The PDO - a signature of the influence of long-term Lunar tides on ocean up whelming

The (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) PDO signature is shown in the bottom two globe projections. The left global projection corresponds to a positive PDO, the right to a negative PDO. Compare both of these to the equipotential tidal surface formed by the 18.6 year Nodal tides.

The Equatorial Pacific Ocean moves up and down by +/- 7 to 8 mm every 18.6 years, in anti-phase to the North Pacific Ocean. It is possible that slow upward and downward movement of the ocean surface may be responsible for periodic up whelming of cool deep-ocean water on bi-decadal (18.6 year) and ~ 55.8 (= 3 x 18.6) year times scales.

Why Do the Long-Term Periodicities in the ENSO Appear in the Flux Optical Depth Anomalies for Water Vapor in the Earth's Atmosphere?

Figure added at end of post 15/11/2019

http://landshape.org/enm/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/optical-depth-trend-1.png

Shown above, is the flux optical depth anomalie for the Earth's atmosphere between 1948 and 2007. It turns out that this is a rough measure the total column density of water vapor in the Earth's atmosphere from year to year over this time period.

Shown below, is a comparison between the polar Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of the flux optical depth anomalie between 1964 and 2001, and a periodogram of the ENSO/SOI over the same time period.

[N. Sidorenkov, Astronomy Reports, Vol. 44, No. 6, 2000, pp 414 - 419, translated from Astronomischeskii Zhurnal, Vol. 77, No. 6, 2000, pp 474 - 480]

Remarkably, the 6.2 (& 6.0), 4.8, 3.6, 2.4, and 2.1-year periodicities in the ENSO/SOI periodogram of Siderenkov (2000), are also clearly evident in the FFT of the flux optical depth anomalies data.

Four of these six long-term periodicities (i.e. 2.4, 3.6, 4.8, and 6.0 years) are sub-harmonics of the 1.2 year period of the Earth's free nutation i.e. the Chandler Wobble. In addition, all six of the long-term periodicities are very close to the super-harmonics of the 18.6 year period of the Earth's forced nutation (i.e. 6.2, 4.7, 3.7, 2.3, and 2.1 years) ie. the periodic precession of the line-of-nodes of the Lunar orbit.

This data tells us that the ENSO must play a major role in setting the overall column density of water vapor in the Earth's atmosphere. In addition, it indicates that the ENSO must also be an important factor in setting the World's means temperature, since water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas in the Earth's atmosphere.

What is even more remarkelable, is the fact that common frequencies seen in the two data sets are simply those that would be expected if ENSO phenomenon was the resonant response of the Earth's (atmospheric/oceanic) climate system brought about by a coupling between the Earth's forced (18.6 year Nodical Lunar Cycle) and unforced (1.2 year Chandler Wobble) nutations.

Which came first, the chicken or the egg?

http://www.lavoisier.com.au/articles/greenhouse-science/solar-cycles/IanwilsonForum2008.pdf

Many people argue that the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)
Index is largely a reddened response to El-Nino-ENSO forcing
from the tropical Pacific ocean (see * below). However,
the graph above shows that this view is not compatible
with the observations.

The lower of the two graphs in this figure shows the phase of the
PDO from 1660 to 2000 A.D., as indicated by proxy tree-ring
data of Vernon and Franks (2006). Above it is a graph of the
(running) mean intensity of El Nino events over the same time
period, as published from proxy tree-ring data by Gergis and
Fowler (2006) [Advances in GeoScience, 6, pp. 173 - 179, 2006].

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that every time the
PDO switches positive, there is a progressive increase in the
mean intensity of El Nino events, and every time the PDO
switches negative, there is a progressive decrease in the mean
intensity of El Nino events.

Simple causational logic tells you that it is the El Nino that is
reponding to the long term changes in the PDO and not the
other way around. This evidence alone, should be enough to
completly invalidate the models of Newman et al. [2003] and
Shakun and Sharman (2009) [Geophysical Research Letters].

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/16/connecting-enso-pdv-and-the-north-and-south-pacific/#comments

A much more likley explanation for the results that these
authors are getting is that the underlying causal mechanism
for both the El-Nino-ENSO phenomenon and the PDO are linked.

In this blog, I propose to show that the common underlying
mechanism responsible for the changes seen in the ENSO
and the PDO are the lunar tides and their effect upon the
up-welling cool deep ocean water in the Pacific ocean.