The Planetary-Lunar-Climate Connection

                                           2008 Paper

http://www.wbabin.net/Science-Journals/Research%20Papers-Astrophysics/Download/3811

                                                ABSTRACT

Evidence is presented to show that the phases of two of the Earth’s major climate systems, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), are related to changes in the Earth’s rotation rate. We find that the winter NAO index depends upon the time rate of change of the Earth’s length of day (LOD). In addition, we find that there is a remarkable correlation between the years where the phase of the PDO is most positive and the years where the deviation of the Earth’s LOD from its long-term trend is  greatest.

In order to prove that the variations in the NAO and PDO indices are caused by changes in the Earth’s rotation rate, and not the other way around, we show that there is a strong correlation between the times of maximum deviation of the Earth’s LOD from its long-term trend and the times where there are abrupt asymmetries in the motion of the Sun about the CM of the Solar System.

At first glance, there does not appear to be an obvious physical phenomenon that would link the Sun’s motion about the Solar System’s CM to the Earth’s rotation rate. However, such a link could occur if the rate of precession of the line-of-nodes of the Moon’s orbit were synchronized with orbital periods of Terrestrial planets and Jupiter, which in turn would have to be synchronized with the orbital periods of the three remaining Jovian planets. In this case, the orbital periods of the Jovian planets, which cause the asymmetries in the Sun’s motion about the CM, would be synchronized with a phenomenon that is known to cause variations in the Earth’s rotation rate, namely the long term lunar tides.

The periodicities seen in the asymmetry of the solar motion about the CM are all submultiples of the 179 year Jose cycle, with the dominant periods being 1/5 (= 35.87 yrs), 1/9 (= 19.86 yrs) and 1/14 (12.78 yrs). In addition, the realignment time for the orbits of Venus, Earth and Jupiter is a ¼ of the 179 year Jose cycle (= 44.77 yrs).

Through what appears to be a “Grand Cosmic Conspiracy” we find that:

6.393 yrs = (the 179 year repetition cycle of the Solar motion about the CM) / 28

6.396 yrs = (the 44.77 year realignment time for Venus, Earth, and Jupiter) / 7

which just happens to be realignment time for orbits of the planets Venus, Earth and Mars (= 6.40 yrs).

The significance of the 6.40 year repetition period is given added weight by the fact that if you use it to modulate the sidereal year of the Earth/Moon system, the side-lobe period that is produced, almost perfectly matches the 2nd harmonic time interval over which there are the greatest changes in the meridional and zonal tidal stresses acting upon the Earth (1 ¼ TD = 433.2751 days = 1.18622 years, where TD is the draconitic year).

We know that the strongest planetary tidal forces acting on the lunar orbit come from the planets Venus, Mars and Jupiter. In addition, we known that, over the last 4.6 billion years, the Moon has slowly receded from the Earth. During the course of this lunar recession, there have been times when the orbital periods of Venus, Mars and Jupiter have been in resonance(s) with the precession rate for the line-of-nodes the lunar orbit. When these resonances have occurred, they would have greatly amplified the effects of the planetary tidal forces upon the lunar orbit. Hence, the observed synchronization between the precession rate of the line-of-nodes of the lunar orbit and the orbital periods of Venus, Earth, Mars and Jupiter, could simply be a cumulative fossil record left behind by these historical resonances.

Where is the rush of [FeXIV] emission to the Sun's poles?

Here is an interesting plot which asks a very pertinent question about Solar cycle 24. Where is the cycle 24 [FeXIV] emission that usually reaches the Sun's pole around about the time of solar maximum? Is this an indicator that we still have a few years to wait till solar maximum or is it just telling us that cycle 24 will have a very weak maximum?

Reference:  http://www.boulder.swri.edu/~deforest/SPD-sunspot-release/6_altrock_rttp.pdf

THE WORLD MEAN TEMPERATURE WARMS(/COOLS)  IF THE IMPACT OF EL NINOS EXCEEDS(/DOES NOT EXCEED) THE IMPACT OF LA NINAS OVER A GIVEN EPOCH.

Distinct Epochs in the Earth's Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and the Earth Rotation

A. The above graph is part of Figure 2.1. from Klyashtorin, L.B., Climate Change and Long-Term Fluctuations of Commercial  Catches - The Possibility of Forecasting, FAO Fisheries Technical Paper No. 410, Rome FAO, 2001.

It shows the close correlation between the rotation rate of the Earth (measured by the Length-of-Day) and the zonal component of the Atmospheric Circulation Index (ACI). This graph shows that the zonal circulation patterns evident in the Earth's atmosphere can be broken up into four 30 year epochs starting in the years 1880-85 [LOD curve only], 1905-1910, 1940-1945 and 1970-1975.  

B. The above graph comes from figure 2.2 of Klyashtorin, L.B., Climate Change and Long-Term Fluctuations of Commercial  Catches - The Possibility of Forecasting, FAO Fisheries Technical Paper No. 410, Rome FAO, 2001.

The above graph shows that if you shift the LOD curve forward by ~ 6 years you get an excellent fit between LOD curve and the de-trended world mean temperature anomaly. Again the overall pattern can be broken up into four distinct 30 year epoch starting in the years 1880, 1910, 1940 and 1970.

C. The above graph comes from figure 2.23 of Klyashtorin, L.B., Climate Change and Long-Term Fluctuations of Commercial  Catches - The Possibility of Forecasting, FAO Fisheries Technical Paper No. 410, Rome FAO, 2001.

The above graph shows that if you shift the ACI curve forward by ~ 4 years you get an excellent fit between LOD curve and the de-trended world mean temperature anomaly (dT). Again the overall pattern can be broken up into three distinct 30 year epoch starting in the years 1910, 1940 and 1970. The ACI index does not extend far enough back to set a starting date for the first epoch but the dT and LOD curves suggest a date sometime around 1875 to 1880.

The (Extended) Multivariate ENSO Index

The Multivariate ENSO Index is defined at the NOAA web site located at:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

The Extended Multivariate ENSO Index is defined at the NOAA web site located at:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.ext/index.html

The important point to note is that Multivariate ENSO Index is the most precise way to follow variations in the ENSO phenomenon:


Negative values of the MEI represent the cold ENSO phase, a.k.a. La Niña, while positive MEI values represent the warm ENSO phase (El Niño).

The Cumulative Sum of the MEI

If the cumulative sum of the MEI over a given epoch steadily increase throughout the epoch then the impact of El Ninos exceed the impact of the La Ninas over this epoch.

 If the cumulative sum of the MEI over a given epoch steadily decrease throughout the epoch then the impact of La Ninas exceed the impact of the El Ninos over this epoch.  

The dotted red line in the above graph shows the cumulative sum of the extended Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) between the years 1880 and 2000 A.D. The cumulative sum has been taken over each of the four 30 year epochs, starting in the years 1880, 1910, 1940, and 1970.

The solid blue line in the above graph shows the cumulative sum of the extended Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) between the years 1886 and 2006 A.D. The cumulative sum has been taken over each of the four 30 year epochs, staring in the years 1886, 1916, 1946, and 1976.

It is clearly evident from this plot that whenever the cumulative MEI index is systematically decreasing over a 30 year epoch i.e. between 1886 and 1915, and between 1946 and 1975, the world's mean temperature decreases. It is also evident that whenever the cumulative MEI index is systematically increasing over a 30 year epoch i.e. between 1916 and 1945, and between 1976 and 2005, the world's mean temperature increases.

CONCLUSIONS

1. The ratio of the impact of El Ninos to the impact of La Ninas upon climate can be monitored over multi-decadal time scales using the cumulative MEI.

2. The cumulative MEI shows that since roughly 1880 there have been four main climate epochs, each 30 years long. There are have been two 30 year periods of cooling (i.e. from 1886 to 1915, and from 1946 to 1975) and two 30 year peiods of heating (i.e. from 1916 to 1945, and from 1976 to 2005).

3. Periods of warming occur whenever the impact of El Ninos exceeds the impact of La Ninas. Periods of cooling occur whenever the impact of La Ninas exceed the impact of El Ninos.

El Niños and Extreme Proxigean Spring Tides

Click here to see the video of my lecture at the Natural Climate Change Symposium in Melbourne on the 17th of June 2009

§Thanks to Bob Tisdale, we now know that the effect of El-Niño’s upon global temperature have been underestimated.

§The El Niño’s seems to be an important player in the recent rapid warming of the worlds temperatures between 1976 & 2005.

§But what if extreme tides caused by the Moon play a role in triggering El Niño[/La Niña]  events?

The are five conditions that must be met if the Earth is to experience the most extreme tidal events known as Extreme Proxigean Spring Tides:

A. When the Earth, Moon and Sun all align. These extremes in the tides are known as Spring Tides, occurring twice per month at New and Full Moon. 

B. When the line-of-apse of the lunar orbit (connecting the points of perigee and apogee in the lunar orbit) align with the Sun (as seen from Earth) at New and Full Moon. 

New Moon at perigee reoccurs once every 20.293 years. Of course, it takes half this time i.e. 10.147 years to go from a New Moon at perigee to a Full Moon at perigee. These types of extreme tides are known as Perigean Spring Tides. 

[Note: technically, the term Perigean spring tides refers to slightly strong tides that are experienced when a New Moon is at perigee , however, the tides experienced when the Moon is at Full and at Perigee are almost equally as strong]

C. The strength of Perigean Spring Tides are enhanced by the fact that not all perigees are the same. The following graph shows that the Perigean distance of the Moon varies between roughly 370,000 and 356,000 km. If the Perigean Spring Tides occur when the Moon is at closest perigee (i.e. at or near to 356,000 km), they become known as Proxigean Spring Tides.

D. When the line-of-nodes (connecting the ascending and descending nodes of the lunar orbit) align with the Sun, as seen from the Earth, at times of New and Full Moon. If these types of alignments occur at or near the times of Perigean Spring Tides [often associated with solar and lunar eclipses], it further enhances the strength of these tidal event. 

 If the line-of-nodes of the Lunar orbit points along the Earth-Sun line at New moon, it will take 3.796 years for a New Moon to reoccur under the same circumstances. Of course, it takes half this time i.e. 1.898 years to go from a New Moon when the line-of-nodes are aligned with the Earth-Sun line, to a Full Moon under the same conditions.

E.  The last factor that enhances Proxigean Spring Tides is the proximity of the Earth/Moon system to the Sun. Clearly, since roughly 1/3 of the Solar/Lunar tides are caused by the Sun, any tidal event will be stronger if it occurs at or near the Earth's/Moon's closets approach to the Sun. This occurs on January 3rd at a point in the Earth's orbit known as Perihelion. Any Proxigean Spring Tide that occurs at or near an alignment of the line-of-nodes of the lunar orbit, will be further enhanced if it occurs at or near Perihelion. These type of tides are known as Extreme Proxigean Spring Tides.     

It is important to note that if a new Moon (or Full Moon) occurs at Perihelion, it will do so again once every 4.00, 15.00 and 19.00 Tropical years.

What happens when we take the seven major forcing periods for the Extreme Proxigean Spring Tides i.e. 20.293, 10.147, 3.796, 1.898, 4.00, 15.00 and 19.00 years. If you look at all the beat periods of these terms that are shorter than 7 years, you find that they almost perfectly match the observed peak frequencies observed in the periodogram of the SOI index between 1950 and 1997 (Sidorenkov 2000) 

Extreme tidal effects are known to have an important influence upon the amount of up welling of cool deep ocean water in the world's oceans via deep ocean tidal dissipation.

The amount of power deposited by the Sun and the Moon through deep-ocean tidal dissipation could be as much as 1 Terra-Watt !

This is enough power to drive almost half all the up welling of deep cool ocean water around the world!!

and there is compelling evidence, as well, that shows that Perigean Spring Tides have an impact on the Earth's rotation.

So what does this have to do with the ENSO El Nino/LA Nina phenomenon?

 Well, if you look at the type of Proxigean Tides that occur in the year of or the year prior to the onset of all significant El Niño events between 1800 and 1987, you find that only the most extreme of these events occur at this time. 

The following two diagrams are designed to place the most extreme Proxigean Spring Tides in the bottom right hand corner and the weakest Proxigean Spring Tides in the top left hand corner. The day of year, starting on April the 1st (no joke intended here), is shown along the X-axis. This starting date has been chosen so that Perihelion occurs on or about day 278, placing it on the right hand side of the diagram. Along the Y-axis, we have the number of minutes an eclipsing New or Full Moon occurs before or after perigee. This axis has been chosen to ensure that strongest alignment between the Earth-Sun line, the line-of-nodes, and the line-of-apses occurs near the bottom of the diagram.     

During years that DO NOT coincide with the year of or the year prior to the onset of all significant El Niño events between 1800 and 1987, you get systematically weaker proxigean tidal events.

CONCLUSIONS

There is evidence to support the claim that the Perigean Spring Tides affect the Earth's rotation rate. 

Extreme tidal effects are known to have an important influence upon the amount of up welling of cool deep ocean water in the world's oceans via deep ocean tidal dissipation.

The beat periods of the forcing terms of the Extreme Perigean Spring Tides pump the Earth at frequencies that almost exactly match those that are observed in the periodogram of the SOI index between 1950 and 1997.

There is evidence to support the contention that most extreme lunar tidal events (i.e. the extreme Proxigean Spring Tides) must play a role in triggering the El Niño phenomenon between 1800 and 1987.

The PDO - a signature of the influence of long-term Lunar tides on ocean up whelming

The (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) PDO signature is shown in the bottom two globe projections. The left global projection corresponds to a positive PDO, the right to a negative PDO. Compare both of these to the equipotential tidal surface formed by the 18.6 year Nodal tides.

The Equatorial Pacific Ocean moves up and down by +/- 7 to 8 mm every 18.6 years, in anti-phase to the North Pacific Ocean. It is possible that slow upward and downward movement of the ocean surface may be responsible for periodic up whelming of cool deep-ocean water on bi-decadal (18.6 year) and ~ 55.8 (= 3 x 18.6) year times scales.