tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post1162218271827158989..comments2023-03-13T07:57:36.570-07:00Comments on Astro-Climate-Connection: There is a natural Gleissberg-like Cycle in the Lunar tidal stresses placed upon the Earth Ninderthanahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-71258165491499657732016-04-07T06:00:34.330-07:002016-04-07T06:00:34.330-07:00When I say "enormous secular contribution&quo...When I say "enormous secular contribution", I don't necessarily mean in scale, but in proportion. From my work using the CSALT model, the contribution from "effective" CO2 (i.e. CO2 plus other GHGs and H20 feedback) is at least 90% of the rising trend.<br /><br />I rarely comment on the scale aspect of AGW, because a more existential issue is the decline of the once plentiful crude oil supply. There is no getting around that one.<br /><br />What I am doing is gap analysis -- filling in the details on the general consensus, stuff that no one else seems to want to do.@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-82181624201872213432016-04-07T03:27:48.339-07:002016-04-07T03:27:48.339-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Ninderthanahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-1818237349742910232016-04-07T03:26:53.964-07:002016-04-07T03:26:53.964-07:00Whut - Amen! Except I would say "...and the m...Whut - Amen! Except I would say "...and the minor secular contribution of aCO2 to the future, as yet unknown, trend [in global mean temperature] can be more clearly accounted for." Ninderthanahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00390339452469614741noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-44638689674201059642016-04-06T12:46:18.645-07:002016-04-06T12:46:18.645-07:00It will be great if someone can formulate a determ...It will be great if someone can formulate a deterministic non-chaotic fit to ENSO. Then one of the largest natural contributors to the global surface temperature time-series can be compensated for, and the enormous secular contribution of aCO2 to the rising trend can be more clearly accounted for.<br />@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-87720109935224825892016-04-05T08:23:50.366-07:002016-04-05T08:23:50.366-07:00Yes. I started with frequencies from an analysis i...Yes. I started with frequencies from an analysis in an article by Theodor Landscheidt. I let them float and the fit was still very poor. As the LOD is most likely a main factor in El NINO formation and the LOD model is in part essentially four lunar and two earth frequencies riding on the 2xVEJ and JS axial frequency curve, I modulated the phases of the base frequencies with these two. The fit immediately locked with r^2=0.82. But this model is still missing something and is too sensitive. It needs a re-think.R J Salvadornoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-58501762114078989392016-04-04T22:17:03.131-07:002016-04-04T22:17:03.131-07:00In reply to RJ Salvador, So I take it that your ex...In reply to RJ Salvador, So I take it that your extrapolated fit to ENSO for the 70 years prior to 1950 is poor? <br />@whuthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18297101284358849575noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2965766791260152878.post-76111423359387378242016-04-04T07:25:35.655-07:002016-04-04T07:25:35.655-07:00Ian, you couldn't have made it any more clear....Ian, you couldn't have made it any more clear. This work you have done on LOD and on the moons position with respect to El NINO is excellence in science.<br />As I stated on the Tallbloke blog, I can pass a curve through NOAA El NINO data but I have no confidence in an extension of the curve. And I had to modulate the phasing of the base frequencies with 2 times the VEJ and the Jupiter/Saturn axial.<br />You may find the base frequencies interesting and I list them below:<br />Years<br /> 1.50994<br />2.12028<br />2.56617<br />2.79465<br />3.45452<br />4.91751<br />6.62037<br />12.8152<br />They may suggest frequencies to you that are close to these that have physical meaning.<br /> R J Salvadornoreply@blogger.com