Thursday, December 20, 2018

Successfully Predicting Westerly Wind Bursts in the Equatorial Western Pacific Ocean


On the 09th of December, I made a prediction that:

"....that a nascent Typhoon/Cyclone pair [with its accompanying WWBs] will develop somewhere between the islands of Sulawesi [MJO phase 5] and the Solomons [MJO phase 6] between the 18th and 20th of December 2018.

Here is the gradient wind analysis for the West Pacific region issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) for 00 UT on the 20th of December 2018.

Notice that, as predicted, a burst of westerly winds has developed between the low-pressure cells that have developed over the Northern Territory of Australia (N.T.) and to the east of the Philipines.

The predicted westerly wind bursts (WWB) are also visible in the following wind map for the 19th of December 00 hrs UT:


The WWBs started developing sometime between the 17 and 18th of December as a long-pressure cell began forming over the N.T. of Australia, as shown by the following series BOM synoptic charts
covering the period from 17th Dec 00 hrs UT to 20th December 00 hrs UT:

17th Dec

18th Dec

19th Dec

20th Dec

If the hypothesis for a lunar tidal origin for equatorial WWBs is correct, then a further nascent typhoon/cyclone pair should develop further towards the east along the Equator some time between
the 23rd and 25th of December.

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