Do Periodic Peaks in the Planetary Tidal Forces

Acting Upon the Sun Influence the Sunspot Cycle?

Available at:

http://www.wbabin.net/Science-Journals/Research%20Papers-Astrophysics/Download/3812

ABSTRACT

A parameter that is indicative of the peak planetary tidal forces acting upon the Sun i.e. changes in the alignment of Jupiter, at the time of inferior and superior conjunctions of Venus and Earth, naturally exhibits characteristics that either mimic or replicate five of the main properties of the solar cycle. These properties include: the Schwabe cycle; the Hale cycle; the Gnevyshev−Ohl rule; the extended solar cycle; and the sunspot cycle's inherent memory. We believe that this result strongly supports the proposal by Hung (2007) that the solar sunspot cycle is being influenced by variations in the planetary tidal forces acting upon the Sun. This conclusion is supported by the fact that over the last thousand years, every time the peak planetary tidal forces acting upon the Sun are at their weakest there has been a period of low solar activity know as a Grand Solar minimum. The one exception to this rule is a period of weak planetary tidal peaks that roughly coincides with the Medieval Maximum in solar activity. We speculate that this one exception to the rule might have occurred because there was another countervailing factor present during the Medieval Maximum that was working against the planetary tidal effects. We note that the most recent period of weak planetary tidal peaks reached a maximum sometime in the 1990's, without any significant reduction in the level of solar activity. This leads us to conclude that the activity level on the Sun is either in early stages of an Oort−like minimum that will last from 2005−2045, or it is about half way through a period of high solar activity similar to the Medieval Maximum. We believe that evidence pointing towards a significant decrease in the level of sunspot activity in the upcoming solar cycles strongly favors the former conclusion.

The high quality of the correlation in figure 6a can be used to make a prediction of the peak annual sunspot number for cycles 24 and 25. If we do this, we obtain 87 ± 11 for the peak annual sunspot number of cycle 24 and 72 ± 8 for cycle 25.


A peak annual sunspot number of 87 ± 11 for cycle 24 is in good agreement with the predictions of 75 ± 8 made by Svalgaard et al.(2005) based upon the idea that strength of the polar field during the declining phase of one sunspot cycle is a good indicator of the peak sunspot number of the next cycle.

Preparing for the Next Indian Mega-Famine

Can We Predict the Next Indian Mega-Famine?

The Published Paper in Energy and Environment

The original article is behind a pay wall. It is published in Energy and Environment, Vol. 20, No. 1-2, Jan 2009. 

Wilson et al.’s (2008) prediction of reduced solar activity (starting with sunspot cycle 24), combined with the results of this paper, lead us to predict that there could be as much as a 1-in-4 chance that the Indian sub-continent will suffer a catastrophic multi-year failure of the summer monsoon, starting sometime between 2018 - 2020. Potentially, this mega-famine could lead to massive food shortages across large sections of the Indian sub-continent, resulting in millions of deaths.

                                                                   ABSTRACT

Catastrophic multi-year failure of the Indian monsoon has caused at least eight mega-famines in India over the last 1100 years. Historical data shows that seven out of the eight mega-famines have either started within ± one year of the year of greatest asymmetry in the Sun’s motion about the Solar System’s centre-of-mass, or 11 years ± one year after this event. The Sun is currently experiencing a maximum in the asymmetry of its motion about the centre-of-mass. Evidence is presented to show that there is almost a 1-in-4 the chance that there will be another Indian mega-famine in 2018-20. While the chance of such a catastrophic event occurring is small, it is large enough that the governments on the Indian subcontinent should take precautionary measures to confront this potentially devastating threat.

Table 1 lists the eight mega-famines included in this study, their duration and a brief historical description of each of the famine’s effects (Maharatna 1996).

YEARS      Duration              FAMINE’S EFFECTS
                   (Years)

941 – 950         9?       May have continued until 1022 – entire
                                         provinces were depopulated
1148 – 1159     11      The 11 year famine
1344 – 1345       3?     The Great Famine - The emperor was unable
                                         to obtain the necessaries for
                                         his own household. The famine
                                         continued for years & millions
                                         perished.
1396 – 1407     12      The Durga Devi famine
1659 – 1661      3?      Not a drop of rain fell for two years
1790 – 1792      3        The Doji Bara, or skull famine. So
                                          many died that they couldn't be
                                          buried.
1876 – 1878      3        5,000,000 people died in India.
1899 – 1901      3?      Over 1.0 million people killed
                                          on the subcontinent

The famines of 1344 – 1345, 1661, and 1899 – 1901 may not be strictly mega famines, because they may not have lasted for prerequisite 3 years. However, they are included here as mega-famines for the following reasons (Majid Sheikh 2003):

a) Chauhau (2007) writes that: “For seven years from 1335 famine was rampant throughout Northern India, when Muhammad Tughlak ordered the evacuation of Dehli to Deogiri in the Deccan.”. If this claim is true, then this famine may have started in 1335 and reached its peak intensity in 1344 – 1345. This would make it a likely mega-famine candidate.

b) The “1661 famine [was] due to drought - no rain since 1659” so it is possible that the effects of the famine may have lasted for up to three years (Ayton 2006).

c) The All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) was more than 26 % below normal in 1899 and 15 % below normal in 1901, so it is plausible that famine-like conditions may have prevailed for the full three year period from 1899 to 1901. However, it must be acknowledged that this is the weakest mega-famine candidate because of its relatively low severity.


Further support for our choice of mega-famines candidates is provided by a study done by Sinha et al. (2005). This study uses δ18O records from stalagmites in caves at Dandak, India, to detect periods of extended drought. Allowing for uncertainties in their dating calibrations between the years 800 – 1000 and after the year 1500, it is possible to use their data to identify the first five mega-famine candidates listed in Table 1. Their data also shows periods of extended drought associated with the earlier possible meg-famine candidates in 650 and 879. However, these two famines are not included in our sample because we do not know exactly when they started and how long they lasted.

Shown below are the four out of the eight recognized Indian mega famines that occurred within plus or minus one year of the maximum asymmetry of the Solar motion about the Solar System's barycentre.

     The three of the remaining four Indian mega famines started withing plus or minus 11 years of the  maximum asymmetry of the Solar motion about the Solar System's barycentre. The following graph shows that there is a 1 in 4 chance the the next Indian mega famine could start sometime between 2018 and 2020.

Finally, it should be emphasized that the chance of a mega-famine occurring is only 1-in-4, and so there is a 3-in-4 chance that it will not occur. However, we believe that chance of this terrible tragedy is high enough that the Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi governments should consider making some contingency plans to help mitigate the huge potential loss of life.


 

The Planetary-Lunar-Climate Connection

                                           2008 Paper

http://www.wbabin.net/Science-Journals/Research%20Papers-Astrophysics/Download/3811

                                                ABSTRACT

Evidence is presented to show that the phases of two of the Earth’s major climate systems, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), are related to changes in the Earth’s rotation rate. We find that the winter NAO index depends upon the time rate of change of the Earth’s length of day (LOD). In addition, we find that there is a remarkable correlation between the years where the phase of the PDO is most positive and the years where the deviation of the Earth’s LOD from its long-term trend is  greatest.

In order to prove that the variations in the NAO and PDO indices are caused by changes in the Earth’s rotation rate, and not the other way around, we show that there is a strong correlation between the times of maximum deviation of the Earth’s LOD from its long-term trend and the times where there are abrupt asymmetries in the motion of the Sun about the CM of the Solar System.

At first glance, there does not appear to be an obvious physical phenomenon that would link the Sun’s motion about the Solar System’s CM to the Earth’s rotation rate. However, such a link could occur if the rate of precession of the line-of-nodes of the Moon’s orbit were synchronized with orbital periods of Terrestrial planets and Jupiter, which in turn would have to be synchronized with the orbital periods of the three remaining Jovian planets. In this case, the orbital periods of the Jovian planets, which cause the asymmetries in the Sun’s motion about the CM, would be synchronized with a phenomenon that is known to cause variations in the Earth’s rotation rate, namely the long term lunar tides.

The periodicities seen in the asymmetry of the solar motion about the CM are all submultiples of the 179 year Jose cycle, with the dominant periods being 1/5 (= 35.87 yrs), 1/9 (= 19.86 yrs) and 1/14 (12.78 yrs). In addition, the realignment time for the orbits of Venus, Earth and Jupiter is a ¼ of the 179 year Jose cycle (= 44.77 yrs).

Through what appears to be a “Grand Cosmic Conspiracy” we find that:

6.393 yrs = (the 179 year repetition cycle of the Solar motion about the CM) / 28

6.396 yrs = (the 44.77 year realignment time for Venus, Earth, and Jupiter) / 7

which just happens to be realignment time for orbits of the planets Venus, Earth and Mars (= 6.40 yrs).

The significance of the 6.40 year repetition period is given added weight by the fact that if you use it to modulate the sidereal year of the Earth/Moon system, the side-lobe period that is produced, almost perfectly matches the 2nd harmonic time interval over which there are the greatest changes in the meridional and zonal tidal stresses acting upon the Earth (1 ¼ TD = 433.2751 days = 1.18622 years, where TD is the draconitic year).

We know that the strongest planetary tidal forces acting on the lunar orbit come from the planets Venus, Mars and Jupiter. In addition, we known that, over the last 4.6 billion years, the Moon has slowly receded from the Earth. During the course of this lunar recession, there have been times when the orbital periods of Venus, Mars and Jupiter have been in resonance(s) with the precession rate for the line-of-nodes the lunar orbit. When these resonances have occurred, they would have greatly amplified the effects of the planetary tidal forces upon the lunar orbit. Hence, the observed synchronization between the precession rate of the line-of-nodes of the lunar orbit and the orbital periods of Venus, Earth, Mars and Jupiter, could simply be a cumulative fossil record left behind by these historical resonances.

Where is the rush of [FeXIV] emission to the Sun's poles?

Here is an interesting plot which asks a very pertinent question about Solar cycle 24. Where is the cycle 24 [FeXIV] emission that usually reaches the Sun's pole around about the time of solar maximum? Is this an indicator that we still have a few years to wait till solar maximum or is it just telling us that cycle 24 will have a very weak maximum?

Reference:  http://www.boulder.swri.edu/~deforest/SPD-sunspot-release/6_altrock_rttp.pdf

THE WORLD MEAN TEMPERATURE WARMS(/COOLS)  IF THE IMPACT OF EL NINOS EXCEEDS(/DOES NOT EXCEED) THE IMPACT OF LA NINAS OVER A GIVEN EPOCH.

Distinct Epochs in the Earth's Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and the Earth Rotation

A. The above graph is part of Figure 2.1. from Klyashtorin, L.B., Climate Change and Long-Term Fluctuations of Commercial  Catches - The Possibility of Forecasting, FAO Fisheries Technical Paper No. 410, Rome FAO, 2001.

It shows the close correlation between the rotation rate of the Earth (measured by the Length-of-Day) and the zonal component of the Atmospheric Circulation Index (ACI). This graph shows that the zonal circulation patterns evident in the Earth's atmosphere can be broken up into four 30 year epochs starting in the years 1880-85 [LOD curve only], 1905-1910, 1940-1945 and 1970-1975.  

B. The above graph comes from figure 2.2 of Klyashtorin, L.B., Climate Change and Long-Term Fluctuations of Commercial  Catches - The Possibility of Forecasting, FAO Fisheries Technical Paper No. 410, Rome FAO, 2001.

The above graph shows that if you shift the LOD curve forward by ~ 6 years you get an excellent fit between LOD curve and the de-trended world mean temperature anomaly. Again the overall pattern can be broken up into four distinct 30 year epoch starting in the years 1880, 1910, 1940 and 1970.

C. The above graph comes from figure 2.23 of Klyashtorin, L.B., Climate Change and Long-Term Fluctuations of Commercial  Catches - The Possibility of Forecasting, FAO Fisheries Technical Paper No. 410, Rome FAO, 2001.

The above graph shows that if you shift the ACI curve forward by ~ 4 years you get an excellent fit between LOD curve and the de-trended world mean temperature anomaly (dT). Again the overall pattern can be broken up into three distinct 30 year epoch starting in the years 1910, 1940 and 1970. The ACI index does not extend far enough back to set a starting date for the first epoch but the dT and LOD curves suggest a date sometime around 1875 to 1880.

The (Extended) Multivariate ENSO Index

The Multivariate ENSO Index is defined at the NOAA web site located at:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

The Extended Multivariate ENSO Index is defined at the NOAA web site located at:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.ext/index.html

The important point to note is that Multivariate ENSO Index is the most precise way to follow variations in the ENSO phenomenon:


Negative values of the MEI represent the cold ENSO phase, a.k.a. La Niña, while positive MEI values represent the warm ENSO phase (El Niño).

The Cumulative Sum of the MEI

If the cumulative sum of the MEI over a given epoch steadily increase throughout the epoch then the impact of El Ninos exceed the impact of the La Ninas over this epoch.

 If the cumulative sum of the MEI over a given epoch steadily decrease throughout the epoch then the impact of La Ninas exceed the impact of the El Ninos over this epoch.  

The dotted red line in the above graph shows the cumulative sum of the extended Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) between the years 1880 and 2000 A.D. The cumulative sum has been taken over each of the four 30 year epochs, starting in the years 1880, 1910, 1940, and 1970.

The solid blue line in the above graph shows the cumulative sum of the extended Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) between the years 1886 and 2006 A.D. The cumulative sum has been taken over each of the four 30 year epochs, staring in the years 1886, 1916, 1946, and 1976.

It is clearly evident from this plot that whenever the cumulative MEI index is systematically decreasing over a 30 year epoch i.e. between 1886 and 1915, and between 1946 and 1975, the world's mean temperature decreases. It is also evident that whenever the cumulative MEI index is systematically increasing over a 30 year epoch i.e. between 1916 and 1945, and between 1976 and 2005, the world's mean temperature increases.

CONCLUSIONS

1. The ratio of the impact of El Ninos to the impact of La Ninas upon climate can be monitored over multi-decadal time scales using the cumulative MEI.

2. The cumulative MEI shows that since roughly 1880 there have been four main climate epochs, each 30 years long. There are have been two 30 year periods of cooling (i.e. from 1886 to 1915, and from 1946 to 1975) and two 30 year peiods of heating (i.e. from 1916 to 1945, and from 1976 to 2005).

3. Periods of warming occur whenever the impact of El Ninos exceeds the impact of La Ninas. Periods of cooling occur whenever the impact of La Ninas exceed the impact of El Ninos.