Another 2013 prediction that the temperatures in SE Australia would be above normal in 2019 - Completely ignored by the Government!

Reference:

Wilson I.R.G. and Sidorenkov N.S., Long-Term Lunar Atmospheric Tides in the Southern Hemisphere. Open Atmos Sci J 2013; 7: 51-76

https://benthamopen.com/contents/pdf/TOASCJ/TOASCJ-7-51.pdf

How long does it take for the egg-shape of the lunar orbit to align with both the phase of the Moon and the annual seasonal cycle?

The 31/62/93/186-Year Perigee-Syzygy Lunar tidal Cycle

If you start out with a new moon at its closest point to the Earth [i.e. closest Perigee] around perihelion [i.e. at the start or end of the annual seasonal cycle], then the Line-of-Apse [representing the longest dimension of the egg-shape of the lunar orbit] must rotate seven times around the Earth with respect to the stars (i.e. 7 x 8.8506 = 61.954 ~ 62.0 tropical years) before a new moon reoccurs at closest Perigee at the same point in the annual seasonal cycle (e.g. perihelion).

Another way of saying this is that a new moon at closest perigee will reoccur at the same point in the annual seasonal cycle (e.g. perihelion), once every three Perigee-Syzygy cycles plus one Full Moon Cycle (i.e. [3 x 20.2937] + 1.1274 = 62.0085 tropical years) or 55 Full Moon Cycles (where 1.0 FMC = 1.1274 years = the time required for the egg shape of the lunar orbit to precisely return to pointing at the Sun).

Hence, if you start out with a new moon at closest perigee at or near the time of perihelion, you will get a Full Moon at closest perigee, on roughly the same day, 31 years later, and a New Moon at closest perigee, on roughly the same day, 62 years after the starting date.

How long does it take for the tilt of the lunar orbit to align with both the phase of the Moon and the annual seasonal cycle?

The 93/186-Year Draconic Cycle

 If you start out with a new moon at the ascending node of the lunar orbit [i.e. the same point in the tilt of the lunar orbit] around Perihelion [i.e. at the start or end of the annual seasonal cycle], then the Line-of-Nodes [representing the tilt of the lunar orbit] must rotate five times around the Earth with respect to the stars (i.e. 5 x 18.5999 = 92.9996 ~ 93.0 tropical years) before it returns to a full moon at the descending node around perihelion.

This means that if you start out with a new moon at or near the time of perihelion that is close to one of the nodes of the lunar orbit and at perigee, 93 tropical years later you will have a full moon that is close to the opposite node and at perigee on roughly the same day of the year. This is true because:

1150.5 lunar synodic months = 33974.9425 days = 93.0203 tropical years
1233 lunar anomalistic months = 33974.7600 days = 93.0198 tropical years and
1248.5 draconic months =33974.4577 days = 93.0190 tropical years.

[N.B. The full tidal cycle is actually 186 years long since it takes this long for the Moon to return to a New Moon phase at a time when it  returns to the same node, at perigee, and at perihelion].

How long does it take for the egg-shape and tilt of the lunar orbit to realign with both the phase of the Moon and the annual seasonal cycle?

 In order to get a sense of the times when the 31/62/93/186-year lunar Perigee-Syzygy cycle and the 93/186-year lunar Draconic Cycle mutually reinforced each other, curves are plotted in Fig. (14) that indicate the strength of alignment between the two cycles between the years 1857 and 2024.

The blue curve in the above figure shows the angle between the line-of-nodes of the lunar orbit (i.e. the tilt of the lunar orbit) and the Earth-Sun line at the time of Perihelion (theta). The curve is derived in such a way as to highlight the southern summers where there is close alignment. This is done by plotting the function 1/(1+ theta). 

Similarly, the brown curve in this figure shows the angle between the line-of-apse of the lunar orbit (i.e. the egg shape of the lunar orbit) and the Earth-Sun line at the time of perihelion (phi) plotted as the function - 1/(1 + phi).  The functions represented by the blue and brown curves in this figure are used to generate the red curve.

The red curve is an alignment index that is designed to represent the level of reinforcement of the 93/186-year Draconic tidal cycle by the 31/62/93/186-year Perigee-Syzygy tidal cycle. This is done by plotting the values of the blue curve at times when there is a close alignment of the line-of-apse and the Earth-Sun line at perihelion (i.e. when phi < 16°).

The red curve shows that are two epochs 1872 to 1917 and 1973 to 2019, each lasting about 45 years, where there is a strong mutual reinforcement of the Draconic tidal cycle by the Perigee-Syzygy tidal cycle. Individual peaks in the mutual reinforcement occur roughly once every 9.3 years and comparable peaks in the two climate epochs are separated from each other by 93 years.

The Mutually Reinforcing Tidal Model

The fact that the Draconic tidal cycle is mutually enhanced by the Perigee-Syzygy tidal cycle has an observable effect upon the climate variables in the South Eastern part of Australia.

The figure below shows the median summer time (December 1st to March 15th) maximum temperature anomaly. This data is obtained from the Australian BOM High-Quality Data Set 2010, by taking the average for the cities of Melbourne (1857 to 2009 – Melbourne Regional Office – Site Number: 086071) and Adelaide (1879 to 2009 – Adelaide West Terrace – Site Number 023000 combined with Adelaide Kent Town – Site Number 023090), between 1857 and 2009 (blue curve).

Superimposed on this figure is the alignment index curve from the previous figure above (red curve).

A comparison between these two curves reveals that on almost every occasion where there has been a strong alignment between the Draconic and Perigee-Syzygy tidal cycles, there has been a noticeable increase in the median maximum summer-time temperature, averaged for the cities of Melbourne and Adelaide.

Hence, the mutual reinforcing tidal model predicts that the median maximum summer-time temperatures in Melbourne and Adelaide should be noticeably above normal during the summer of 2018/19.

A 2013 Prediction of Severe Drought in South-Eastern Australia in 2019, Willfully Ignored by the Australian Government.

The following shows the front page of Dr. Ian R.G. Wilson's submission to the 2013 Australian Senate Committee on Recent Trends in and Preparedness for Extreme Weather Events.

https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Senate/Environment_and_Communications/Completed_inquiries/2010-13/extremeweather/submissions

106	Dr Ian Wilson (PDF 903KB

   

As you can see, there is an unequivocal prediction on the front cover of this report that states that: "South-Eastern Australia needs to prepare for hot dry conditions in the summer of 2019 and possible extensive flooding in 2029".

The Australian Senate and the Australian Government willfully ignored this prediction, leaving it totally unprepared for the terrible suffering of Australia's rural/farming communities bought on by one of the severest droughts in Australian history.

The Australian Government continues to ignore the main conclusions of this submission.   

Predicting the next phase shift in the AMO.

UPDATED 08/04/2019

I predict that the next AMO shift (to a negative phase) will be around 2025 (please see the update below*).

I  showed that between 1870 and 2025, the precise alignments between the lunar synodic [phase] cycle and the 31/62 year Perigean New/Full moon cycle, naturally breaks up into six 31-year epochs each of which has a distinctly different tidal property. Note that the second of these 31-year intervals starts with the precise alignment on the 15th of April 1870, with the subsequent epoch boundaries occurring every 31 years after that:

Epoch 1 - Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 3 - 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 5 - 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994
Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025

*UPDATE:

There is one important caveat to my prediction for the next transition date for the phase change of the AMO.

Wilson, I.R.G. and Sidorenkov, N.S., 2019, A Luni-Solar Connection to Weather and Climate II: Extreme Perigean New/Full Moons & El Niño Events, The General Science Journal, Jan 2019, 7637.
(see page 22)

http://gsjournal.net/Science-Journals/Research%20Papers-Climate%20Studies/Download/7637

A more detailed analysis of the transitional spring tidal events in the Perigean Spring New/Full moon cycles shows that they slowly drift into and then out of alignment with the nominal seasonal boundaries. This means that the end of the epoch that starts in 1994.237 (i.e Epoch 6) may not be in 2025.243 (i.e. 31-year later – see table 2) as the spring tidal events would no longer be in close alignment with the seasonal boundaries.

The most likely outcome is that epoch boundary marked by the strongest spring tidal events that align with the Spring Equinox near 2025.243 (i.e. March 29th 15:15 UT 2025) would move back in time by 4.531 years to a new epoch boundary marked by the strongest spring tidal events that align with the Autumnal Equinox near 2020.712 (i.e. September 17th 17:33 U.T. 2020).

This would produce a series of 31-year epochs (starting with strong spring tides that are aligned with the Autumnal Equinox) in the years 2020, 2051, 2082, 2113, and 2144 that closely match the
series of 31-year epochs (starting with strong spring tides that are aligned with the Spring
Equinox) in the years 1870, 1901, 1932, 1963, and 1994.

Hence, it is possible that the AMO may undergo a transition in its phase (from positive to negative) as early as 2020.

Evidence That the 11-Year Solar Cycle Influences the Strength of the Walker Circulation.

During periods where the La Nina/Neutral mode of the ENSO dominates, the trade winds blow strongly from east to west across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The presence of these strong winds results in a corresponding strengthening of the Walker circulation cell. Note that the trade winds are generally stronger during the La Nina phase compared to the Neutral phase.

During periods where the El Nino mode of the ENSO dominates, the east to west flow of the trade winds across the equatorial Pacific Ocean substantially weaken. This results in a corresponding weakening of the Walker circulation cell.

Let's consider the possibility that the natural forcing factors that produce a La Nina/Neutral mode in the ENSO are not the same as those that produce an El Nino mode. If this is true, then the main interaction between these two phenomena would just be that the presence of one would (by necessity) preclude the presence of the other.

Hence, a more realistic investigation of the factors driving the La Nina/Neutral phenomenon could be carried out if the La Nina/Neutral component of an ENSO index time series could be isolated from its EL Nino component. One such index is the monthly Nino3.4 SST anomaly which exceeds 0.8 C when the ENSO in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is in an El Nino state.

Clearly, there is no easy way to fully isolate the ENSO La Nina/Neutral state, however, it could be crudely done by simply setting all the monthly Nino3.4 SST anomalies above 0.8 C to zero. This would have the gross effect of partially subduing spectral component associated with the El Nino state. In the following, this time series will be referred to as the monthly Nina3.4 SST anomaly.

The top plot in figure 1 (below) shows the monthly Nina3.4 SST anomaly from 1950 to 2017, with all SST anomalies > 0.8 C set to 0.0 C (black curve). The x-axis shows the number of months since the start of 1950.

Superimposed on the top plot in figure 1 is the 11-year component (red curve) obtained from Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) of the monthly Nina3.4 SST anomaly time series (see figure 3 below for the SSA plot). A comparison between the red and black curves shows that, except for a brief period around 1955 (i.e. ~ 65 months), the 11-year SSA component seems to match the smoothed long-term variations of the monthly Nina3.4 SST anomaly data.

The bottom plot in figure 1 shows the monthly sunspot number (SSN) between 1950 and 2017, also plotted against the number of months since 1950. As you can see, there is a good phase match between the 11-year SSA spectral component and the 11-year cycle in the SSN.

Note that the data in figure 1 implies that there is a weakening (or slow down) of the Walker Circulation at times near solar maximum. This is in agreement with a recently published paper:

Slowdown of the Walker circulation at solar cycle maximum
Stergios Misios, Lesley J. Gray, Mads F. Knudsen, Christoffer Karoff, Hauke Schmidt, and Joanna D. Haigh

PNAS published ahead of print March 29, 2019 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1815060116

The authors of this paper provide robust evidence that the solar (sunspot) cycle affects decadal variability in the tropical Pacific. Using the analysis of independent observations, they demonstrate a slowdown of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC) at solar cycle maximum.

Figure 1

Confirmation of the presence of a periodic 11-year cycle in the monthly Nina3.4 SST anomalies time series is shown in figure2. This plot is a Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of the time series. It shows that there are four periods in the monthly Nina3.4 SST anomalies that have a significance greater than 95 % (assuming AR1 noise) [Note: These four periods are NOT found in the El Nino component of the monthly Nino3.4 SST anomaly series]:

a) the 1.0-year period associated with the seasonal cycle
b) the 1.125-year period associated with the 1.127-year Full Moon Cycle (FMC)
c) the 0.950-year period associated with the 0.949-year (lunar) Draconic year cycle
d) the  11.24-year period tentatively associated with the 11.2-year Schwabe Cycle in the SSN.

The presence of spectral peaks at periods associated with the FMC and the (lunar) Draconic year indicates that there must a lunar tidal influence upon the timing of the La Nina/Neutral component of the ENSO phenomenon.

Figure 2

Figure 3 shows the SSA of the monthly Nina3.4 SST anomalies presence of:

a) the 1.0-year period associated with the seasonal cycle
b) the 11.127-year period associated with the (lunar tidal) FMC
c) the 11.9-year period tentatively associated with the 11.2-year Schwabe Cycle in the SSN.
d) the 3.62-year period tentatively associated with the 3.73-year 1/3rd Schwabe Cycle.

Note that 3.62-year peak is most likely the merged peak of the 1/3rd Schwabe SSN cycle (at 3.747 years) with a peak at three times the Chandler Wobble (3.555 years = 3 x 1.1850 years) such that:

3.651 years = (3.555 + 3.747 years)/2

Figure 3

The Genius of Nikolay Sidorenkov

Here is a succinct summary of Nikolay Sidorenkov's theoretical explanation for the observations that I have presented in this blog! Nikolay Sidorenkov is a true genius!!

SUMMARY (if TL'DR): Just as the Earth's movement around the Sun produces the yearly seasonal cycles in the Earth's weather, the weekly movement of the Earth about the Earth-Moon barycentre produces weekly-seasons in the Earth's synoptic weather.

       

For more detail see: Celestial Mechanical Causes of Weather and Climate Change N. S. Sidorenkov 

Izvestiya, Atmospheric, and Oceanic Physics, 2016, Vol. 52, No. 7, pp. 667–682

Note: μ is what I call ((delta omega)/omega) in my earlier emails.

 

NATURAL SYNOPTIC PERIODS 

The monitoring of the tidal oscillations in the Earth’s rotational speed, the evolution of synoptic processes in the atmosphere, atmospheric circulation regimes and time variations in hydrometeorological characteristics showed that the majority of types of synoptic processes in the atmosphere vary synchronously with the tidal oscillations in the Earth’s rotational speed (Sidorenkov, 2002, 2009). Using historical data, we checked how often the extrema (minima or maxima) of the angular velocity ν coincide with the times of restructuring of elementary synoptic processes (ESPs) according to the typology proposed by G.Ya. Vangengeim (1935). Statistical analysis showed that, in 76% of cases, the times of the extrema of the angular velocity ν coincide within ±1 day with the dates of ESP restructuring. In 24% of cases, the times of the extrema of ν differ by 2 days or more from the nearest dates of ESP restructuring (Sidorenko, 2000, 2002). 

The long-term comparative monitoring of variations in meteorological characteristics in Moscow, Vladivostok, etc., with the pattern of tidal fluctuations in the Earth’s rotational speed ν (similar to those shown in Fig. 2) clearly confirms the conclusion that the weather variations coincide with the quasi-weekly extrema of ν (see the website: http://geoastro.ru). The changes in the weather regimes coincide with the extrema of the tidal oscillations in the rotational speed ν. It is evident from all the above that the changes in the synoptic processes in the atmosphere are synchronized with the tidal oscillations in Earth’s rotational speed ν.

 

Changes in weather occur near the extrema of the tidal oscillations in the Earth’s rotational speed, which correspond to the times of lunstices (standstills of the moon) and lunar equinoxes. Similar to the 3-month seasons of the year, which are associated with the Earth’s revolution around the Sun, weather regimes have a kind of quasi-weekly weather seasons. The quantization of weather regimes was first described by B.P. Mul’tanovskii in 1915 (1933), who called them natural synoptic periods (NSPs). Thus, the NSPs are due to the monthly revolution of the Earth and Moon around their barycenter. Weather responds to the times of lunstices and lunar equinoxes. In contrast to the solar seasons, lunar NSPs are unstable: they vary from 4 to 9 days, with an average duration of 6.8 days. These variations are caused by the frequency modulation of the oscillations in tidal forces due to the motion of the lunar orbit perigee. The plots of the tidal oscillations of ν provide an NSP “timetable,” demonstrating that the NSP durations do not vary randomly. Unfortunately, studies are still being published that incorrectly consider the NSP dynamics in the format of Brownian motion. 

The most convincing evidence of the influence of lunar tides on atmospheric processes is the spectra of the equatorial components of the atmospheric angular momentum h1 + ih2 (Fig. 3) in the celestial reference frame (CRF) (Sidorenkov, 2009, 2010; Sidorenkov et al., 2014). In Fig. 3, one can clearly see in the intramonthly part of the spectrum the high line of the fortnightly oscillation 13.6 days. 

The narrowness of the line suggests [the] stability [of] the oscillation period [is high]. 

The width of the spectral peak of the roughly quarter-monthly, or weekly, frequency in Fig. 3 indicates the instability of the period and the high power of the quasi-weekly waves, whose period fluctuates from 4 to 9 days. These lunar tidal waves are manifested in weather as Mul’tanovskii NSPs. 

Why have none of the experts on atmospheric tides identified the quasi-weekly and fortnightly oscillations? The reason is that they all use the rotating terrestrial reference frame (TRF), wherein hydrometeorological and hydrophysical characteristics are always measured relative to the stationary terrestrial surface, although the TRF axes rotate with an angular velocity of Ω (1 cycle/day). The waves of gravitational tides revolve at very low velocities μ. When analyzing the measurement results, their angular velocities μ merge with the huge angular velocity of the daily thermal tide wave –Ω (the minus sign is due to the rotation of the thermal tidal wave from east to west) and become virtually invisible for research: μ – Ω ≈ –Ω. 

For low-frequency waves of gravitational tides not to be lost in the analysis, one needs to eliminate the angular velocity of the Earth’s rotation Ω, i.e., demodulate the time series of the terrestrial measurements, thus making a transition from the terrestrial (TRF) to the stationary celestial (CRF) reference frame (Sidorenkov, 2009, 2010; Sidorenkov et al., 2014). In this case, the frame axes, as well as the terrestrial surface, are stationary. After the demodulation, the aggregate tidal wave changes not only its velocity but also its direction of motion. Before demodulation, the aggregate tidal wave moves from east to west with an angular velocity of μ – Ω ≈ –Ω ≈ 360°/days

and, after demodulation, it moves from west to east with a velocity of the Moon’s proper motion: ~13°/days. The directions and velocities of the proper motion of tidal waves coincide with those of atmospheric disturbances, and there is synchronization between them (see (Sidorenkov and Sumerova, 2010, 2012) and the website: http://geoastro.ru). 

It is believed that the effects of gravitational tides must be uniform on global spatial scales. Our longterm experience shows that, at the times of the extrema of tidal forces, there are changes almost everywhere in the Earth’s spheres, but the signs and phases of these changes are different everywhere. In the same way that every port in the world ocean has its own establishment to calculate the maximum high tide, the manifestations of lunisolar tides in the atmosphere are local. The reason is that, when moving in the atmosphere, the tidal waves (which are up to 28 000 in number in modern expansions of the tidal potential) are reflected from orographic obstacles, as well as baric and thermal inhomogeneities, and interfere with one another to create a variegated interference pattern. Based on the studies of oceantides, the atmosphere may have nodal amphidromic points (at which the tide height is zero at any point in time), where there are no tidal oscillations, and antinodes, where tides are amplified by an order of magnitude.