnetic field as indicated by Be10 and C14 proxies. These primarily occur at 88.5 years (Gleissberg cycle), 208 years (de Vries Cycle), 354 years, 510 years, 708 years, 980 years (Eddy Cycle) and 2300 years (Hallstatt Cycle). It just so happens that these cycles in the Sun’s magnetic field strength are matched by the times at which the lunar line-of-apse points at the Sun at either the solstices or equinoxes of the Earth’s seasonal calendar (in a reference frame that is fixed with respect to the Earth’s orbit).

This produces a long term 21,000 year climate forcing which when coupled with the Milankovitch orbital forcing and the formation and melting of ice sheets at the Earth’s poles, produces the ice-age cycles.

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