Wednesday, October 30, 2013

Just a Reminder

Back in 2008-09 I wrote a paper entitled:

Are Changes in the Earth’s Rotation Rate Externally Driven
and Do They Affect Climate? Wilson, I.R.G.,
The General Science Journal, Dec 2011, 3811.

In the abstract of this paper I make the following claims:

Evidence is presented to show that the phases of two of the 
Earth’s major climate systems, the North Atlantic Oscillation 
(NAO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), are related 
to changes in the Earth’s rotation rate. We find that the winter 
NAO index depends upon the time rate of change of the Earth’s 
length of day (LOD). In addition, we find that there is a 
remarkable correlation between the years where the phase of 
the PDO is most positive and the years where the deviation of 
the Earth’s LOD from itslong-term trend is greatest.

In order to prove that the variations in the NAO and PDO indices
are caused by changes in the Earth’s rotation rate, and not the 
other way around, we show that there is a strong correlation 
between the times of maximum deviation of the Earth’s LOD 
from its long-term trend and the times where there are abrupt 
asymmetries in the motion of the Sun about the CM of the 
Solar System
At first glance, there does not appear to be an obvious physical 
phenomenon that would link the Sun’s motion about the Solar 
System’s CM to the Earth’s rotation rate. However, such a link 
could occur if the rate of precession of the line-of-nodes of the 
Moon’s orbit were synchronized with orbital periods of 
Terrestrial planets and Jupiter, which in turn would have to 
be synchronized with the orbital periods of the three remaining 
Jovian planets. In this case, the orbital periods of the Jovian
 planets, which cause the asymmetries in the Sun’s motion 
about the CM, would be synchronized with a phenomenon 
that is known to cause variations in the Earth’s rotation 
rate, namely the long term lunar tides.

Here is a (combined) graph from this publication supporting my claims. The graph links the times when the PDO is positive to the times of maximum deviation of the Earth’s LOD from its long-term trend and the times where there are abrupt asymmetries in the motion of the Sun about the CM of the Solar System:

It is important to note that the times of peak asymmetry in the Sun's motion about the centre-of-mass of the solar system and the times of peaks (absolute) deviation of the Earth's LOD (length-of-day) from its long-term trend have been shifted backwards by ~ 8 years. This means that they peak ~ 8 years prior to the peaks seen in the long-term PDO proxy index.

I will stick my neck out here. If this pattern that we've seen over the last 300 years holds then the PDO should should start turning positive sometime soon after 2016. There was a peak in the asymmetry of the Sun's motion in 2008 and so this should be followed roughly eight years later by a rapid rise in the PDO index.     

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