Saturday, December 5, 2015

Solar Terrestrial Climate Weave

Here is a modified plot of Paul Vaughan's Solar Terrestrial Climate Weave of volatility (i.e. either standard deviation or variance) of some, as yet, unspecified variable. Clearly, Paul finds that there is a seasonal pattern in the variance of this unspecified variable that repeats itself once every 11 years i.e. it changes phase by 180 degrees roughly every 5.5 years (2 x 5.5  = 11.0 years).    

It would really help if Paul indicated the nature of the variable whose variance (or standard deviation) he is measuring so that others could share in this important [long-standing] discovery.  


  1. My best guess is that it is the LOD (or its derivative) as the data starts in 1962. This is the year in which high quality LOD data became available.

  2. How Paul Vaughan is able to generate this plot from LOD data is a mystery. A Surface plot of Z axis LOD and with day of year versus year on the XY axis clearly show the biannual oscillation but a phase change in each quarter over time is not evident. What is the treatment of the data that gives this pattern?

  3. If you take a thirty day trailing averaged of LOD from Jan 1962 to November 2015 to get rid of the noise, you can geta five cosine fit of R^2= 90% using the following frequencies, 0.5 yr, 1.0 yr, 18.01449344 yrs SEV, 22.1392998 yrs JEV and 176.3/2 yrs. You can get R^2=89% using four cosines replacing SEV & JEV with the harmonic mean of SEV and JEV. Clearly there is not enough data to justify the 176.3/2 yrs or that the correlation is anything more than curve fitting but it is interesting none the less.

  4. To continue: The above cosine fit was a wild uninformed guess at contributors to the LOD. If the five frequencies are allowed to vary to the best fit, which is R^2=95%, the results are 1.00028132, 0.500009222, 13.3633696, 20.9893984, and 71.7148728. Someone may get an brain wave from these values.

  5. The so called noise in comment one is caused by the moon.
    Whether the 13.6 and 27.3 day cycle moving through time is the cause of PV's solar terrestrial weave, I don't know.

  6. Re: Modulation of Ice Ages via Precession and Dust-Albedo Feedbacks

    A new paper demonstrating that the primary feedback involved
    in ice age and interglacial modulation is dusty-ice albedo.

    Academia .edu link
    Modulation of Ice Ages via Precession and Dust-Albedo Feedbacks