Sunday, May 13, 2018

A Re-Post of - The El Niños during New Moon Epoch 5 - 1963 to 1994

A detailed investigation of the precise alignments between the lunar synodic [lunar phase] cycle and the 31/62 year Perigee-Syzygy cycle between 1865 and 2014 shows that it naturally breaks up six 31 year epochs each of which has a distinctly different tidal property. The second 31-year interval starts with the precise alignment on the 15th of April 1870 with the subsequent epoch boundaries occurring every 31 years after that:

Epoch 1 - Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 3 - 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 5 - 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994
Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025



The hypothesis that the 31/62 year seasonal tidal cycle plays a significant role in sequencing the triggering of El Niñevents leads one to reasonably expect that tidal effects for the following three epochs:

New Moon Epoch:
Epoch 1 - Prior to 15th April  1870
Epoch 3 - 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932
Epoch 5 - 23rd April 1963 to 25th April 1994

[N.B. During these epochs, the peak seasonal tides are dominated by new moons that are    predominately in the northern hemisphere.]

should be noticeably different to its effects for these three epochs:

Full Moon Epochs:
Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901
Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963
Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025

[N.B. During these epochs. the peak seasonal tides are dominated by full moons that are predominately in the southern hemisphere.]
If we specifically look at the 31-year New Moon Epoch 5, we find that: 

Figures 1, 2, and 3 (below) show the Moon's distance from the Earth (in kilometers) at the times where it crosses the Earth's equator, for the years 1964 through to 1995.

Figure 1


  Figure 2


Figure 3



Superimposed on each of these figures are the seven strong(#) El Niño events that occurred during this time period. Table 1 summaries the dates (i.e year and month) for start of each of these seven strong El Niño events.

Table 1



# For the definition of a strong El Niño event go to part c) of:

http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2014/11/evidence-that-strong-el-Nino-events-are_12.html

[* N.B. The 1969 El Niño event just falls short of the selection criterion for a strong El Niño event because it only last for three months. It has been included in Table 1 for completeness.]

Figures 1,2 and 3 clearly show that all of the eight El Niño events in this tidal epoch occur at times where the distance of the Moon as sequential crossings of the Earth's equator have almost the same value of ~ 382,000 km. In the years when this happens, the lunar line-of-apse is closely aligned with either the December or June Solstice. 

It is possible that this correlation could be dismissed as a coincidence. However, it is extremely unlikely that:

a)  during the other New Moon tidal epoch i.e. Epoch 3 - from the 8th April 1901 to 20th April 1932, El Niño events should also occur when the lunar line-of-apse is closely aligned with either the December or June Solstice.

b) during the Full Moon tidal epochs i.e. Epoch 2 - 15th April 1870 to 18th April 1901; Epoch 4 - 20th April 1932 to 23rd April 1963; Epoch 6 - 25th April 1994 to 27th April 2025, El Nino events should occur when  the lunar line-of-apse is closely aligned with either the March or September Equinox.

The switch between the timing of El Niño events, once every 31 years, at the same time that there is a switch from a New Moon tidal epoch to Full Moon tidal epoch, tell us that it is very likely that El Niño events, are in fact, triggered by the lunar tides.

Friday, May 11, 2018

Recent Publications


2018

Ian Robert George Wilson* and Nikolay S Sidorenkov, A Luni-Solar Connection to Weather and Climate I: Centennial Times Scales, J Earth Sci Clim Change 2018, 9:2

Abstract:

Lunar ephemeris data is used to find the times when the Perigee of the lunar orbit points directly toward or away from the Sun, at times when the Earth is located at one of its solstices or equinoxes, for the period from 1993 to 2528 A.D. The precision of these lunar alignments is expressed in the form of a lunar alignment index (ϕ). When a plot is made of ϕ, in a frame-of-reference that is fixed with respect to the Perihelion of the Earth’s orbit, distinct periodicities are seen at 28.75, 31.0, 88.5 (Gleissberg Cycle), 148.25, and 208.0 years (de Vries Cycle). The full significance of the 208.0-year repetition pattern in ϕ only becomes apparent when these periodicities are compared to those observed in the spectra for two proxy time series. The first is the amplitude spectrum of the maximum daytime temperatures (Tm) on the Southern Colorado Plateau for the period from 266 BC to 1997 AD. The second is the Fourier spectrum of the solar modulation potential (ϕm) over the last 9400 years. A comparison between these three spectra shows that of the nine most prominent periods seen in ϕ, eight have matching peaks in the spectrum of ϕm, and seven have matching peaks in the spectrum of Tm. This strongly supports the contention that all three of these phenomena are related to one another. A heuristic Luni-Solar climate model is developed in order to explain the connections between ϕ, Tm and ϕm.

https://www.omicsonline.org/open-access/a-lunisolar-connection-to-weather-and-climate-i-centennial-times-scales-2157-7617-1000446.pdf

2017

N.S.Sidorenkov, Ian Wilson, Influence of Solar Retrograde Motion on Terrestrial Processes, Odessa Astronomical Publications, vol. 30 (2017), p. 246

Abstract:

The influence of solar retrograde motion on secular minima of solar activity, volcanic eruptions, climate changes, and other terrestrial processes is investigated. Most collected data suggest that secular minima of solar activity, powerful volcanic eruptions, significant climate changes, and catastrophic earthquakes occur around events of solar retrograde motion.

http://oap.onu.edu.ua/article/view/114695/113096