Astro-Climate-Connection

2012-02-07T02:26:00.000-08:00

Do Periodic Peaks in the Planetary Tidal Forces

Acting Upon the Sun Influence the Sunspot Cycle?

Available at:

http://www.wbabin.net/Science-Journals/Research%20Papers-Astrophysics/Download/3812

ABSTRACT

A parameter that is indicative of the peak planetary tidal forces acting upon the Sun i.e. changes in the alignment of Jupiter, at the time of inferior and superior conjunctions of Venus and Earth, naturally exhibits characteristics that either mimic or replicate five of the main properties of the solar cycle. These properties include: the Schwabe cycle; the Hale cycle; the Gnevyshev−Ohl rule; the extended solar cycle; and the sunspot cycle's inherent memory. We believe that this result strongly supports the proposal by Hung (2007) that the solar sunspot cycle is being influenced by variations in the planetary tidal forces acting upon the Sun. This conclusion is supported by the fact that over the last thousand years, every time the peak planetary tidal forces acting upon the Sun are at their weakest there has been a period of low solar activity know as a Grand Solar minimum. The one exception to this rule is a period of weak planetary tidal peaks that roughly coincides with the Medieval Maximum in solar activity. We speculate that this one exception to the rule might have occurred because there was another countervailing factor present during the Medieval Maximum that was working against the planetary tidal effects. We note that the most recent period of weak planetary tidal peaks reached a maximum sometime in the 1990's, without any significant reduction in the level of solar activity. This leads us to conclude that the activity level on the Sun is either in early stages of an Oort−like minimum that will last from 2005−2045, or it is about half way through a period of high solar activity similar to the Medieval Maximum. We believe that evidence pointing towards a significant decrease in the level of sunspot activity in the upcoming solar cycles strongly favors the former conclusion.

The high quality of the correlation in figure 6a can be used to make a prediction of the peak annual sunspot number for cycles 24 and 25. If we do this, we obtain 87 ± 11 for the peak annual sunspot number of cycle 24 and 72 ± 8 for cycle 25.

A peak annual sunspot number of 87 ± 11 for cycle 24 is in good agreement with the predictions of 75 ± 8 made by Svalgaard et al.(2005) based upon the idea that strength of the polar field during the declining phase of one sunspot cycle is a good indicator of the peak sunspot number of the next cycle.

Preparing for the Next Indian Mega-Famine

2012-01-28T20:25:00.000-08:00

Can We Predict the Next Indian Mega-Famine?

The Published Paper in Energy and Environment

The original article is behind a pay wall. It is published in Energy and Environment, Vol. 20, No. 1-2, Jan 2009.

Wilson et al.’s (2008) prediction of reduced solar activity (starting with sunspot cycle 24), combined with the results of this paper, lead us to predict that there could be as much as a 1-in-4 chance that the Indian sub-continent will suffer a catastrophic multi-year failure of the summer monsoon, starting sometime between 2018 - 2020. Potentially, this mega-famine could lead to massive food shortages across large sections of the Indian sub-continent, resulting in millions of deaths.

ABSTRACT

Catastrophic multi-year failure of the Indian monsoon has caused at least eight mega-famines in India over the last 1100 years. Historical data shows that seven out of the eight mega-famines have either started within ± one year of the year of greatest asymmetry in the Sun’s motion about the Solar System’s centre-of-mass, or 11 years ± one year after this event. The Sun is currently experiencing a maximum in the asymmetry of its motion about the centre-of-mass. Evidence is presented to show that there is almost a 1-in-4 the chance that there will be another Indian mega-famine in 2018-20. While the chance of such a catastrophic event occurring is small, it is large enough that the governments on the Indian subcontinent should take precautionary measures to confront this potentially devastating threat.

Table 1 lists the eight mega-famines included in this study, their duration and a brief historical description of each of the famine’s effects (Maharatna 1996).

YEARS Duration FAMINE’S EFFECTS
(Years)

941 – 950 9? May have continued until 1022 – entire
provinces were depopulated
1148 – 1159 11 The 11 year famine
1344 – 1345 3? The Great Famine - The emperor was unable
to obtain the necessaries for
his own household. The famine
continued for years & millions
perished.
1396 – 1407 12 The Durga Devi famine
1659 – 1661 3? Not a drop of rain fell for two years
1790 – 1792 3 The Doji Bara, or skull famine. So
many died that they couldn't be
buried.
1876 – 1878 3 5,000,000 people died in India.
1899 – 1901 3? Over 1.0 million people killed
on the subcontinent

The famines of 1344 – 1345, 1661, and 1899 – 1901 may not be strictly mega famines, because they may not have lasted for prerequisite 3 years. However, they are included here as mega-famines for the following reasons (Majid Sheikh 2003):

a) Chauhau (2007) writes that: “For seven years from 1335 famine was rampant throughout Northern India, when Muhammad Tughlak ordered the evacuation of Dehli to Deogiri in the Deccan.”. If this claim is true, then this famine may have started in 1335 and reached its peak intensity in 1344 – 1345. This would make it a likely mega-famine candidate.

b) The “1661 famine [was] due to drought - no rain since 1659” so it is possible that the effects of the famine may have lasted for up to three years (Ayton 2006).

c) The All India Summer Monsoon Rainfall (AISMR) was more than 26 % below normal in 1899 and 15 % below normal in 1901, so it is plausible that famine-like conditions may have prevailed for the full three year period from 1899 to 1901. However, it must be acknowledged that this is the weakest mega-famine candidate because of its relatively low severity.

Further support for our choice of mega-famines candidates is provided by a study done by Sinha et al. (2005). This study uses δ18O records from stalagmites in caves at Dandak, India, to detect periods of extended drought. Allowing for uncertainties in their dating calibrations between the years 800 – 1000 and after the year 1500, it is possible to use their data to identify the first five mega-famine candidates listed in Table 1. Their data also shows periods of extended drought associated with the earlier possible meg-famine candidates in 650 and 879. However, these two famines are not included in our sample because we do not know exactly when they started and how long they lasted.

Shown below are the four out of the eight recognized Indian mega famines that occurred within plus or minus one year of the maximum asymmetry of the Solar motion about the Solar System's barycentre.

The three of the remaining four Indian mega famines started withing plus or minus 11 years of the maximum asymmetry of the Solar motion about the Solar System's barycentre. The following graph shows that there is a 1 in 4 chance the the next Indian mega famine could start sometime between 2018 and 2020.

Finally, it should be emphasized that the chance of a mega-famine occurring is only 1-in-4, and so there is a 3-in-4 chance that it will not occur. However, we believe that chance of this terrible tragedy is high enough that the Indian, Pakistani and Bangladeshi governments should consider making some contingency plans to help mitigate the huge potential loss of life.

The Planetary-Lunar-Climate Connection

2011-12-15T14:21:00.000-08:00

2008 Paper

http://www.wbabin.net/Science-Journals/Research%20Papers-Astrophysics/Download/3811

ABSTRACT

Evidence is presented to show that the phases of two of the Earth’s major climate systems, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), are related to changes in the Earth’s rotation rate. We find that the winter NAO index depends upon the time rate of change of the Earth’s length of day (LOD). In addition, we find that there is a remarkable correlation between the years where the phase of the PDO is most positive and the years where the deviation of the Earth’s LOD from its long-term trend is greatest.

In order to prove that the variations in the NAO and PDO indices are caused by changes in the Earth’s rotation rate, and not the other way around, we show that there is a strong correlation between the times of maximum deviation of the Earth’s LOD from its long-term trend and the times where there are abrupt asymmetries in the motion of the Sun about the CM of the Solar System.

At first glance, there does not appear to be an obvious physical phenomenon that would link the Sun’s motion about the Solar System’s CM to the Earth’s rotation rate. However, such a link could occur if the rate of precession of the line-of-nodes of the Moon’s orbit were synchronized with orbital periods of Terrestrial planets and Jupiter, which in turn would have to be synchronized with the orbital periods of the three remaining Jovian planets. In this case, the orbital periods of the Jovian planets, which cause the asymmetries in the Sun’s motion about the CM, would be synchronized with a phenomenon that is known to cause variations in the Earth’s rotation rate, namely the long term lunar tides.

The periodicities seen in the asymmetry of the solar motion about the CM are all submultiples of the 179 year Jose cycle, with the dominant periods being 1/5 (= 35.87 yrs), 1/9 (= 19.86 yrs) and 1/14 (12.78 yrs). In addition, the realignment time for the orbits of Venus, Earth and Jupiter is a ¼ of the 179 year Jose cycle (= 44.77 yrs).

Through what appears to be a “Grand Cosmic Conspiracy” we find that:

6.393 yrs = (the 179 year repetition cycle of the Solar motion about the CM) / 28

6.396 yrs = (the 44.77 year realignment time for Venus, Earth, and Jupiter) / 7

which just happens to be realignment time for orbits of the planets Venus, Earth and Mars (= 6.40 yrs).

The significance of the 6.40 year repetition period is given added weight by the fact that if you use it to modulate the sidereal year of the Earth/Moon system, the side-lobe period that is produced, almost perfectly matches the 2nd harmonic time interval over which there are the greatest changes in the meridional and zonal tidal stresses acting upon the Earth (1 ¼ TD = 433.2751 days = 1.18622 years, where TD is the draconitic year).

We know that the strongest planetary tidal forces acting on the lunar orbit come from the planets Venus, Mars and Jupiter. In addition, we known that, over the last 4.6 billion years, the Moon has slowly receded from the Earth. During the course of this lunar recession, there have been times when the orbital periods of Venus, Mars and Jupiter have been in resonance(s) with the precession rate for the line-of-nodes the lunar orbit. When these resonances have occurred, they would have greatly amplified the effects of the planetary tidal forces upon the lunar orbit. Hence, the observed synchronization between the precession rate of the line-of-nodes of the lunar orbit and the orbital periods of Venus, Earth, Mars and Jupiter, could simply be a cumulative fossil record left behind by these historical resonances.

Where is the rush of [FeXIV] emission to the Sun's poles?

2011-12-14T08:49:00.000-08:00

Here is an interesting plot which asks a very pertinent question about Solar cycle 24. Where is the cycle 24 [FeXIV] emission that usually reaches the Sun's pole around about the time of solar maximum? Is this an indicator that we still have a few years to wait till solar maximum or is it just telling us that cycle 24 will have a very weak maximum?

Reference: http://www.boulder.swri.edu/~deforest/SPD-sunspot-release/6_altrock_rttp.pdf

2011-12-03T04:28:00.001-08:00

THE WORLD MEAN TEMPERATURE WARMS(/COOLS) IF THE IMPACT OF EL NINOS EXCEEDS(/DOES NOT EXCEED) THE IMPACT OF LA NINAS OVER A GIVEN EPOCH.

Distinct Epochs in the Earth's Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and the Earth Rotation

A. The above graph is part of Figure 2.1. from Klyashtorin, L.B., Climate Change and Long-Term Fluctuations of Commercial Catches - The Possibility of Forecasting, FAO Fisheries Technical Paper No. 410, Rome FAO, 2001.

It shows the close correlation between the rotation rate of the Earth (measured by the Length-of-Day) and the zonal component of the Atmospheric Circulation Index (ACI). This graph shows that the zonal circulation patterns evident in the Earth's atmosphere can be broken up into four 30 year epochs starting in the years 1880-85 [LOD curve only], 1905-1910, 1940-1945 and 1970-1975.

B. The above graph comes from figure 2.2 of Klyashtorin, L.B., Climate Change and Long-Term Fluctuations of Commercial Catches - The Possibility of Forecasting, FAO Fisheries Technical Paper No. 410, Rome FAO, 2001.

The above graph shows that if you shift the LOD curve forward by ~ 6 years you get an excellent fit between LOD curve and the de-trended world mean temperature anomaly. Again the overall pattern can be broken up into four distinct 30 year epoch starting in the years 1880, 1910, 1940 and 1970.

C. The above graph comes from figure 2.23 of Klyashtorin, L.B., Climate Change and Long-Term Fluctuations of Commercial Catches - The Possibility of Forecasting, FAO Fisheries Technical Paper No. 410, Rome FAO, 2001.

The above graph shows that if you shift the ACI curve forward by ~ 4 years you get an excellent fit between LOD curve and the de-trended world mean temperature anomaly (dT). Again the overall pattern can be broken up into three distinct 30 year epoch starting in the years 1910, 1940 and 1970. The ACI index does not extend far enough back to set a starting date for the first epoch but the dT and LOD curves suggest a date sometime around 1875 to 1880.

The (Extended) Multivariate ENSO Index

The Multivariate ENSO Index is defined at the NOAA web site located at:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/

The Extended Multivariate ENSO Index is defined at the NOAA web site located at:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.ext/index.html

The important point to note is that Multivariate ENSO Index is the most precise way to follow variations in the ENSO phenomenon:

Negative values of the MEI representthe cold ENSO phase, a.k.a. La Niña, while positive MEI values representthe warm ENSO phase (El Niño).

The Cumulative Sum of the MEI

If the cumulative sum of the MEI over a given epoch steadily increase throughout the epoch then the impact of El Ninos exceed the impact of the La Ninas over this epoch.

If the cumulative sum of the MEI over a given epoch steadily decrease throughout the epoch then the impact of La Ninas exceed the impact of the El Ninos over this epoch.

The dotted red line in the above graph shows the cumulative sum of the extended Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) between the years 1880 and 2000 A.D. The cumulative sum has been taken over each of the four 30 year epochs, starting in the years 1880, 1910, 1940, and 1970.

The solid blue line in the above graph shows the cumulative sum of the extended Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) between the years 1886 and 2006 A.D. The cumulative sum has been taken over each of the four 30 year epochs, staring in the years 1886, 1916, 1946, and 1976.

It is clearly evident from this plot that whenever the cumulative MEI index is systematically decreasing over a 30 year epoch i.e. between 1886 and 1915, and between 1946 and 1975, the world's mean temperature decreases. It is also evident that whenever the cumulative MEI index is systematically increasing over a 30 year epoch i.e. between 1916 and 1945, and between 1976 and 2005, the world's mean temperature increases.

CONCLUSIONS

1. The ratio of the impact of El Ninos to the impact of La Ninas upon climate can be monitored over multi-decadal time scales using the cumulative MEI.

2. The cumulative MEI shows that since roughly 1880 there have been four main climate epochs, each 30 years long. There are have been two 30 year periods of cooling (i.e. from 1886 to 1915, and from 1946 to 1975) and two 30 year peiods of heating (i.e. from 1916 to 1945, and from 1976 to 2005).

3. Periods of warming occur whenever the impact of El Ninos exceeds the impact of La Ninas. Periods of cooling occur whenever the impact of La Ninas exceed the impact of El Ninos.

El Ninos and Extreme Proxigean Spring Tides

2011-11-12T16:02:00.001-08:00

Click here to see the video of my lecture at the Natural Climate Change Symposium in Melbourne on the 17th of June 2009

§Thanks to Bob Tisdale, we nowknow that the effect of El-Nino’s upon global temperature have beenunderestimated.

§The El Nino’s seems to be animportant player in the recent rapid warming of the worlds temperatures between1976 & 2005.

§But what if extreme tides caused by the Moon play a rolein triggering El Nino[/La Nina] events?

The are five conditions that must be met if the Earth is to experience the most extreme tidal events known as Extreme Proxigean Spring Tides:

A. When the Earth, Moon and Sun all align. These extremes in the tides are known as Spring Tides, occurring twice per month at New and Full Moon.

B. When the line-of-apse of the lunar orbit (connecting the points of perigee and apogee in the lunar orbit) align with the Sun (as seen from Earth) at New and Full Moon.

New Moon at perigee reoccurs once every 20.293 years. Of course, it takes half this time i.e. 10.147 years to go from a New Moon at perigee to a Full Moon at perigee. These types of extreme tides are known as Perigean Spring Tides.

[Note: technically, the term Perigean spring tides refers to slightly strong tides that are experienced when a New Moon is at perigee , however, the tides experienced when the Moon is at Full and at Perigee are almost equally as strong]

C. The strength of Perigean Spring Tides are enhanced by the fact that not all perigees are the same. The following graph shows that the Perigean distance of the Moon varies between roughly 370,000 and 356,000 km. If the Perigean Spring Tides occur when the Moon is at closest perigee (i.e. at or near to 356,000 km), they become known as Proxigean Spring Tides.

D. When the line-of-nodes (connecting the ascending and descending nodes of the lunar orbit) align with the Sun, as seen from the Earth, at times of New and Full Moon. If these types of alignments occur at or near the times of Perigean Spring Tides [often associated with solar and lunar eclipses], it further enhances the strength of these tidal event.

If the line-of-nodes of the Lunar orbit points along the Earth-Sun line at New moon, it will take 3.796 years for a New Moon to reoccur under the same circumstances. Of course, it takes half this time i.e. 1.898 years to go from a New Moon when the line-of-nodes are aligned with the Earth-Sun line, to a Full Moon under the same conditions.

E. The last factor that enhances Proxigean Spring Tides is the proximity of the Earth/Moon system to the Sun. Clearly, since roughly 1/3 of the Solar/Lunar tides are caused by the Sun, any tidal event will be stronger if it occurs at or near the Earth's/Moon's closets approach to the Sun. This occurs on January 3rd at a point in the Earth's orbit known as Perihelion. Any Proxigean Spring Tide that occurs at or near an alignment of the line-of-nodes of the lunar orbit, will be further enhanced if it occurs at or near Perihelion. These type of tides are known as Extreme Proxigean Spring Tides.

It is important to note that if a new Moon (or Full Moon) occurs at Perihelion, it will do so again once every 4.00, 15.00 and 19.00 Tropical years.

What happens when we take the seven major forcing periods for the Extreme Proxigean Spring Tides i.e. 20.293, 10.147, 3.796, 1.898, 4.00, 15.00 and 19.00 years. If you look at all the beat periods of these terms that are shorter than 7 years, you find that they almost perfectly match the observed peak frequencies observed in the periodogram of the SOI index between 1950 and 1997 (Sidorenkov 2000)

Extreme tidal effects are known to have an important influence upon the amount of up welling of cool deep ocean water in the world's oceans via deep ocean tidal dissipation.

The amount of power deposited bythe Sun and the Moon through deep-ocean tidal dissipation could be as much as 1Terra-Watt !

This is enough power to drive almosthalf all the up welling of deep cool ocean water around the world!!

and there is compelling evidence, as well, that shows that Perigean Spring Tides have an impact on the Earth's rotation.

So what does this have to do with the ENSO El Nino/LA Nina phenomenon?

Well, if you look at the type of Proxigean Tides that occur in the year of or the year prior to the onset of all significant El Nino events between 1800 and 1987, you find that only the most extreme of these events occur at this time.

The following two diagrams are designed to place the most extreme Proxigean Spring Tides in the bottom right hand corner and the weakest Proxigean Spring Tides in the top left hand corner. The day of year, starting on April the 1st (no joke intended here), is shown along the X-axis. This starting date has been chosen so that Perihelion occurs on or about day 278, placing it on the right hand side of the diagram. Along the Y-axis, we have the number of minutes an eclipsing New or Full Moon occurs before or after perigee. This axis has been chosen to ensure that strongest alignment between the Earth-Sun line, the line-of-nodes, and the line-of-apses occurs near the bottom of the diagram.

During years that DO NOT coincide with the year of or the year prior to the onset of all significant El Nino events between 1800 and 1987, you get systematically weaker proxigean tidal events.

CONCLUSIONS

There is evidence to support the claim that the Perigean Spring Tides affect the Earth's rotation rate.

Extreme tidal effects are known to have an important influence upon the amount of up welling of cool deep ocean water in the world's oceans via deep ocean tidal dissipation.

The beat periods of the forcing terms of the Extreme Perigean Spring Tides pump the Earth at frequencies that almost exactly match those that are observed in the periodogram of the SOI index between 1950 and 1997.

There is evidence to support the contention that most extreme lunar tidal events (i.e. the extreme Proxigean Spring Tides) must play a role in triggering the El Nino phenomenon between 1800 and 1987.

The PDO - a signature of the influence of long-term Lunar tides on ocean up whelming

2011-07-01T07:58:00.000-07:00

The (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) PDO signature is shown in the bottom two globe projections. The left global projection corresponds to a positive PDO, the right to a negative PDO. Compare both of these to the equipotential tidal surface formed by the 18.6 year Nodal tides.

The Equatorial Pacific Ocean moves up and down by +/- 7 to 8 mm every 18.6 years, in anti-phase to the North Pacific Ocean. It is possible that slow upward and downward movement of the ocean surface may be responsible for periodic up whelming of cool deep-ocean water on bi-decadal (18.6 year) and ~ 55.8 (= 3 x 18.6) year times scales.

1470 Year DO Events Transition from the Pleistocene into the Holocene

2010-10-07T08:00:00.000-07:00

The next DO event should start about 2154 A.D.

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE

Recent Grand Minima in the Level of Solar Activity and the Orbits of Venus and Jupiter

2010-10-07T06:58:00.000-07:00

CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO ENLARGE

Why are the Even-Odd Sunspot Cycle Maxima Synchronized with the Position Angle of Jupiter at the times of Earth-Venus Alignments?

2010-10-07T06:05:00.000-07:00

A Mechanism for Amplifying Planetary Tidal Forces in the Sun's Outer Convective Zone

2010-05-19T05:05:00.000-07:00

The image above is a cross-section of the Sun showing the rotational periods of a section of it's interior.
The rotation rates range from about 34.0 days near the poles to about 25.2 days in the Sun's equatorial convective zone. The dotted line that is located ~ 0.7 solar radii out from the centre of the Sun marks the positions the Solar Tachocline. This represents the boundary between the core of the Sun, were the main form of energy transport is by radiation, and the outer convective layer of the Sun, where the main form of energy transport is by convection.

The diagram shows that mean rotation period at a point just below the equatorial Tachocline is ~ 26.3 days, while the mean rotation period in the equatorial mid-convective layer is ~ 25.2 days.

Amazingly, if the rotation period of the point just below the equatorial Tachocline was in fact 26.3365 days, you would get an amplified resonance between the tides of the two dominant tidal forcing Terrestrial planets, Venus and Earth.

Consider the case where the Earth and Venus are aligned in their orbits about the Sun, roughly above the Equator of the Sun (note: these planets can be located up to +/- 7 degrees from the Sun's equator). Take a
point (A) just below the Tachocline boundary that is right on the Sun's equator, and a point (B) that is dierctly above it, at the mid (radial) point in the equatorial convective layer of the Sun. In this configuration, the tidal bulges produced by the combined gravitational forces of Venus and Earth upon the convective layer of the Sun would be superimposed upon one another.

Interestingly, however, you would find that it took 28.38305 days for point A to rotate once around the Sun and then catch up to advacing line connecting the centre of the Sun to the Earth, and 28.38315 days for point B to rotate once around the Sun and then catch up to the advancing line connecting the centre of the Sun to Venus. The net effect being, that rougly every 28.38310 days, the initial tidal bulges produced by the alignment of Venus and Earth would be reinforced by the Earth at the equatorial Tachocline boundary (i.e. point A) and by Venus at the mid-point in the Sun's equatorial convective layer (i.e. point B). More importantly, this reinforcement would repeat 103 times every 28.38310 days, until Venus and Earth again realigned themselves in roughly the same part of the sky roughly 8.0 sidereal years later, where the whole cycle would start all over again. This happens because:

102.9504 x 28.38310 days = 2922.05150 days = 8.0000016 sidereal years
110.9504 x 26.3365 days = 2922.04521 days = 7.9999844 sidereal years
115.9544 x 25.2 days = 2922.05088 days = 7.9999999 sidereal years

Note that Venus and Earth Align rougly once every 1.599 sidereal years and that five these alignments is:

5 x 1.599 sidereal years = 7.9950 sidereal years (difference from 8.0000 sidereal years =1.8256 days !)

*********************************************

Bottom line? This resonance may represent a way for the small tidal forces of Venus and Earth

acting on the convective layers of the Sun to be significantly amplified, so that they become influential in the dynamic process in the outer layers of the Sun.

*********************************************

POSSIBLE CONNECTION TO THE MOTION OF JUPITER & THE TERRESTRIAL PLANETS

It is interesting to note that:

*********************************************

4 x SVE = 6.3946 years SVE = synodic period of Venus and Earth
3 x SEM = 6.4059 years SEM = synodic period of Earth and Mars
7 x SVM = 6.3995 years SVM = synodic period of Venus and Mars

*********************************************

28 × SVE = 7 x (6.3946 yrs) = 44.763 yrs
69 × SVJ = 44.770 yrs = synodic period of Venus & Jupiter
41 × SEJ = 44.774 yrs = synodic period of Earth & Jupiter

20 × SMJ = 44.704 yrs = synodic period of Mars & Jupiter

*******************************************

4 x 1.599 yrs = 6.396 yrs

(Repetition time for the alignment of Venus, Earth and Mars)

5 x 1.599 yrs = 7.995 yrs

(Repetition time for the amplification mechanism discussed above)

7 x 1.599 yrs = 11.193 yrs

(Solar Sunspot Schwabe cycle)

14 x 1.599 yrs = 22.386 yrs

(Solar Hale cycle)

28 x 1.599 yrs = 44.772 yrs

(Alignment synodic periods Jupiter with Venus, Earth & Mars)
56 x 1.599 yrs = 89.544 yr

(Solar Gleissberg cycle)

112 x 1.559 yrs = 179.088 yrs

(Jose cycle - overall repetotion cycle for Jovian planets)

*****************************************

Which means that:

345 x Synodic period Venus/Jupiiter = 223.85 yrs
205 x Synodic period Earth/Jupiter = 223.87 yrs
100 x Synodic period Mars/Jupiter = 223.52 yrs

*****************************************

and that for the rotation periods of point A and B in the Sun's outer convective layers:

2883 x 28.38310 days = 81828.4773 days = 224.03026 (sidereal) years
3107 x 26.3365 days = 81827.5055 days = 224.02759 (sidereal) years
3247 x 25.2 days = 81824.400 days = 224.01901 (sidereal) years

with realignment errors of 1 to 3 days.

This is absolutely amazing!

Why Do the Long-Term Periodicities in the ENSO Appear in the Flux Optical Depth Anomalies for Water Vapor in the Earth's Atmosphere?

2010-03-26T21:38:00.000-07:00

http://landshape.org/enm/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/optical-depth-trend-1.png

Shown above, is the flux optical depth anomalie for the Earth's atmosphere between 1948 and 2007. It turns out that this is a rough measure the total column density of water vapor in the Earth's atmosphere from year to year over this time period.

Shown below, is a comparison between the polar Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of the flux optical depth anomalie between 1964 and 2001, and a periodogram of the ENSO/SOI over the same time period.

[N. Sidorenkov, Astronomy Reports, Vol. 44, No. 6, 2000, pp 414 - 419, translated from Astronomischeskii Zhurnal, Vol. 77, No. 6, 2000, pp 474 - 480]

Remarkebly, the 6.2 (& 6.0), 4.8, 3.6, 2.4, and 2.1 year periodicities in the ENSO/SOI periodogram of Siderenkov (2000), are also clearly evident in the FFT of the flux optical depth anomalie data.

Four of these six long-term periodicities (i.e. 2.4, 3.6, 4.8, and 6.0 years) are sub-harmonics of the 1.2 year period of the Earth's free nutation i.e. the Chandler Wobble. In addition, all six of the long-term periodicities are very close to the super-harmonics of the 18.6 year period of the Earth's forced nutation (i.e. 6.2, 4.7, 3.7, 2.3, and 2.1 years) ie. the periodic precession of the line-of-nodes of the Lunar orbit.

This data tells us that the ENSO must play a major role in setting the overall column density of water vapor in the Earth's atmosphere. In addition, it indicates that the ENSO must also be an important factor in setting the World's means temperature, since water vapour is the dominant green-house gas in the Earth's atmosphere.

What is even more remarkelable, is the fact that common frequencies seen in the two data sets are simply those that would be expected if ENSO phenomenon was the resonant response of the Earth's (atmospheric/oceanic) climate system brought about by a coupling between the Earth's forced (18.6 year Nodical Lunar Cycle) and unforced (1.2 year Chandler Wobble) nutations.

Can we predict when the PDO will turn positive again?

2010-03-17T05:43:00.000-07:00

The 60 year periodicity in the Earth's Trade Winds

2010-03-17T04:48:00.000-07:00

Shown above is an expanded plot of the variation of the All India Summer Monsoon rainfall between about 1828 and 1990 that appears in the top right hand corner of the image below.

The synchronization between the Solar Inertial Motion and the Lunar Orbit

2010-03-15T06:57:00.000-07:00

Figure 6. The main curve shows the distance of the centre-of-mass of the Solar system from the sub-Jupiter point between 1220 and 2020 A.D. The sub-Jupiter point1 is located just above the solar surface on a line joining the centre of the Sun to Jupiter. Marked above this curve are years in which the Earth experienced exceptionally strong tidal forces over the last 800 years.

Figure 6 shows that the times when Solar/Lunar tides had their greatest impact upon the Earth are closely synchronized with the times of greatest asymmetry in the Solar Inertial Motion (SIM). Over the last 800 years, the Earth has experience exceptionally strong tidal forces in the years 1247, 1433, 1610, 1787 and 1974 (Keeling and Whorf, 1997). A close inspection of Figure 6 shows that these exceptionally strong tidal forces closely correspond in time to the first peak in the asymmetry of the SIM that occurs just after a period low asymmetry. These first peaks in asymmetry in the SIM occur in the years 1251, 1432, 1611, 1791, and 1971, closely correspond the years of peak tidal force.

Thus, there appear to be periodic alignments between the lunar apsides, syzygies and lunar nodes that occur at almost exactly the same times that the SIM becomes most asymmetric for the first time after a period of low asymmetry in the SIM. It means that precession and stretching of the Lunar orbit (i.e. the factors that control the long-term variation of the lunar tides that are experienced here on Earth) are almost perfectly synchronized with the SIM.

Of course, the orbital periods of Jupiter and the other Jovian planets are responsible for the

periodicities observed in the motion of the Sun about the Solar Sytem barycentre. Hence, the apparent link between the Sun's barycentric motion and the orbit ofthe Moon may just be an artifact of the fact that both are heavily influenced by the periodicities in the motion of the Jovian planets.

The Fingerprint of the Cause of the 2009/2010 El Nino

2009-11-13T18:02:00.000-08:00

Here is fingerprint of the instigator of the latest "cold" El Nino event in the Pacific ocean.

There were two proxigean spring tides in late June and July. The New Moon on July 21st of this year was an extreme proxigean spring tide event [as it coincided with the Solar eclispe on July 21-22.

It was the lead up to these two proxigean spring tides which set of the series of events in the Pacific Ocean that will produce a full blown El Nino around December 2009.

How does the pattern in sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific know about the motion of the Sun about the Solar System's barycentre

2009-10-22T05:50:00.000-07:00

The upper curve in the second graph shows the PDO reconstruction of D’Arrigo et al. (2001) between 1707 and 1972. The reconstruction has been smoothed with a 15-year running mean filter to eliminate short-term fluctuations. Superimposed on this PDO reconstruction is the instrumental mean annual PDO index (Mantua 2007) which extends the PDO series up to the year 2000. The lower curve in the second graph shows the absolute deviation of the Earth’s LOD from its long-term trend between 1656 to 2005. The data in this figure has also been smoothed with a 15-year running mean filter.

A comparison between the upper and lower curves in the second graph shows that there is a remarkable agreement between the years of the peak (absolute) deviations of the LOD from the long-term trend and the years where the phase of the PDO reconstruction is most positive. While the correlation is not perfect, it is convincing enough to conclude the PDO index is another good example of a climate system that is directly associated with changes in the Earth's rotation rate.

What is even more remarkable is the fact that LOD variations preceed those seen in the PDO by an average of eight years. So whatever causes the deviations in the LOD from its long-term trend must also be responsible for flipping the phase of the PDO.

The solid curve in the first graph (above) shows the absolute deviation of the Earth’s LOD from its long-term trend between 1656 to 2005. The data in this figure has also been smoothed with a 15-year running mean filter. Superimposed on this plot is a scaled version of the assymmtery in the Sun's motion about the centre-of-mass of the Solar System. The reader can see for themselves that, from 1700 to 2000 A.D., on every occasion where the Sun has experienced a maximum in the asymmetry of its motion about the CM of the Solar System, the Earth has also experienced a significant deviation in its LOD from that expected from the long-term trends.

The question is: "How does the pattern in sea surface temperatures in the Northern Pacific ocean (i.e. the PDO) know about the postion of the Sun with respect to the barycentre of the Solar System?"

Which came first, the chicken or the egg?

2009-10-17T17:31:00.000-07:00

Many people argue that the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) Index is largely a reddened response to El-Nino-ENSO forcing from the tropical Pacific ocean (see * below). However, the graph above shows that this view is not compatible with the observations.

The lower of the two graphs in this figure shows the phase of the PDO from 1660 to 2000 A.D., as indicated by proxy tree-ring data of Vernon and Franks (2006). Above it is a graph of the (running) mean intensity of El Nino events over the same time period, as published from proxy tree-ring data by Gergis and Fowler (2006) [Advances in GeoScience, 6, pp. 173 - 179, 2006].

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that every time the PDO switches positive, there is a progressive increase in the mean intensity of El Nino events, and every time the PDO switches negative, there is a progressive decrease in the mean intensity of El Nino events.

Simple causational logic tells you that it is the El Nino that is reponding to the long term changes in the PDO and not the other way around. This evidence alone, should be enough to completly invalidate the models of Newman et al. [2003] and Shakun and Sharman (2009) [Geophysical Research Letters].

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/16/connecting-enso-pdv-and-the-north-and-south-pacific/#comments

A much more likley explanation for the results that these authors are getting is that the underlying causal mechanism for both the El-Nino-ENSO phenomenon and the PDO are linked.

In this blog, I propose to show that the common underlying mechanism responsible for the changes seen in the ENSO and the PDO are the lunar tides and their effect upon the up-welling cool deep ocean water in the Pacific ocean.

Why do temperature anomalies in the North Pacific correlate with changes in the Earth's LOD?

2008-08-02T07:52:00.000-07:00

Here is something to wet the pallet.

What you see (above) is a plot of the smoothed (w/85 month filter) sea surface temperature annomalies of the Northern Pacific (0 to 65 Deg N) between January 1854 and May 2008 (top graph) plotted above the Earth's LOD (Length-of-Day). Note that the LOD has been shifted by roughly 8 years forward in time compared to the sea surface temperature anomaly data. Note the remarkable correlation between these two paramemters.

Subtle varaitions in the Earth's LOD appear to be followed eight years latter by similar variations in the sea surface temperatures. Also note that I am not claiming that correlation means causation.

In fact, I will try to show that both of these parameters are in fact driven by long term variations in the lunar tides.