Evidence that the Sun has always had an important influence upon climate change

Abreu et al. [2012] wrote:

"The parameter that best represents the role of the solar magnetic field in deflecting cosmic
rays [and hence, the overall level of solar activity] is the solar modulation potential , which can be derived from either the 10Be or the 14C production rates."

and 

"....spectral analysis [of the solar modulation potential over the last ~ 9400 years] identifies a number of distinct periodicities (Stuiver & Braziunas 1993), such as 88 yr (Gleissberg), 104 yr, 150 yr, 208 yr (de Vries), 506 yr, 1000 yr (Eddy), and 2200 yr (Hallstatt) [cycles]..."

The top figure in the following diagram shows the Fourier transform of the variation in the solar modulation potential time series over the last 9400 years [Abreu et al. 2012]. This figure shows that potential has distinct spectral peaks at 88 years (Gleissberg Cycle), 104 years, 133 years, 150 years, 210 years (de Vries Cycle), 232 years, 356 years and 504 years.

Below this is a second figure showing amplitude spectrum of variations in the North American temperature time series over the last ~ 7000 years. The temperature time series is obtained from tree ring data obtained from Bristle Cones on the Southern Colorado Plateau [for the details of the source of this data see: Could This Be The Climate Smoking Gun?  and Salzer and Kipfmeuller (2005). The lower figure shows clear spectral peaks at approximately 88, 106, 130, 148, 209, 232, 353 and 500 years.

This seems to be very strong evidence that Sun has always had an important influence upon climate conditions [such as temperature] at a regional level. Why are some many people ignoring this obvious climate connection?

Note: The top figure was recreated from a digitization of figure 5a of Abreu et al. [2012] while the bottom figure was recreated from digitization of part of figure 3a of Ron et al. [2012].

References:

1. Is there a planetary influence on solar activity?
J. A. Abreu, J. Beer, A. Ferriz-Mas; K. G. McCracken, and F. Steinhilber.
A&A 548, A88 (2012)

2. Solar Excitation of Bicentennial Earth Rotation Oscillations.
Cyril Ron, Yavor Chapanov and Jan Vondrak
Acta Geodyn. Geomater., Vol. 9, No. 3 (167), 259–268, 2012

3. Reconstructed temperature and precipitation on a millennial timescale from tree-rings in the Southern Colorado Plateau.
Salzer, M.W. and Kipfmueller, K.F.: 2005,
 U.S.A. Climatic Change, 70, No 3, 465–487

Solar Terrestrial Climate Weave

Here is a modified plot of Paul Vaughan's Solar Terrestrial Climate Weave of volatility (i.e. either standard deviation or variance) of some, as yet, unspecified variable. Clearly, Paul finds that there is a seasonal pattern in the variance of this unspecified variable that repeats itself once every 11 years i.e. it changes phase by 180 degrees roughly every 5.5 years (2 x 5.5  = 11.0 years).    

It would really help if Paul indicated the nature of the variable whose variance (or standard deviation) he is measuring so that others could share in this important [long-standing] discovery.  

Previously established facts about the lunar influence upon the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO).

Pukite [1] has identified four spectral peaks that contribute the greatest power to his QBO model.

These are:

Period________Relative Strength____________Pukite's Attribution

2.370 years________54.6________________Draconic month annually aliased
2.528 years________25.3________________Mf' annually aliased
2.715 years________22.1________________Tropical month annually aliased
1.960 years________21.6________________half x (the anomalistic cycle annually aliased)

These have been previously identified by Vaughan [2] who has attributed their discovery to Piers Corbyn on or before the 29th November 2009.

[N.B. Mean Parameters used (J2000) in this analysis are:
Synodic month = 29.5305889 days
anomalistic month = 27.554550 days
Draconic month = 27.212221 days
Tropical month = 27.321582 days

Tropical year = 365.242189 days]

Vaughan[3], himself has shown that:

a) 1.960 tropical years  - half x (the anomalistic lunar monthly cycle annually aliased).

anomalistic month = 27.554550 days
nearest harmonic of tropical year:
(365.242189) / 13 = 28.095553 days

physical aliasing:
0.5 * (28.095553)*(27.554550) / (28.095553 – 27.554550) = 715.486162 days
(865.5210016) / 365.242189 = 1.958936 tropical years which rounds to 1.959 tropical years.

b) 2.37 tropical years - the Draconic lunar monthly cycle annually aliased

Draconic month = 27.212221 days
nearest harmonic of tropical year:
(365.242189) / 13 = 28.095553 days

physical aliasing:
(28.095553)*(27.212221) / (28.095553 – 27.212221) = 865.5210016 days
(865.5210016) / 365.242189 = 2.369718 tropical years which rounds to 2.37 tropical years.

[N.B. this almost exactly twice the nominal mean period for the Earth's Chandler wobble
of 432.8 days i.e. 2 x 432.8 days = 2.370 tropical years]

c) 2.528 tropical years [This is my little contribution]

This very close to the harmonic mean of 2.715 and 2.370 i.e. 

2 (2.369718 x 2.715425) /(2.369718 + 2.715425) = 2.530930 tropical years
which rounds to 2.531 tropical years  

d) 2.715 tropical years - the Synodic or the Tropical lunar monthly cycles annually aliased.

Synodic month = 29.5305889 days
nearest harmonic of tropical year:
(365.242189) / 12 = 30.43684908 days

physical aliasing:
(30.43684908)*(29.5305889) / (30.43684908 – 29.5305889) = 991.7881136 days
(991.78821136) / 365.242189 = 2.715426 tropical years which rounds to 2.715 tropical years.

OR 

Tropical month = 27.321582 days
nearest harmonic of tropical year:
(365.242189) / 13 = 28.095553 days

physical aliasing:
(28.095553)*(27.321582) / (28.095553 – 27.321582) = 991.7877480 days
(991.7877480) / 365.242189 = 2.715425 tropical years which rounds to 2.715 tropical years.


CHECK:

As an added check, the above analysis indicates that if we take the beat period between the 2.370 tropical year aliased QBO Draconic period by the 2.715 tropical year aliased QBO Synodic period i.e.

2.715426 x 2.369718 / (2.715426 - 2.369718) = 18.61338 tropical years

we should get the same period as beat of the Draconic year (=346.62007589 days) with the tropical year i.e.

(365.242189 x 346.62007588) / (365.242189 - 346.62007589) = 6798.383967 days
__________________________________________________= 18.61336 tropical years.

References:

[1] http://contextearth.com/2015/11/07/more-refined-fit-of-qbo/#comment-174237

[2] https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/suggestions-14/comment-page-1/#comment-109035

[3] https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/suggestions-15/comment-page-1/#comment-109392

A link between the Lunar tidal cycles and the planetary orbital periods of Venus, Earth, Jupiter and Saturn

SUMMARY OF RESULTS:



The 2.334740 tropical year lunar tidal period is effectively just the synodic product of the lunar Draconic Year (DY) with the Synodic period of Venus and the Earth.



There is a link between the synodic orbital periods of Venus/Earth and Jupiter/Saturn with the Lunar Nodal Cycle (LNC), Lunar Anomalistic Cycle (LAC), and the lunar Draconic Year (DY).  

[N.B. all values above are in tropical years]

N.B. In addition, a connection was found between the synodic orbital periods of Venus/Earth and Jupiter/Saturn and the LAC when the time variables were expressed in sidereal years. 
Please look at:

http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2015/05/the-six-year-re-alignment-period.html

START OF MAIN POST:

In an earlier post located at:

http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2015/11/two-new-connections-between-planetary.html

A. It was established that if you took the minimum period between the times of maximum change in the tidal stresses acting upon the Earth that are caused by changes in the direction of the lunar tides (i.e. 1.89803 tropical years = 2.0 Draconic years), and amplitude modulate this period by the minimum period between the times of maximum change in tidal stresses acting upon the Earth that are caused by changes in the strength of the lunar tides (i.e. 10.14686 tropical years = 9.0 Full Moon Cycles), you found that the 1.89803 year tidal forcing term is split into a positive and a negative side-lobe, such that: 

Positive side-lobe

[10.14686 x 1.89803] / [10.14686 – 1.89803] = 2.3348 tropical yrs = 28.02 months    (1)

Negative side-lobe
[10.14686 x 1.89803] / [10.14686 + 1.89803] = 1.5989 tropical yrs                               (2)

where

10.146856 tropical years = 3706.059873 days = 9.0 Full Moon Cycles (FMC) and 1.0 FMC = 411.78443029 days = 1.127428 tropical years is the synodic beat period between the mean anomalistic month and the mean Synodic month.

1.89803 tropical years = 693.2401518 days = 2.0 Draconic Years and
1.0 Draconic Year = 346.62007588 days = 0.949014 tropical years is the synodic beat period between the between the mean Draconic month and the mean Synodic month.

Equation (1) can be rewritten as:

              (3)

and equation (2) can be rewritten as:

                  (4)

where 

= the Draconic month = 27.212221 days

 = the anomalistic month = 27.554550 days

 = the Synodic month = 29.5305889 days

and 1.598939 tropical years = 583.999980 days  which differs from the Synodic period of Venus and the Earth by only 1.90 hours.

Adding equations (3) and (4) gives you:

                                                                 (5)

where 

= 1.598939 tropical years, which differs from the synodic period of Venus and the Earth by only 1.90 hours.

DY = 346.6190478 days = 0.9490115 tropical years,  which differs from the Draconic year by only 1.48 minutes.

Hence, the 2.334740 tropical year lunar tidal period is effectively just the synodic product of the lunar Draconic Year (DY) with the Synodic period of Venus and the Earth.

B.  It was established that:

                                                  (6)

where

= the Synodic period of Jupiter and Saturn = 19.8596 tropical years

LNC = Lunar Nodal Cycle = 18.6000 tropical years

LAC = Lunar anomalistic Cycle = 8.8505 tropical years

which, with the substitution of equation (5), can be rewritten as:

                                           (7)

Hence, equation (7) shows that there is a link between the synodic orbital periods of Venus/Earth and Jupiter/Saturn with the Lunar Nodal Cycle (LNC), Lunar Anomalistic Cycle (LAC), and the lunar Draconic Year (DY).  

Two new connections between the Planetary and Lunar Cycles

updated: 09/11/2015 (see bottom of post)

1. The Connection Between the Lunar Tidal Cycles and the Synodic Period of Venus and the Earth. 

The first direct connection between the planetary orbital periods and the lunar tidal cycles can be found in a previous blog post that is located at:

http://astroclimateconnection.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/the-rate-of-change-in-tidal-stresses.html

In this post it was found that:

If you take the minimum period between the times of maximum change in the tidal stresses acting upon the Earth that are caused by changes in the direction of the lunar tides (i.e. 1.89803 tropical years), and amplitude modulate this period by the minimum period between the times of maximum change in tidal stresses acting upon the Earth that are caused by changes in the strength of the lunar tides (i.e. 10.14686 tropical years), you find that the 1.89803 year tidal forcing term is split into a positive and a negative side-lobe, such that: 

Positive side-lobe
[10.14686 x 1.89803] / [10.14686 – 1.89803] = 2.3348 tropical yrs = 28.02 months

Negative side-lobe
[10.14686 x 1.89803] / [10.14686 + 1.89803] = 1.5989 tropical yrs 

N.B. 

10.146856 tropical years = 3706.059873 days = 9.0 Full Moon Cycles (FMC) and 

1.0 FMC = 411.78443029 days = 1.127428 tropical years.
1.89803 tropical years = 693.2401518 days = 2.0 Draconic Years and
1.0 Draconic Year = 346.62007588 days = 0.949014 tropical years.

The time period of the positive side-lobe is almost exactly the same as that of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). The QBO is a quasi-periodic oscillation in the equatorial stratospheric zonal winds that has a mean period of oscillation of approximately 28 months.

Even more remarkable is the time period of the negative side-lobe. It is almost exactly the same as that of the synodic period of the orbits of Venus and the Earth (i.e. 583.92063 days = 1.5987 tropical years), agreeing to within an error of only ~ 1.8 hours.

2. The Connection Between the Lunar Tidal Cycles and the Synodic Period of Jupiter and Saturn.

The second  direct connection between the planetary orbital periods and the lunar tidal cycles comes from a relationship that links the period of the QBO to the lunar and planetary cycles.

(8/19.8592) + (8/18.6000) + (4/8.8505) = 3/(2.3348)

where

19.8592 tropical yrs = the synodic period of Jupiter and Saturn.
18.6000 tropical yrs = time for the lunar line-of-nodes to precess around the Earth w.r.t. the stars.
8.8505 tropical yrs = time for the lunar line-of-apse to precess around the Earth w.r.t. the stars.
2.3348 tropical yrs = 28.02 months approximately equal to the average length of the QBO.

This can be rewritten as:

(8/19.8592) + (8/9.0697) = 3/(2.3348)

Where 9.0697 tropical years is half the harmonic mean of 17.7010 ( = 2 x 8.8505) tropical years and 18.6000 tropical years. This is close to the 9.1 tropical year spectral peak that is known as the the quasi-decadal oscillation.

Hence, we have an expression where the first term on the left is a bi-decadal oscillation, the second term on the left is a quasi-decadal oscillation and the denominator of the first term on the right is near to, but not precisely at, the nominal QBO oscillation period of 2.371 tropical years.

Remarkably, however, the  denominator of the first term on the right-hand side is exactly that of the positive side-lobe produced by the amplitude modulation in part 1.

Hnece, we have established two new connections between the synodic periods of Earth/Venus and Jupiter/Saturn that directly link into the variations in the stresses placed upon the Earth's atmosphere and oceans by the luni-solar tidal cycles

UPDATE: 09/11/15

A third connection between the orbital period of Jupiter and the lunar Draconic year.

In my 2008 paper (that was eventually published in 2010) i.e.

Wilson, I.R.G., 2011, Are Changes in the Earth’s Rotation
Rate Externally Driven and Do They Affect Climate?
The General Science Journal, Dec 2011, 3811.

http://gsjournal.net/Science-Journals/Essays/View/3811

I showed that:

5.0 Draconic years = 0.4 Jupiter orbits = 4 x 433.275 days = 4 x Chandler wobble = 2 x QBO

(with 1 Jupiter orbit = 4332.75 days = 11.8627 tropical years)

This is equivalent to:

50 Draconic years = 4 x 11.8627 topical years = 4 x orbital period of Jupiter.

Thanks oldbrew for reminding every one of this additional connection between the Lunar Draconic cycle and orbit of Jupiter that I made back in 2008.